000
WTNT42 KNHC 292030
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

THE SHEAR HAS BEATEN KAREN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND BASICALLY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH STRONG SQUALLS IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
OR THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.

AT THIS POINT...I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE IF KAREN IS GOING TO
REGENERATE OR NOT. MODELS HAVE THE LUXURY OF GOING BACK AND FORTH
IN STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING KAREN IN EACH RUN...BUT I DON'T. THE
BEST WE CAN DO IS TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY...AND IF IT COMES
BACK...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...REINITIATE ADVISORIES.
FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 17.3N  54.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  55.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA