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FOURTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, TD, O, 2012091012, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL912012
AL, 91, 2012090712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 157W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090718, , BEST, 0, 138N, 173W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090800, , BEST, 0, 141N, 188W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090806, , BEST, 0, 142N, 201W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2012090812, , BEST, 0, 142N, 214W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2012090818, , BEST, 0, 143N, 230W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2012090900, , BEST, 0, 144N, 250W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2012090906, , BEST, 0, 145N, 271W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 250, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2012090912, , BEST, 0, 146N, 292W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 314W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012091000, , BEST, 0, 150N, 332W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2012091006, , BEST, 0, 151N, 354W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,
Ya tenemos la depresión tropical, se ha hecho rogar!!
000
WTNT44 KNHC 111439
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
TO T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...SUPPORTING THE DESIGNATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD...OR 275/9 KT. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD BE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD TO 50W. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE BEING ERODED BY A
LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE
AZORES...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWARD BY
DAY 4 AND NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS WHEN THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO LAG
BEHIND THE OTHER MODELS...BUT THIS IS COMPENSATED FOR IN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BY THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST INDICATES A TRACK LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER SCENARIO...
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BORDERED BY DRY
SAHARAN AIR TO ITS NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALSO DRAWING
IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER IS SCANT...IT MIGHT TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT CAN MIX OUT SOME OF THE DRY AIR. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME. STRENGTHENING
COULD BE ARRESTED IN 4-5 DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
WESTERLY SHEAR. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY
MODELS AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS BEING 20-25 KT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER. SINCE
THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO...IS DESIGNED TO
BETTER HANDLE CHANGES IN THE SHEAR AT THE LONGER FORECAST TIMES...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 16.3N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.0N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 18.3N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 19.8N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 21.4N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 25.0N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 28.5N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 30.5N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT44 KNHC 112034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF TD
FOURTEEN...AND CLOUDINESS HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS REMAIN T2.5 FROM
TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB. SINCE THERE IS NOT YET CONSENSUS FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAY BE AN INDICATION
THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOON. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
HAVE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO DUE TO LIGHT
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN THAT TIME SPAN. THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY DAY 4. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTED BY
20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN FACT...THE LGEM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING OF ALL THE INTENSITY MODELS AND BARELY
BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 50 KT. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING ON DAY 5 DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SHEAR.
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND IT NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 305/10 KT.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING...WITH THE
DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE ONE NOTEWORTHY POINT IS THAT THE
NEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM THE OTHER TRACK MODELS...
THIS TIME SHOWING A STRONGER EASTWARD MOTION AND A SHARPER
RECURVATURE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 17.5N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 18.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 19.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.4N 50.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 23.2N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 30.0N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 31.5N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT44 KNHC 120231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT.
THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
NADINE...THE FOURTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 KT. NADINE MADE A SLIGHT JOG
TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
TRANSIENT MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
CENTER...THE VORTEX COLUMN SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY DEEPER AND MORE
STABLE...RESULTING IN LESS WOBBLE IN THE TRACK MOTION. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON
NADINE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ROUGHLY 55W LONGITUDE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW SOON AND HOW MUCH NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE ON DAYS 3-5. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON DAY 4...AND TOWARD
THE EAST ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT
INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO
FEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS EXISTS OWING TO THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND OTHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NADINE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 17.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 18.9N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 20.5N 49.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 22.2N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 24.4N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 28.0N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 30.0N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 31.5N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Bien.......... Ya tenemos a NADINE... y habrá que mirar bien lo que dicen los modelos a estas horas. Parece que el europeo lo manda como un coloso hacia Azores, según me ha comentado Santi vía FB.
La verdad que para España falta mucho y ya sabemos que al final,tanto puede morir frente a las costas de portugal como el anterior en remanent low,o puede girar de repente hacia el NW y pasar aun mas alla de Galicia,pero si parece claro que cuando menos Madeira y Azores deberian estar vigilantes,y si toma camino de Madeira,habria que pensar en el SW de España,y tomar como referencia aquel famoso Vince...pero la verdad faltan muchisimas horas..
¿¿De donde han salido esas lluvias para Almeria costa y Granada?
Desde mi incultura absoluta sobre estos temas.... ¿Podría este posible huracán sufrir algún cambio a baja subtropical o algo así? No sé si me explico. Es que sino cuando el huracán toque las frías aguas de la corriente fría que baja por la costas de Portugal morirá rapidamente....
000
WTNT44 KNHC 120843
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012
NADINE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE FORMATION OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB. IN ADDITION...RECENT AUTOMATED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE NEAR 45 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS BREAK TO BECOME EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED BY 72 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS NEAR
OR NORTH OF BERMUDA. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER NADINE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH. THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
AFTER 72 HR...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
20N...LEAVING NADINE IN WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UKMET SHOWS NADINE GOING NORTHWARD AND
BECOMING ENTANGLED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER LOW...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD MOTION. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES. THIS PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
NADINE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LAST? THE SHIPS
MODEL FORECASTS WESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT TO DEVELOP WITHIN 24
HR...ALTHOUGH THE SOURCE OF THIS IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE GFS
MODEL FIELDS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NADINE BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR DESPITE THE SHEAR FORECAST...SO THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE. THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS THE SHEAR
DOES NOT OCCUR AND NADINE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL...
WHICH SHOWS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SHORT
TERM...FROM 72-120 HR NADINE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER AT LEAST 20-25
KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION AND START A WEAKENING TREND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 18.6N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 19.7N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 21.4N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 23.3N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 25.4N 53.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 29.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 31.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 32.5N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Que buena animación Storm127!! :D1 Vaya mapas nos muestra el GFS, eso si, a muchísimas horas, pero mola! :D
http://oi49.tinypic.com/16jmvcj.jpg (http://oi49.tinypic.com/16jmvcj.jpg)
Fijáos en este mapa histórico de tormentas tropicales para el mes de septiembre, en posiciones similares a la que ocupa hoy NADINE (2 grados alrededor).Gale, siempre hay una primera vez..
Bien.......... Ya tenemos a NADINE... y habrá que mirar bien lo que dicen los modelos a estas horas. Parece que el europeo lo manda como un coloso hacia Azores, según me ha comentado Santi vía FB.
Este es el rastro de Nadine visto por el ECMWF de hoy a las 00 UTC y GFS 00 UTC. Atención a Madeira....
ECMWF
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-EfQZeCw6zEk/UFA5e1WOBtI/AAAAAAAACPA/D-vaYkWDcUw/s812/Recm2401.gif
GFS
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-TnRFkEjf7Tg/UFA5fzXwqOI/AAAAAAAACPI/vmUmAvBIS1M/s790/Rtavn1921.png)
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-g_DMFCwq5kg/UFA5f6gY2nI/AAAAAAAACPM/3jdmhcDr8K0/s790/Rtavn2401.png)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 121443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE SHOWS A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. USING A BLEND OF
THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.
ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHEAR OVER NADINE WITH
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM MAY BE ASSISTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...FROM
72 HOURS AND BEYOND NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BELT OF
STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE
LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 25-30 KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM AND CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
CENTER FIXES SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...
AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. NADINE CONTINUES TO
HEAD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BEYOND 72 HOURS...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND THE QUICKER 0600 UTC GFS SOLUTION.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1215 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS...WHICH SAMPLED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
REVEALED A LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 19.1N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.3N 49.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.1N 51.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.1N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 26.3N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 30.0N 52.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 32.5N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 34.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH
Hola,
Vamos a ver la evolucion de NADINE, esto lo he encontrado en una web NASA
NASA's unmanned Global Hawk drone completed its first full scientific mission this morning (Sept. 12), finishing a 26-hour flight that took photos and gathered information on newly formed Tropical Storm Nadine
Dia veraniego con algunas nubes altas en aumento . Temperaturas calurosas .
A parte , el meteograma sigue viendo algo , veremos en que queda .
Lo del GFS de la proxima semana es para guardar aunque no nos vaya a afectar . Menuda tormenta tropical Nadine se va a comer Madeira :o :o :o :o :o ??? ??? ::) ::)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/16opz4.gif)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/9kvuxk.gif)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2941eg8.gif)
(http://i49.tinypic.com/2qb53tg.gif)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/hupw2h.gif)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2r6dwt2.gif)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 122032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH A COMMA-TYPE
CLOUD APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE COULD BE ERODING CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN SIZE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM BOTH AGENCIES. ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NADINE
MOVES NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NEAR AND OVER NADINE.
THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS
MORE WEAKENING THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD. WHILE THE 1200 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE 1200 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT.
