Abra que esperar el milagro,de sobra sabemos lo que izo gordon en pocas horas,o sanba en esto momentos,mas aun sabiendo que a Nadine a un le queda recorrido " La esperanza lo ultimo que se pierde"

Mejoran los pronósticos y ahora CNH lo manda como huracán a las Azores

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140243
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
CDO-LIKE PATTERN WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES. THE SIGNALS FOR THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ARE MIXED. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT IS AFFECTING NADINE...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE
BY 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE MAY BE IN A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
WARM SSTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AT DAYS
3 THROUGH 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE BUT IS BELOW THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/13...AS NADINE IS NOW SITUATED ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AS NADINE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. A LARGE SPREAD PERSISTS IN THE TRACK MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE A FAR LEFT
OUTLIER SHOWING NADINE TURNING NORTHWARD AFTER 3 DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD IS SOUTH OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERNMOST MODEL GROUP. THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 25.0N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 26.8N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 29.1N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 30.7N  52.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 31.4N  50.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 32.3N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 33.5N  38.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 35.5N  32.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140844
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

...NADINE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 54.1W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NADINE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ANY STRENGTHENING
WOULD ALLOW NADINE TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Lo cierto es que según el CNH sigue presentando problemas, debido a la cizalladura sobre todo... Y peor lo va a pasar, según el boletín, porque se presentan un par de días en que esa cizalladura va a aumentar. Después, en su camino a Azores, debe relajarse para conseguir la categoría de huracán entocnes... Veremos :O*

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140844
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED.  THIS CHANGE MAY BE DUE TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND
BY CIMSS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55
KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

NADINE CONTINUES ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
340/13.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AS
NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH THAT TIME.  A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD PERSISTS IN THE TRACK
MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.  THE NOGAPS IS A FAR LEFT OUTLIER...SHOWING
A NORTHWARD MOTION BY 120 HR.  THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE ON THE
NORTHERN OR LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE CLUSTER...WHILE
THE THE ECMWF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR
RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER.  THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFTED OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT
LIES NEAR THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-40 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  WHILE MUCH
OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...THIS
LOOKS OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR VALUES.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 60 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HR...AND IT WOULD
BE NO SURPRISE IF NADINE WEAKENED INSTEAD.  THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER 48 HR...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
LGEM MODEL AND IS WEAKER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 26.3N  54.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 28.1N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 30.1N  53.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 31.1N  51.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 31.4N  48.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 32.0N  43.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 33.5N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Parece que ya está girando hacia el NE... :O*

Nadine esta pasando por un momento crucial,si os fijais en el dvorak esta girando direccion norte noreste.

Preciosa la interacción entre los dos sistemas... por un lado, la pequeña borrasca de las Azores y por otro, NADINE... :O*

La tormenta tropical NADINE Consultivo Público

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000
WTNT34 TJSJ 141439
TCPAT4

BOLETÍN
TORMENTA TROPICAL NADINE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL142012
EMITIDA POR EL Centro de Predicción Hidrometeorológica College Park MD
1100 AM AST VIERNES 14 de septiembre 2012

NADINE ... MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD ...


RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST ... 1500 UTC ... INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN ... 28.0N 53.5W
ACERCA DE MI 910 ... 1465 KM NE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
ACERCA DE MI 735 ... 1185 KM DE ESE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ... 70 MPH ... 110 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL ... N O 360 GRADOS A 16 MPH ... 26 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ... 988 MB ... 29.18 PULGADAS


RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
--------------------
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
------------------------------
A LAS 1100 AM AST ... 1500 UTC ... EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Nadine estaba
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.0 NORTE ... LONGITUD 53.5 OESTE. Nadine es
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH ... 26 KM / H...AND UN GIRO HACIA
EL NORESTE Y ESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD SE ESPERA
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH ... 110 KM / H...WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS ... y Nadine podría convertirse en huracán el domingo.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS ... 370 KM
DESDE EL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 988 MB ... 29.18 PULGADAS.


RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
----------------------
NINGUNO.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA ... 500 PM AST.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH / HAMRICK / FRACASSO