UNTIL THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT BE INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE HEADING OF THE STORM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE
MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 310/14. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF..
HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE 4- AND 5-DAY NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.
THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER FOR TRACK PREDICTION THIS
YEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 20.0N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 21.3N 50.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 23.3N 52.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 25.5N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 28.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 31.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 32.5N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH
Cito a Egne, que ha posteado unos mapas increíbles de la salida de las 00 UTC de hoy del GFS :D1
A ver mañana qué dice la próxima de las 00.Dia veraniego con algunas nubes altas en aumento . Temperaturas calurosas .
A parte , el meteograma sigue viendo algo , veremos en que queda .
Lo del GFS de la proxima semana es para guardar aunque no nos vaya a afectar . Menuda tormenta tropical Nadine se va a comer Madeira :o :o :o :o :o ??? ??? ::) ::)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/16opz4.gif)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/9kvuxk.gif)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2941eg8.gif)
(http://i49.tinypic.com/2qb53tg.gif)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/hupw2h.gif)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2r6dwt2.gif)
Hola,queria lanzar una duda,dejando claro que no soy un entendido en la materia,pero comparando la trayectoria de Gordon con Nadine y las circustancias,no creeis que Nadine puede llegar a ser mas poderoso que Gordon y sorprendernos?
Cito a Egne, que ha posteado unos mapas increíbles de la salida de las 00 UTC de hoy del GFS :D1
A ver mañana qué dice la próxima de las 00.Dia veraniego con algunas nubes altas en aumento . Temperaturas calurosas .
A parte , el meteograma sigue viendo algo , veremos en que queda .
Lo del GFS de la proxima semana es para guardar aunque no nos vaya a afectar . Menuda tormenta tropical Nadine se va a comer Madeira :o :o :o :o :o ??? ??? ::) ::)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/16opz4.gif)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/9kvuxk.gif)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2941eg8.gif)
(http://i49.tinypic.com/2qb53tg.gif)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/hupw2h.gif)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2r6dwt2.gif)
00
WTNT44 KNHC 130844
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 13 2012
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF NADINE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A RECENT AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A
MID-LEVEL EYE DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF OF THE APPARENT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM
CIMSS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A ASCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY SUPPORTS WINDS OF AT LEAST 55-60 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE INITIAL WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN REVISED A LITTLE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/14. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND DURING THE NEXT 48 HR THE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE AROUND THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 48 HR...THE
GUIDANCE BECOMES SERIOUSLY DIVERGENT. THE GFDL FORECASTS A
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL AND
CONSENSUS MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. THIS SPREAD
SEEMS TO RESULT FROM HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
NADINE...A DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO BE TO ITS EAST...AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERLIES NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND. AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH OF THE MODELS
HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE INTERACTIONS. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...AND IT LIES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN THE
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THE WINDOW FOR NADINE TO STRENGTHEN MAY BE CLOSING. IN ADDITION TO
THE CURRENT INCREASE IN SHEAR...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR NADINE TO BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 24 HR...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER AT LEAST 20-30 KT OF WESTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
THE SHEAR COULD SUBSIDE AFTER 72 HR...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
HOW NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OTHER SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES
THE FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW STRENGTHENING DURING THAT PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT LESS INTENSE THAN...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST USING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 21.5N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 23.1N 52.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 25.4N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.6N 54.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 29.3N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 31.5N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 34.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Según los modelos, el domingo se debilitaría y se volvería otra vez a tormenta tropical... Abra que esperar ::)
Me temo que el aire seco que tiene a su alrededor le está haciendo algo de pupa, además de la cizalladura que se comenta en el último informe del CNH de hace unas pocas horas...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4293/2012AL14_1KMSRVIS_201209131345_dot7.GIF)
Espectacular esa imagen Javi ;D :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1 De lujo ese trazo a modo de chispitas alrededor de la tormenta de polvo... Mierda de SAL, la de caña que está dando este año a los ciclones tropicales atlánticos ::)
Y la animación de Iván, muy muy muy buena... Pero falta mucho todavía. El comportamiento que tendrá NADINE va a ser complicado de pronosticar...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 140243
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
CDO-LIKE PATTERN WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES. THE SIGNALS FOR THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ARE MIXED. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT IS AFFECTING NADINE...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE
BY 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE MAY BE IN A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
WARM SSTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AT DAYS
3 THROUGH 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE BUT IS BELOW THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/13...AS NADINE IS NOW SITUATED ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AS NADINE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. A LARGE SPREAD PERSISTS IN THE TRACK MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE A FAR LEFT
OUTLIER SHOWING NADINE TURNING NORTHWARD AFTER 3 DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD IS SOUTH OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERNMOST MODEL GROUP. THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 25.0N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 26.8N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 30.7N 52.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 31.4N 50.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 32.3N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 33.5N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 35.5N 32.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 140844
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED. THIS CHANGE MAY BE DUE TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND
BY CIMSS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55
KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
NADINE CONTINUES ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
340/13. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AS
NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH THAT TIME. A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD PERSISTS IN THE TRACK
MODELS AFTER THAT TIME. THE NOGAPS IS A FAR LEFT OUTLIER...SHOWING
A NORTHWARD MOTION BY 120 HR. THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE ON THE
NORTHERN OR LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE CLUSTER...WHILE
THE THE ECMWF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR
RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFTED OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT
LIES NEAR THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-40 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. WHILE MUCH
OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...THIS
LOOKS OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR VALUES. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 60 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HR...AND IT WOULD
BE NO SURPRISE IF NADINE WEAKENED INSTEAD. THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER 48 HR...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
LGEM MODEL AND IS WEAKER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 26.3N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 28.1N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 30.1N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 31.1N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 31.4N 48.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 32.0N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 141440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012
NADINE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LOW CLOUD LINES ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB REMAIN AT 65 AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR
NADINE HAS BEEN A BIT CHALLENGING AS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED IN A
MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 65-70W LONGITUDE HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER NADINE. AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIMINISH. THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE MODELS INDICATE
THAT SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR IS LIKELY IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD
GIVE NADINE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT A CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM...HFIP...MODELS.
NADINE HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 360/14. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN EASTWARD IN
THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE AZORES. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TO THE RIGHT/SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE
LEFT/NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 28.0N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 29.6N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 31.0N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 31.8N 46.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 32.5N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 34.5N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 36.5N 30.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/HAMRICK/FRACASSO
000
WTNT44 KNHC 142033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012
A 1624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE CONVECTION MAY BE
IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION...BUT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED
ABOUT HALF A DEGREE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO VERTICAL
SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN
TO 55 KT. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE SEEMS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
THIS MORNING AND DOES NOT LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT NADINE HAS
WEAKENED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF STRONG SHEAR BEING CANCELED OUT
BY THE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR DIRECTION.
AS A RESULT...THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY OVERALL...BUT DOES STILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HWRF
SHOWS NADINE STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING COLDER WATER. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING BY
DAY 5 THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
NADINE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 015/12 KT.
THE STORM IS ENTERING THE BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND IT
SHOULD TURN EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A NORTHEASTWARD
TURN IS THEN FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS NADINE APPROACHES A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW NEAR THE AZORES. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW FORECAST
HAS BEEN MOVED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AS WELL...SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED DUE-EAST MOTION FOR A TIME. THE NHC TRACK LIES VERY
CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 28.8N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 30.1N 52.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 30.9N 50.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 31.0N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 31.1N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 32.5N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 35.0N 33.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 37.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT44 KNHC 150246
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012
NADINE HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH
THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT
FROM TAFB TO 77 KT FROM SAB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THAT SOME
TILT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE BASED ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT IS AFFECTING
NADINE...AND THIS MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...ONLY
MINIMAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY
SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND TRENDS TOWARD THE LGEM BY DAY 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/12...AS NADINE IS MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL
ENTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A QUICK EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL ABOUT DAY 3. A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WHILE
THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR
THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 30.0N 52.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 30.8N 51.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 31.2N 48.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 31.1N 45.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 31.2N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 33.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 35.5N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 37.5N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 150852
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012
NADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING...
ALTHOUGH A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM
TAFB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE
76 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
NADINE CONTINUES ITS RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 050/13. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD IN
THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT
COULD MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. AFTER
THREE DAYS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THESE MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...AND THEN IS SHIFTED
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.
NADINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 25-35 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF SO WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. :O* ALL GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS AT LEAST 25-35 KT OF SHEAR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET FORECAST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO INTERACT WITH NADINE IN 72-96 HR...
WHICH COULD CHANGE THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...THE
RESULTS OF THIS INTERACTION ARE NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN ANY OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 30.7N 51.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 31.1N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 31.1N 46.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 31.0N 43.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 31.4N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 33.0N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 35.5N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 37.5N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 151449
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012
ALTHOUGH NADINE IS STILL A TILTED HURRICANE...THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED DEEP
CONVECTION NEARLY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB...SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT.
NADINE IS QUICKLY RECURVING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
070/13 KT. THE HURRICANE IS ENTERING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES...
AND NADINE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...A BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 3 WITH ANOTHER
DEEP-LAYER LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE SHOWING A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED WHILE NADINE IS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AND
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS. THE FORECASTS ARE VERY
SIMILAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE NEW ONE LYING BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS SUCH THAT
IT SHOULD TEMPER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS NADINE AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. COLDER WATER SHOULD ULTIMATELY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 30.9N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 31.0N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.9N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 31.7N 37.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 34.0N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 36.5N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Si sigue asi,no es de extranar que sea capaz de llegar a Cat 2,a ver si en el trascurso de la noche en el atlantico nos sorprende.
Hola, donde esta situada ahora y donde va a estar situada los pròximos 3 dias ni siendo categorìa 5.Lo ùnico de momento un mar de fondo del oeste...y tampoco como para tirar cohetes.Si sigue asi,no es de extranar que sea capaz de llegar a Cat 2,a ver si en el trascurso de la noche en el atlantico nos sorprende.
siendo categoria 2 podria afectar en algo a Canarias?
000
WTNT44 KNHC 152037
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2012
NADINE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE RAGGED THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DESPITE THE MORE
DISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 70 KT BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT
FROM SAB...AND A 70-KT ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.
NADINE HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/14 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF NADINE...AND THE HURRICANE MAY RESPOND IN
THE SHORT TERM BY MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST. HOWEVER...A
GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE
NADINE MOVES TOWARDS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
AZORES. THIS COMPLEX LOW IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE AZORES IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE ANOTHER LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES
WILL CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE FASTER MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING
NADINE COULD LIGHTEN UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FLATLINES THE INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 48
HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3 AS THE SHEAR
CONTINUES AND NADINE MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER
THAN 26C. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND JUST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING AT THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 30.8N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 30.7N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 30.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 38.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 32.4N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 35.0N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 37.0N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 38.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
El panel del GFS da miedo... por los habitantes de las Azores. Si se cumple, y NADINE se queda estacionario sobre o cerca de las islas, realizando la transición extratropical allí, se van a hinchar a agua... Lluvias muy intensas y persistentes!
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9330/avnpanel4_pck9.gif (http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9330/avnpanel4_pck9.gif)
Buafff... Seis días bajo la influencia de una tormenta tropical, con vientos y lluvias intensas... :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X
Canarias posiblemente reciba mar de fondo los próximos 4-5 días.... ::)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 170253
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LESS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST AND T- AND CI-NUMBERS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THE SHEAR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
WEAKENING...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE LACK OF WEAKENING COULD BE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF
NADINE AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE
WEST. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND
ONLY PREDICTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE
IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AND HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/16 KT. AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF NADINE AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOME QUITE
DIVERGENT AS THEY DEPICT VARYING INTERACTIONS OF NADINE AND THE
UPPER-LOW. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE NHC
FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
ALTHOUGH NADINE HAS RECENTLY TAKEN ON A LESS TROPICAL APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE NADINE TO TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. INSTEAD...THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW IN A FEW DAYS...NADINE WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS TRANSFORMATION IS FORECAST TO
BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 31.4N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 32.1N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 33.2N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 34.4N 32.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 35.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 37.0N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 37.5N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 37.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
En cualquier caso, ojo porque esto ya es un claro aviso de lo que nos puede deparar la próxima temporada. Ya pasados de la Luna Nueva estamos ya inmersos en la luna de septiembre, y ¡¡¡ qué buen comienzo está teniendo !!! Ya vamos apuntando cositas para el periodo comprendido entre la Luna Nueva y los alrededores del Cuarto Creciente y el final de la Luna Descendente ... (y de características tropicalísimas )
000
WTNT44 KNHC 180257
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE
THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
COLDER CLOUD TOPS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING NADINE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.
NADINE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED...AND IT IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OR 045 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR SO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING LESS DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NADINE IN
3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD....THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
CYCLONE MOVES. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH NADINE SO FAR.
NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER A LITTLE COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE STORM ABOUT
THE SAME STRENGTH AS THE CYCLONE DERIVES SOME ENERGY FROM MID-
LATITUDE SOURCES. WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NADINE
COULD BEGIN THE TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 37.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 36.7N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 35.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 32.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Viernes día 21
(http://i45.tinypic.com/xq9o1.jpg)
Pues buena mar de fondo va a recibir Canarias :P
´
Yo lo interpreto así, desde mi punta vista.
En este mapa que nos muestra el Gfs,vemos como tenemos un claro bloqueo anticiclonico entre Canada y Europa (Francia),donde la baja que tenemos actualmente en Las Azores queda atrapada en esa zona durante varios días, mientras que el sistema tropical en el centro del Atlántico tiene un claro camino al Norte,pero este dicho sistema tropical se encontrará con un bloqueo Anticiclónico que se formará entre Canada y Europa occidental, será lo suficientemente fuerte para desviar las borrascas hacia la Peninsula,Madeira y POSIBLEMENTE Canarias, apoyado de nuevo, por un Azoriano que aunque intentará meter el hocico por el Norte de la peninsula, no lo conseguirá de momento y seguirá estacionario en esa zonas,por lo que las bajas presiones seguirán el camino donde tengan vía libre,en este caso es el Noreste-Este.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 180837
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE HAS
DIMINISHED...AND THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN A BAND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS COULD SUGGEST THAT
NADINE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM SAB
AND T3.5 FROM TAFB.
JUST ABOUT EVERY ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED. THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 2
DAYS...WITH ALL OF THE MODELS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD MOTION AS NADINE MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
NADINE INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO ITS NORTH AND
EITHER MOVING EASTWARD AS ITS OWN ENTITY...OR IN THE CASE OF THE
00Z GFS...MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE CUT-OFF LOW.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CUT-OFF LOW BYPASSING
NADINE AND BEING REPLACED BY AN ANTICYCLONE...WHICH PUSHES NADINE
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. DUE TO THE IMMENSE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE MOTION AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...THE STEERING PATTERN IS TOO
COMPLEX TO KNOW EXACTLY WHICH SCENARIO WILL VERIFY.
ALTHOUGH NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BAROCLINIC PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO OFFSET ANY
WEAKENING THAT THE COLDER WATERS WOULD INDUCE. THE GUIDANCE AS A
WHOLE AGREES THAT NADINE SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
ONLY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NADINE BECOMING FULLY INVOLVED
WITH A FRONT...MAKING IT EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...SHOW NADINE STAYING AWAY FROM THE
STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A
NON-FRONTAL CYCLONE. EVEN IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...NADINE
IS STILL LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER COLD WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NADINE
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 3 DAYS...WITHOUT SPECIFYING WHETHER OR
NOT THE CYCLONE WILL BE FRONTAL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 34.3N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 35.1N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 36.2N 32.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 36.9N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 36.8N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 35.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z 35.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT44 KNHC 181440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012
THE STORM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME...NOT MUCH...DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50 KT
BASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR OVER NADINE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THESE HIGHER-LATITUDE SYSTEMS ARE KNOWN TO BE MORE
RESILIENT TO SHEAR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM
GUIDANCE WHICH MORE OR LESS MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS INDICATED BELOW...NADINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER THE PERIOD. THEREFORE IT IS NOT LIKELY
TO ENCOUNTER ENOUGH BAROCLINICITY TO UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS IT COULD...AT SOME POINT...LOSE ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION SO THAT IT NO LONGER WOULD QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH SHOWS
POST-TROPICAL STATUS BY DAY 3. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF SUCH A TRANSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED AS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS 3-5 DAY PREDICTIONS NOW SHOW NADINE...OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY THE FLOW
BETWEEN AN INTENSE 500 MB TROUGH TO THE WEST OF EUROPE AND A VERY
STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF 40N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR...BUT TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHIFTS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD
AT DAYS 3-5 BUT DOES NOT YET COMMIT TO THE WESTWARD TURN. THIS IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 34.4N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 35.4N 32.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 36.4N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 36.7N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 36.5N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 35.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1200Z 34.0N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1200Z 33.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Actualización de las 12z del GFS y... NADINE entrando por el SO!!! Nose si extratropicalizada o no ??? Que digan los expertos ;DEnmarcado...Tormentones,firmamos un VINCE II, verdad???,el mapa es para enmarcar,ademas a saber el oleaje que podria traer asociado..
(http://imageshack.us/a/img846/4017/gfsp.png)
(http://imageshack.us/a/img850/802/viento.png)
::) ::)
Tela si se cumpliera...es para dentro de una semana
Unanimidad en los modelos segun Wunderground: bloqueo anticiclonico y movimiento de NADINE hacia el oeste ;)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 190238
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING
AND THE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONE RAGGED BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED AND A BLEND OF THE FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS YIELDS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. NADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND
25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IT SHOULD MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PREDICTED SLOW MOTION OF NADINE
COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME UPWELLING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO REDUCE THE
SSTS A LITTLE MORE. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE COOL WATER AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO CAUSE NADINE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ACTUALLY PREDICT SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NADINE COULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IF IT LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF WHEN THIS COULD OCCUR.
NADINE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE AS DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW THE STORM WILL INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. NADINE IS FORECAST SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
THEN EASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LATTER SCENARIO...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER EASTWARD SOLUTION. THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAST AS MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THIS MAINTAINS SOME CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SHOWS SOME RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 35.8N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 36.5N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 36.9N 31.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 36.4N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 35.3N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 34.4N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 34.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 34.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Yo todavía no preocuparía a la gente de Canarias con noticias como la de ese medio que indicas, Iván ::) Y más cuando son muy sensibles a ellas.
Alerta en las playas de la provincia por la fuerte resaca de la marea
En la playa de la Victoria de Cádiz los servicios de salvamento realizaron 27 intervenciones desde las 17 horas, cifras similares a las registradas en El Palmar o la Barrosa[/b]
(Diario de Cádiz)
La fuerte resaca de la marea a lo largo de la tarde provocó numerosas intervenciones en diferentes playas de la provincia. Algunas, como la de La Barrosa en Chiclana o la de Conil, fueron cerradas al baño y en otras como en otras localidades como Cádiz o Rota las intervenciones de los efectivos de salvamento se multiplicaron para rescatar a las personas que no eran capaces de alcanzar la orilla tras ser arrastradas por el oleaje.
En la playa de la Victoria de Cádiz, los Servicios Municipales de Socorrismo y Salvamento ampliaron su turno hasta las 21 horas ante la fuerte resaca de marea que se ha percibido a partir de las 17 horas, según ha informado el teniente de alcaldesa de Seguridad Ciudadana, Juan Antonio Guerrero, quien ha mantenido en la misma zona una reunión de urgencia con los técnicos responsables.
Guerrero ha informado que durante la tarde ha ondeado la bandera amarilla en la playa de la Victoria y se ha informado por megafonía sobre la conveniencia de no alejarse de la orilla a los bañistas. A las 19 horas, una vez tomada la decisión de prolongar durante una hora los servicios de Socorrismo y Salvamento, se empezó a informar sobre esta decisión a los usuarios de la playa. A las 21 horas finaliza el Servicio de Salvamento y Socorrismo y se recomienda a los usuarios que no se bañen ante el peligro que supone la resaca de la marea que se está observando, sobre todo, en la zona que va de los Delfines a Cortadura.
Desde las 17 horas y hasta el momento se han realizado 27 servicios de salvamento a bañistas que se han visto arrastrados por la resaca hacia el interior del agua. Ninguno de los bañistas rescatados han necesitado atención médica, sin que pasara la situación del lógico estado de nerviosismo.
La escena se ha repetido en otras playas del litoral gaditano. Así, en Conil y la Barrosa ondeó la bandera roja después de realizar más de una treintena de intervenciones. Se registraron cifras similares en El Palmar o Rota, así hasta alcanzar más de un centenar de intervenciones en toda la provincia.
http://www.diariodecadiz.es/article/provincia/1335058/alerta/las/playas/la/provincia/por/la/fuerte/resaca/la/marea.html (http://www.diariodecadiz.es/article/provincia/1335058/alerta/las/playas/la/provincia/por/la/fuerte/resaca/la/marea.html)
Pego aquí una noticia del 22 de Agosto que colgué en el hilo de Gordon. Consultando los modelos de predicción de oleaje, se espera la llegada de mar de fondo con periodos muy largos, es decir, resaca muy pronunciada. Puede que esta tarde se repita en Huelva y Cádiz lo que sucedió esos días de Agosto como consecuencia de Gordon. Además, la marea es todavía bastante grande, pues el máximo fue este lunes.Lo vivi en primera persona en las playas de Cadiz, al final fueron mas de 100 rescates ese dia, y a partir de entonces dias de bandera roja...resacas,corrientes y mar de fondo,ademas pleamares grandes que se comian la playa...ahora toca nadine y veremos esa mar de fondo...en algunas zonas..CitarAlerta en las playas de la provincia por la fuerte resaca de la marea
En la playa de la Victoria de Cádiz los servicios de salvamento realizaron 27 intervenciones desde las 17 horas, cifras similares a las registradas en El Palmar o la Barrosa[/b]
(Diario de Cádiz)
La fuerte resaca de la marea a lo largo de la tarde provocó numerosas intervenciones en diferentes playas de la provincia. Algunas, como la de La Barrosa en Chiclana o la de Conil, fueron cerradas al baño y en otras como en otras localidades como Cádiz o Rota las intervenciones de los efectivos de salvamento se multiplicaron para rescatar a las personas que no eran capaces de alcanzar la orilla tras ser arrastradas por el oleaje.
En la playa de la Victoria de Cádiz, los Servicios Municipales de Socorrismo y Salvamento ampliaron su turno hasta las 21 horas ante la fuerte resaca de marea que se ha percibido a partir de las 17 horas, según ha informado el teniente de alcaldesa de Seguridad Ciudadana, Juan Antonio Guerrero, quien ha mantenido en la misma zona una reunión de urgencia con los técnicos responsables.
Guerrero ha informado que durante la tarde ha ondeado la bandera amarilla en la playa de la Victoria y se ha informado por megafonía sobre la conveniencia de no alejarse de la orilla a los bañistas. A las 19 horas, una vez tomada la decisión de prolongar durante una hora los servicios de Socorrismo y Salvamento, se empezó a informar sobre esta decisión a los usuarios de la playa. A las 21 horas finaliza el Servicio de Salvamento y Socorrismo y se recomienda a los usuarios que no se bañen ante el peligro que supone la resaca de la marea que se está observando, sobre todo, en la zona que va de los Delfines a Cortadura.
Desde las 17 horas y hasta el momento se han realizado 27 servicios de salvamento a bañistas que se han visto arrastrados por la resaca hacia el interior del agua. Ninguno de los bañistas rescatados han necesitado atención médica, sin que pasara la situación del lógico estado de nerviosismo.
La escena se ha repetido en otras playas del litoral gaditano. Así, en Conil y la Barrosa ondeó la bandera roja después de realizar más de una treintena de intervenciones. Se registraron cifras similares en El Palmar o Rota, así hasta alcanzar más de un centenar de intervenciones en toda la provincia.
http://www.diariodecadiz.es/article/provincia/1335058/alerta/las/playas/la/provincia/por/la/fuerte/resaca/la/marea.html (http://www.diariodecadiz.es/article/provincia/1335058/alerta/las/playas/la/provincia/por/la/fuerte/resaca/la/marea.html)
Hay que prestar atención al pico de viento que se preve durante la madrugada del Sábado al Domingo y el Lunes.Fijaos en las isobaras (líneas muy blancas) están muy juntas por lo que viento puede ser muy intenso.Cuanto más juntas estén las isobaras más viento hace.
El GFS sigue mostrando el acercamiento de Nadine, posicionándose al W-SW de la Ibérica :D :D para, posteriormente, desplazarse hasta el cantábrico:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/74210554/1.png
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/74210554/2.png
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/74210554/3.png
:O* :O*
Atención a una cosa, ya que veo esa mención al oleaje supuestamente generado por GORDON: la forma en que NADINE puede agitar la superficie marina, y cómo se va a expandir el oleaje a partir del foco perturbador (NADINE), es una gran incógnita, por mucho que haya modelos que modelicen el oleaje. Así que recomiendo mucha atención, si la transición extratropical se realiza cerca de Madeira y/o Canarias...
Voy a mirar un par de modelos.
PD.: Pablo, no cites mensajes con imágenes, que si no esto es un lío... G:
El fuerte viento,el oleaje y la lluvia ya se sienten en Flores y Corvo.
Los fuertes vientos y las lluvias ya se están sintiendo en las islas de Flores y Corvo en las Azores, a raíz de la llegada de la tormenta tropical Nadine, pero la gente dice que están acostumbrados y se han tomado las precauciones necesarias.
Noticia (http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=2778952&page=-1)
http://i46.tinypic.com/2a656wj.jpg (http://i46.tinypic.com/2a656wj.jpg)
De nuevo, coged el babero :P ............... Obra maestra del MetOp-A 8)
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1566/nadinebig_rma4.jpg (http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1566/nadinebig_rma4.jpg)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 191452
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECLINING AND IS BECOMING FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. AMSU DATA SHOWED A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WARM CORE STRUCTURE...BUT THE LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION IS
INDICATIVE OF A DECAYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT BUT SINCE THIS IS SUCH A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THESE ESTIMATES MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD WINDS TO 45 KT. HOWEVER...IF THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...NADINE WILL SOON NO LONGER
QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 24 HOURS BUT
THIS TRANSITION COULD OCCUR EVEN EARLIER THAN THAT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE 45-KT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
SINCE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY FIND SOME SOURCES OF
BAROCLINIC ENERGY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MOTION IS BECOMING ERRATIC AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS 020/04.
MOST OF THE BETTER-PERFORMING DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES CAUGHT IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT WITH THE U.K.
MET. OFFICE MODEL TAKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD...THE
ECMWF SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED...AND THE GFS MOVING
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TOWARD PORTUGAL. AS A COMPROMISE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 TO 5. THIS
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 37.2N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 37.4N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 36.6N 30.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/0000Z 35.5N 28.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/1200Z 34.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 34.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/1200Z 34.5N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
Desde la Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) en Canarias se mantienen a la expectativa y señalan que “habrá que esperar a las próximas 48 horas para valorar su evolución aunque del estudio de los modelos numéricos se desprende que se debilitará y sólo podrían llegar algunos vientos de componente sur-sudeste que podrían afectar a las zonas de mayor altitud de las islas”.
Mientas por las islas Canarias estamos a la espera impacientes de las nueva salidas de los modelos....por Las Azores mientras tanto la lluvia, el viento,el oleaje y las tormentas predominan esta tarde por allí.
Foto: Juan Machado
El mal tiempo en el puerto de Raven esta tarde
http://i48.tinypic.com/2vc6b9w.jpg (http://i48.tinypic.com/2vc6b9w.jpg)
Y ahora mirad la salida de las 12 UTC del europeo :DDD es la caña, porque aunque desvía a NADINE de su camino hacia Madeira, Canarias o la Península, tras perder características tropicales (no sé si del todo o no), las vuelve a recuperar, y de qué forma ;D :DDD
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9266/nadinegif2_spy2.gif (http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9266/nadinegif2_spy2.gif)
Si esto se cumple, me apuesto lo que sea a que nunca antes desde que se observan los ciclones tropicales atlánticos, ha habido un caso como este (:O*) :O* :O* :O* :O* :O* :O* :O* :O* :O* :O*
cabe la posibilidad de algun fortalecimiento?
ÚLTIMA IMAGEN
(http://i47.tinypic.com/wlcgew.jpg)
(http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj539/Estebancabrreramendez/s88g1800_zpsadca32cb.gif)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 200251
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012
NADINE CONTINUES TO BE A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS AN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 45
KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THE VALUE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH NADINE STAYING OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER NADINE WILL LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS QUICKLY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE TRANSFORMATION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SOMETHING THAT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR.
AFTER MEANDERING DURING MOST OF TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT NADINE IS STARTING TO TURN EASTWARD. HOWEVER...USING A LONGER
12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOVEMENT OF EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 3 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
TAKING NADINE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN
STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEPING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. ONE SOLUTION...IS FOR NADINE TO BE
PULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE SECOND SCENARIO IS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE CENTRAL-ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REMAIN BETWEEN THESE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS...BUT THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
IS THE RESULT OF A FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION PREDICTED BY THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FOR NOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 37.1N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 36.6N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 35.5N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1200Z 34.2N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 32.8N 26.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0000Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0000Z 31.5N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0000Z 31.0N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Buenos días !!! ¿Han visto las últimas predicciones de NOAA?
http://i1060.photobucket.com/albums/t447/alfonsoelokupa/Aemet_zps2adc75e6.gif (http://i1060.photobucket.com/albums/t447/alfonsoelokupa/Aemet_zps2adc75e6.gif)
http://i1060.photobucket.com/albums/t447/alfonsoelokupa/Aemet_zps2adc75e6.gif (http://i1060.photobucket.com/albums/t447/alfonsoelokupa/Aemet_zps2adc75e6.gif)Gracias por el mapa...dentro de 6horas,cambiaran los mapas,es la tónica,pero aun asi me gustan esos 26 grados de temperatura del mar en el sur del golfo de cadiz..mas de los que lleva ahora,al oeste de canarias si que hay una lengua calida...veremos al final,dificil modelizar esto.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 200838
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012
IT IS HARD TO SAY MUCH MORE ABOUT NADINE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CONTINUES AT 45 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH...PRELIMINARY DROPSONDE DATA FROM
THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE IS NOT BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AT THIS
TIME...AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS MORE TROPICAL NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
HAVING SAID THAT...NADINE IS STILL FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIVING THAT IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.
AS ANTICIPATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORCING NADINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL STEER
NADINE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THEN...THE
TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE...AND NADINE WILL LIKELY
BECOME TRAPPED SOUTH OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE LONG
RANGE...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR
TUNES...AND WHEN THE GFS SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN...THE ECMWF SHOWS AN
EASTWARD MOTION...AND VICEVERSA. SINCE THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO KEEP NADINE NEARLY STATIONARY
BEYOND 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 36.8N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 36.2N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 35.0N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0600Z 32.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0600Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 32.0N 25.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm NADINE
...NADINE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER...
5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 20
Location: 36.8°N 30.6°W
Moving: ESE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Sobre la tormenta tropical que está cerca de Canarias, esto nos cuenta nuestra experta Victoria Palma.
Nadine está a unos 200 kilómetros de la isla de Flores en Azores. Es tormenta tropical y podría convertirse en borrasca extra-tropical el sábado. Su centro se desplaza hacia el este-sureste a 6km/h y NO llegará hasta Canarias. Aún así, generará algunos cambios en el tiempo en los primeros días del otoño.
Curioso, curioso, curioso... mapas de CFS e IFS a 168 horas y 144 horas... ::)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4563/cfs-0-168_pxc9.png)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/577/ECM1-144_qmu8.GIF)
Curioso el IFS del ECMWF y lo que ha sacado respecto a Nadine... el efecto embudo del Estrecho de Gibraltar daria lugar a vientos sostenidos en capas medias de hasta 170 km/h en la zona de Alboran... ::)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6019/etryretyretytru_yyt4.gif)
975 mb en el Golfo de Cadiz y 985 en Murcia....
(http://foro.tiempo.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=138622.0;attach=189771;image)
Actualiza el GFS en su salida de las 6z (No suele ser de las mejores ni de las más fiables) y nos coloca a NADINE entre Madeira y Canarias. Todo ello, para el próximo Miércoles, por lo que aún queda una semana de por medio. Nunca nos habían puesto el sistema tan cerca de las islas, y ojo que vendría fortalecido.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/227960_279722395461491_239507080_n.jpg
¿Les recuerda a algo? :-X :-X
Los mapas que ha puesto Jota,son para guardarlos,mas alla que luego se cumplan,chocarian directamente contra mi,por otra parte apuntar que ya ayer se registraron grandes olas por el litoral gaditano,algunos lo achacan a nadine...ya que fueron mas de lo normal y volvieron a tapar gran cantidad de playa como con gordon,yo estaba pensando que Nadine tiraria hacia canarias,pero ayer alguien puso un mapa de la temperatura del agua y hay un maximo de temperatura al SW de cabo san Vicente ,estando el agua del golfo de Cadiz aun bastante calida...realmente dificil de adivinar la trayectoria.Pues sí, como dije anoche ha llegado buena mar de fondo. Hoy en el Palmar por ejemplo se ven buenas olas, como si un buen temporal estuviera a punto de llegar :D1
Qué fenómeno tan extraño este Nadine. Muchos dicen que para Cádiz, otros para el canal Madeira / CAnarias y algunos incluso para Terranova.
En verdad la metereología no es una ciencia exacta.
Aunque esta página da como probable que pase por Madeira y luego por el estrecho:
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/ecmwf.html (http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/ecmwf.html)
Su desplazamiento actual es Este-Sureste a 6km/h.
Incertidumbre en la predicción meteorológica de los próximos días
Información elaborada el 20 de septiembre de 2012
Las condiciones meteorológicas de los próximos días estarán determinadas por la llegada de una borrasca de origen polar, que en su acercamiento al área peninsular, es probable que interaccione con la tormenta tropical Nadine, situada al sur de Azores. La presencia de Nadine está dificultando la predicción de la evolución de la borrasca por parte de los modelos numéricos, de forma que estos están, durante los últimos días, modificando la trayectoria prevista y proporcionando varios escenarios alternativos. Hay, por lo tanto, una alta incertidumbre a partir del sábado, día 22, que explica los cambios que AEMET está introduciendo en sus actualizaciones de la predicción.
Con la información más reciente, es probable que el frente atlántico asociado a la borrasca afecte entre el sábado y el lunes, solamente al noroeste peninsular y que a partir del martes, y durante el resto de la semana, se generalicen las precipitaciones al entorno peninsular aunque con menor incidencia en el área mediterránea. Esta incertidumbre afecta también a Canarias, donde a partir del domingo es posible que se produzcan precipitaciones.
http://www.aemet.es/documentos_d/enportada/p53tesp1.pdf (http://www.aemet.es/documentos_d/enportada/p53tesp1.pdf)
Para guardar 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 201456
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012
NADINE CONTINUES TO HAVE A TROPICAL-TYPE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
BECOMING APPARENT ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KT WHICH IS ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB...BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT AND AMSU ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION. CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE GFS
SHOWS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DRAWING SOME ENERGY FROM
BAROCLINIC SOURCES AS WELL AS FROM LATENT HEAT...AND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
EITHER AS A TROPICAL OR A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.
NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 120/9...IN THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND LEAVE NADINE IN A REGION OF WEAKER
STEERING WINDS. THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCLEAR...AS THE NORMALLY-RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME NOW...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE LATEST GFS RUN LIES WELL WEST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
ECMWF MODEL POSITIONS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS. IN THESE SITUATIONS IT IS
USUALLY BEST TO MOVE THE SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 36.2N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 35.4N 27.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.1N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/1200Z 32.3N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Por cierto, la salida de las 12 UTC sigue apostando por la llegada de NADINE a la Península, y van 3 salidas consecutivas en una línea similar... :O*
Creo que nadie lo ha posteado (si es así, lo siento por no haberlo visto):
http://www.tiempo.com/ram/26460/nadine-el-culpable-de-la-incertidumbre-de-la-prediccion/ (http://www.tiempo.com/ram/26460/nadine-el-culpable-de-la-incertidumbre-de-la-prediccion/)
Artículo de obligatoria lectura.
Impresionante salida del Europeo!!!!!! Nadine cruzando Extremadura... Dioss!!!!
http://oi50.tinypic.com/igd7ok.jpg (http://oi50.tinypic.com/igd7ok.jpg)
Sin palabras....
Impresionante salida del Europeo!!!!!! Nadine cruzando Extremadura... Dioss!!!!
http://oi50.tinypic.com/igd7ok.jpg (http://oi50.tinypic.com/igd7ok.jpg)
Sin palabras....
Buenas noches yo Javier no se pero pienso que Nadine ira mas al sur y cruzara via Golfo de Cadiz-Estrecho camino al Mediterraneo en vede por el centro de la Peninsula pero ya veremos que pasa. :-X :-X
http://www.stormpulse.com/2012-hurricane-season (http://www.stormpulse.com/2012-hurricane-season)
Saludos ;)
Pedro a España llegaria como TT o Huracan categoria 1 ? ;D ;D
P.D. Yo pienso que no va cruzar por el centro de la Peninsula como ahora dicen los modelos, mas bien veo que pasara del Golfo de Cadiz via Estrecho al Mediterraneo o hacia el NE por Andalucia Oriental.
Saludos
Cuelgo la correspondiente imagen de NADINE de hoy capturada en dos partes por el satélite MetOp-A 8)
(Imagen)
Tropical Storm NADINE
...NADINE STILL PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...
2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 20
Location: 36.2°N 28.6°W
Moving: ESE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
000
WTNT44 KNHC 210246
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INCREASING NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF NADINE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY
RELATED TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES SINCE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE AZORES AND AN 2224 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE A FRONTAL ZONE
IMPINGING ON THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL 50 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND
BARBS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE PRESUMABLY
RELATED TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE STORM.
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK OF NADINE MAY BE
VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 120/08. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW DOWN
THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AS IN THE LAST FEW RUNS...THE GFS
SHOWS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE STORM WHICH RESULTS IN NADINE MOVING MORE RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF/UK MET HAVE A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE AND EITHER
KEEP NADINE MEANDERING OR MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THAN THE GFS. SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STARK DICHOTOMY IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ONLY A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST
IS DEPICTED DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE ATTEMPTING TO OUTRUN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ENCROACHING ON IT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT THIS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.
THE TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW COULD NOW BE MORE
IMMINENT...AND POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOONER
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEN AGAIN...NADINE COULD TEMPORARILY
FIND ITSELF SECLUDED FROM THE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...AND IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF NADINE...THE LATTER POSSIBILITY IS TREATED AS A LOWER
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 35.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.5N 27.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 33.2N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1200Z 32.5N 25.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 23/0000Z 32.4N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/0000Z 32.4N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0000Z 32.4N 23.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0000Z 32.4N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
Sobre Malaga segun la ultima salida del GFS...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4249/gfs_pi_g500_144_dmj9.png)
Sobre Malaga segun la ultima salida del GFS...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4249/gfs_pi_g500_144_dmj9.png)
Ultima actualización de los modelos en la trayectoria a seguir por Nadine:
(https://dl.dropbox.com/u/74210554/consenso.gif)
:O* :O* :O* :O* :O*
► Siguen habiendo dudas de lo que ocurrirá finalmente con NADINE.(https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/404575_279986902101707_23548282_n.jpg)
En el último aviso emitido por el NHC, NADINE presenta movimiento Este-Sureste a una velocidad de 14.8km/h mientras se espera que poco a poco vaya perdiendo características tropicales. Lo que pase tras este movimiento E-SE es aún una incógnita.
El NHC da probabilidades de que los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical afecten a las islas occidentales de Canarias, aunque las probabilidades son relativamente bajas. En la última salida del GFS, posicionan el centro de NADINE sobre Madeira, por lo que el viento y el fuerte oleaje también se dejaría sentir en Canarias.
► Animación GFS:
http://youtu.be/2twbErX38kk (http://youtu.be/2twbErX38kk)
De igual forma, todo sigue siendo una incógnita, y con un movimiento más al Sur de NADINE estaríamos hablando de otros efectos sobre las islas.. deberemos de seguir atentos a lo que ocurra con este caprichoso sistema.
Y ahora la del Meteosat-9, en modo visible y falso color RGB de las 18 UTC :o :o :o :o :o :o Casi me gusta más incluso!
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4935/meganadine2_dbc6.jpg)CitarTropical Storm NADINE
...NADINE STILL PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...
2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 20
Location: 36.2°N 28.6°W
Moving: ESE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Ahora mismo he estado viendo el tiempo de la 1 y no se han atrevido todavia con Nadine. Dice que lo mas probable que ocurra porque hay unanimidad en los modelos es que se diriga al SO y se adentre en el Atlantico. Y que solo hay una pequeña probabilidad de que se diriga hacia la peninsula.
Cuando yo pienso que ahora mismo, bastantes modelos como GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, CEMMP etc lo mandan hacia la peninsula y que la probabilidad de que se diriga hacia nuestras tierras no es tan pequeña como dicen ;)
por un lado estoy de acuerdo contigo,pero por otro aun hay margen como para ser precabidos.
Ahora mismo he estado viendo el tiempo de la 1 y no se han atrevido todavia con Nadine. Dice que lo mas probable que ocurra porque hay unanimidad en los modelos es que se diriga al SO y se adentre en el Atlantico. Y que solo hay una pequeña probabilidad de que se diriga hacia la peninsula.Me he quedado a cuadros cuando he visto el tiempo yo también. En la 1 decían que Nadine se perdería por al Atlántico hacia el SO y ha señalado la chica hacia abajo como si se perdiera por siempre. En Antena 3 han dicho que se aproximaría a Galicia y ha puesto la mancha de preci como si apenas llegara nada (no han puesto el mapa de isobaras que sería bestial y alarmante) no han comentado nada más. Parece que han incidido en que dejará lluvias como si de una borrasca normal se tratara y así la población no se alarme.
Cuando yo pienso que ahora mismo, bastantes modelos como GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, CEMMP etc lo mandan hacia la peninsula y que la probabilidad de que se diriga hacia nuestras tierras no es tan pequeña como dicen ;)
...NADINE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...
2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 21
Location: 33.6°N 27.3°W
Moving: SSE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Toma ya!! Otra buena salida del Europeo!! :D1 :D1 :D1
Pero ante todo tranquilidad...
http://oi50.tinypic.com/8z33wo.jpg (http://oi50.tinypic.com/8z33wo.jpg)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 212036
TCDAT4
SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012
NADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO. WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OF
MODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER
OF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY. THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN-
AVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINE
POST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO
FIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT
FROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS
TIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 50 KT.
NADINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS IT IS STEERED BY
A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE DAYS TIME AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT TROUGH IN ABOUT 5
DAYS WILL FINALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK EARLY ON...SMALL CHANGES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST...AND
AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAY 5.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING AND IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
VERY COLD UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...
ALTHOUGH THE WATERS SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR NADINE...WHICH COULD
FACILITATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS. IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
DECAYED INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 33.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 31.6N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 30.6N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 30.8N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 31.7N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 32.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Con esas temperaturas de las aguas,es mas factible que Nadine se situe en esa zona tal y como algun modelo predice o la otra posibilidad y para mi nada descabellada es rumbo hacia el estrecho,lo que no logro a entender es ese rumbo hacia el Noroeste.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220237
TCDAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012
WHILE NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WARM CORE AND A VIGOROUS
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST 15 HOURS OR SO. WHAT
CONVECTION THAT CURRENTLY REMAINS IS IN POORLY-DEFINED BANDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
REALLY FIT THE DEFINITION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO IT IS
DECLARED TO BE POST-TROPICAL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KT DUE TO A LACK OF DATA NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 165/11. NADINE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST. A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE TWO FUTURE TRACK SCENARIOS FOR
NADINE OR ITS REMNANTS. THE FIRST IS THAT ENOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO STEER IT GENERALLY EASTWARD. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE SECOND IS THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND STEERS IT IN A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS... MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL COME TO PASS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD SCENARIO FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A SLOW FORWARD MOTION DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.
THIS MAY NOT BE THE LAST HURRAH FOR NADINE. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
TOWARD WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ACQUIRE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW
A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD UNDER THE
RIDGE. EVEN IF THIS TRANSITION DOES NOT OCCUR...THE MAJORITY OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN NADINE AS A VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS CHANGED
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS WILL BY THE LAST ADVISORY ON NADINE BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 31.9N 26.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/1200Z 31.0N 26.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/0000Z 30.5N 25.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1200Z 30.7N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/0000Z 31.4N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 26/0000Z 32.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 27/0000Z 33.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Eso sí, el europeo se mantiene interesante evil :O*Tambien JMA y GEM nos meten a Nadine por el estrecho. Mucha incertidumbre todavia.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1224/Europe_msl_216_wes4.gif)
EL CICLON POS-TROPICAL NADINE ESTA LOCALIZADO SOBRE EL NORESTE DEL
OCEANO ATLANTICO A CERCA DE 650 MILLAS AL OESTE NOROESTE DE LAS
ISLAS CANARIAS Y SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUR-SURESTE A 10 MPH. ES
POSIBLE QUE ESTE SISTEMA VUELVA A FORTALECERSE CONVIRTIENDOSE
NUEVAMENTE EN EL CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE
SOBRE AGUAS MAS CALIDAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. STE SISTEMA TIENE
UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIA...40 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON
TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS. INFORMACION
ADICIONAL SOBRE EL CICLON POS-TROPICAL NADINE PUEDE ENCONTRARSE EN
EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR EMITIDO POR METEO FRANCE.
No me había fijado en ese frente que está tocando Galicia. Es más potente que lo que queda de Nadine? Por cierto, creen que afectará a Canarias visto lo visto hace nada en los.mapas?
Gracias
Enviado desde mi GT-N7000 usando Tapatalk 2
GFS ya está sacando los paneles de las 12 UTC, e insiste en mandar a NADINE a aguas centrales del Atlántico, lejos de territorio español........................ Ya van varias salidas (creo que 3), por lo que podríamos empezar a considerar que el ciclón no va a venir para acá... Veremos "qué opina" el europeo cuando actualice sus mapas ::)Yo creo personalmente que es lo que va a pasar.....estancamiento al oeste de Canarias,coje fuerza y hasta la vista rumbo centro del atlàntico...y me da que la pròxima del europeo se tendra que "rendir" finalmente y se llevara el gato al agua el que siempre aposto por ello que no es otro que el NOGAPS
No me había fijado en ese frente que está tocando Galicia. Es más potente que lo que queda de Nadine? Por cierto, creen que afectará a Canarias visto lo visto hace nada en los.mapas?
Gracias
Enviado desde mi GT-N7000 usando Tapatalk 2
A ver qué sale en la actualización de las 12 UTC del GFS y el ECMWF :P
Ángel Rivera comenta algo interesante: vigilancia sobre la profundidad de la vaguada que se formará desde comienzos de la semana que viene... Si ahonda lo suficiente y, mientras, NADINE no se aleja demasiado, puede tener capacidad para atraerla. Pero claro, ahora mismo, ningún modelo apuesta por esto. Sólo CMC, tímidamente, y sin conseguirse.
Pero ojo, los modelos GFDL y HWRF todavía no han sacado la salida de las 12 UTC sobre NADINE. A ver qué dicen aunque, en caso de ir contra GFS y ECMWF, serían los únicos... ::)
P.D. En Jaen estamos muy contentos porque Nadine no venga a la Peninsula suponia una gran surada ( viento del sur ) aparte de isos por las nubes +24 o 25 incluso y por supuesto nada de lluvia.Nadine hubiera supuesto muchísima lluvia, no sé de dónde sacas que nada de lluvia.
Ademas hubiera sido la puntilla final para una provincia que lleva 123 dias sin ver caer nada de lluvia.
P.D. En Jaen estamos muy contentos porque Nadine no venga a la Peninsula suponia una gran surada ( viento del sur ) aparte de isos por las nubes +24 o 25 incluso y por supuesto nada de lluvia.Nadine hubiera supuesto muchísima lluvia, no sé de dónde sacas que nada de lluvia.
Ademas hubiera sido la puntilla final para una provincia que lleva 123 dias sin ver caer nada de lluvia.
De todas maneras la lluvia está asegurada para el SO de la Península sobre todo, el miércoles y jueves. Las lluvias parece que serán intensas, el Golfo está muy caliente :D1
AL, 14, 2012092218, , BEST, 0, 304N, 259W, 45, 987, LO, 34, NEQ, 220, 100, 150, 240, 1008, 200, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 14, 2012092212, , BEST, 0, 308N, 265W, 45, 987, LO, 34, NEQ, 220, 100, 150, 240, 1008, 200, 70, 0, 0,
Nadine hubiera supuesto muchísima lluvia, no sé de dónde sacas que nada de lluvia.
De todas maneras la lluvia está asegurada para el SO de la Península sobre todo, el miércoles y jueves. Las lluvias parece que serán intensas, el Golfo está muy caliente :D1
Me refiero a la provincia de Jaen con el tema de Nadine que no lloveria porque te lo repito bien claro, con surada (viento del Sur o Sureste ) no llueve nada porque hace efecto Foeh a lo bestia, ademas de baja humedad y temperaturas muy altas.
Saludos
Nadine hubiera supuesto muchísima lluvia, no sé de dónde sacas que nada de lluvia.
De todas maneras la lluvia está asegurada para el SO de la Península sobre todo, el miércoles y jueves. Las lluvias parece que serán intensas, el Golfo está muy caliente :D1
Me refiero a la provincia de Jaen con el tema de Nadine que no lloveria porque te lo repito bien claro, con surada (viento del Sur o Sureste ) no llueve nada porque hace efecto Foeh a lo bestia, ademas de baja humedad y temperaturas muy altas.
Saludos
Si entiendo lo que dices, pero estamos hablando de una situación extrema que iba a dejar lluvias sí o sí, seguramente con ese efecto Foehn no muy intensas en tu zona, pero es imposible que no dejara una sola gota, no puede desgastarse así como así por un simple efecto Foehn, no es un simple frentecillo.
¿Crees que vendrá, Pedro?
LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS CONTINUA AUMENTANDO CERCA DEL CENTRO DEL
CICLON POS-TROPICAL NADINE...LOCALIZADO COMO A 500 MILLAS AL OESTE
NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
GRADUALMENTE SEAN MAS FAVORABLES PARA LA REGENERACION DE ESTE
SISTEMA EN UN CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA
SOBRE AGUAS MAS CALIDAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA
TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD ALTA...60 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN
CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL NUEVAMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE DE 5 A 10 MPH. INFORMACION
ADICIONAL SOBRE EL CICLON POS-TROPICAL NADINE PUEDE ENCONTRARSE EN
EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR EMITIDO POR METEO FRANCE.
AL, 14, 2012092306, , BEST, 0, 306N, 259W, 50, 987, LO, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE,
Temporal Nadine. 25 provincias españolas, sobre todo del Noroeste, están hoy en alerta por lluvias y fuertes rachas de viento, según Aemet. El aviso es naranja en Galicia, Asturias y Cantabria por el viento, que puede llegar a los 100 km/h. Las temperaturas bajarán en el oeste.
http://eskup.elpais.com/1348385985-9bda236f75d62d17b63a4fcee5c90cbc (http://eskup.elpais.com/1348385985-9bda236f75d62d17b63a4fcee5c90cbc)
A low pressure system associated with Nadine is bringing 60 mph gusts and 2" of rain to S. England, this morning.
They were calling it the 'remnant of hurricane Nadine' yesterday. Not sure how it relates to Nadine, actually.
Vaya con lo medios de comunicación!!!! Vergonzoso!
Si llegara a tropicalizarse...que casi seguro ya lo es,creo que le cambiarán el NOMBRE y se llamaría Oscar.Si llegara alejarse de las islas seguiré su situación por aquí.
Iván, yo creo que va a conservar el nombre. He estado informándome esta mañana, después de leer a Mario Picazo opinando igual que tú. Pregunté directamente al Sr. Avila del CNH si conservaría el nombre, y el me contestó que creía que sí.
De todos modos, lo veremos pronto 8)
Fantastico hilo!!!!
aunque apenas estoy participando si que lo estoy leyendo y disfrutando ;), enhorabuena.
La tormenta tropical Nadine, que se temía que podía empeorar la situación a partir del miércoles, ha perdido mucha fuerza, y aunque la puede volver a recuperar durante las próximas horas, lo más probable es que acabe deshaciéndose en el Atlántico sin llegar a tocar la Península, según el foro de meteorólogos y climatólogos cazatormentas.net, que sigue su trayectoria desde hace días.
Tenemos un granito de arena y el modelo GEM parece que insiste en poner a Nadine justamente nuestro Oeste a 120h,osea el próximo Viernes..Este modelo nos muestra un fuerte bloqueo anticiclónico al Norte.....Hay mi cabeza.. O0
(http://i46.tinypic.com/70dwjp.gif)
Fantastico hilo!!!!Navy le da ahora 986 mb y sigue con los 50 kts (creo que ambos datos estan obsoletos) y lo mas interesante es que se mostraria con menor presion de lo pronosticado por hirlam para esta hora, y que por ahora sigue el pronostico de trayectoria de Navy antes que de Gfs o del propio Hirlam.
aunque apenas estoy participando si que lo estoy leyendo y disfrutando ;), enhorabuena.
La marina no esta de acuerdo con el consenso modelistico, !ojo! que yo no tengo para nada tan claro que se aleje de nosotros por un lado amen de creo que ya esta mas fuerte de los 987 mb y 50 KT que le otorga el Navy. Mas bien diria que es casi casi casi huracan a estas horas.
Me parece sorprendente el cambio tan brutal que ha hecho el nadine, ha pasado de ser una tormenta tropical a ser un huracan de categoria 1 con destino a america, no me sorprenderia que este ejemplar vuelva a darse la vuelta y buscar una nueva ruta. Lo que si puedo decir que pasara estos dias es que en canarias estamos en alerta por fuertes lluvias. Aqui dejo el link donde he visto el anunciado
http://www.canarias7.com/articulo.cfm?id=275862 (http://www.canarias7.com/articulo.cfm?id=275862)
y en este otro link suele ser muy certero con las predicciones y detallado
http://www.eltiempo.es/telde.html?v=por_hora (http://www.eltiempo.es/telde.html?v=por_hora)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 231454
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS THINNED A BIT THIS
MORNING...THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE
AND TROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
NADINE IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. DROPSONDE DATA
FROM AN ONGOING NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT. A DROPWINDSONDE NEAR THE CENTER AROUND 1030
UTC MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 989.9 MB WITH STRONG WINDS...SO THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB.
NADINE DRIFTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED. UNLIKE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT NADINE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
NADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND NADINE SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER BY THEN. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS NADINE ATTAINING HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 30.6N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 30.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 31.0N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.4N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 31.5N 30.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 30.9N 31.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 32.5N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Otra cosa.... por qué sigue el NHC manteniendo el nombre de Nadine si ha sido una reactivacion??? alguien me lo puede explicar?????
!!Jodo :o!!! esta discusion numero 45 eleva los vientos sostenidos a 60 kts, estamos a las puertas de que sea de nuevo huracan :o solo le faltan 5 kts mas, es decir que podria ser esta misma madrugada de nuevo un huracan.
Hurricane Ginger was a tropical cyclone for 28 days in the North Atlantic Ocean back in 1971.
Ha virado al sur-suroeste, pero en los próximos días no está previsto que realice movimiento hacia el este, sino más bien al norte. Azores es quien más riesgo tiene actualmente.
Ha virado al sur-suroeste, pero en los próximos días no está previsto que realice movimiento hacia el este, sino más bien al norte. Azores es quien más riesgo tiene actualmente.
Segun mi app que tengo de seguimientos de huracanes han retrasado hasta el 27 si sigue a este ritmo el paso a CAT1 y con un rumbo medio errático.... sigue rubo W y luego baja al SW alejandose muchisimo de la macaronesia
Segun mi app que tengo de seguimientos de huracanes han retrasado hasta el 27 si sigue a este ritmo el paso a CAT1 y con un rumbo medio errático.... sigue rubo W y luego baja al SW alejandose muchisimo de la macaronesia
Podrias decirme que aplicacion es? Un saludo
000
WTNT44 KNHC 272034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE HAS CHANGED FROM RAGGED TO
WRAPPED-UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EARLIER ATTEMPT AT EYE FORMATION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO
55 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE...AS RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND
CIRA HAVE BEEN 55-65 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IT IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE THERE ARE SIGNS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 255/6. NADINE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N48W. AFTER 72 HR...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS DIVERGENCE. THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
AS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM. THE UKMET...ECMWF...
CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH WOULD STEER
THE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. SINCE THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A
FORECAST SLOW MOTION AFTER 72 HR.
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR. IN ADDITION...SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH
THE STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SHEAR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD
PARTLY SHIELD THE STORM...AS WELL AS PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THAT COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
NADINE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SHEAR
NADINE COULD ENCOUNTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 28.6N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 28.8N 33.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 29.7N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 31.2N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 32.9N 36.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 35.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 36.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 36.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 291441
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012
ALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW 20
KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN EYE HAS RE-APPEARED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 1112 UTC SHOWED THAT
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOW MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT.
ALSO...CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 80 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS AMSU
ESTIMATE IS 64 KT. BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/12. NADINE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO MERGE WITH THE LOW BETWEEN
24-72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM THEN CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NADINE
WILL SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR.
THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS THE LARGEST LOOP...WITH THE CENTER OF
NADINE MOVING SOUTH OF 30N BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE LOOP SCENARIO...BUT TO KEEP CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT SHOWS LESS OF A SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN
INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST 30N. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER NADINE TO THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ROTATING AROUND
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW APPROACHING NADINE FROM THE SOUTH.
IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY DESPITE THE SHEAR...SO THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS NADINE A HURRICANE THROUGH 24 HR. NADINE
COULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SHEAR AS IT MERGES WITH THE LOW.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE STORM AT 36 HR
AND THE ECMWF SHOWING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THE MERGER BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT IT
WILL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF NADINE. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE BAROCLINIC
CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR THIS AT 120 HR...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE DELAYED IF NADINE
IS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 33.3N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 34.8N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 36.4N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 36.7N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 36.3N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 35.5N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 35.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 38.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Es curioso el ojo esta en medio del oceano y girando como una ruleta rusa mirando que direccion tomar para hacer un desastre.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 011455
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 76
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NADINE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS
ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT...MAKING
NADINE A TROPICAL STORM...AGAIN.
NADINE IS NEARING THE END OF ANOTHER LOOP AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...NADINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER NADINE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...OR WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW.
THE FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
NADINE SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 5...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME ABSORBED
BEFORE THAT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 23 C...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 4...
NADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN
FACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE
FSSE CONSENSUS MODEL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD
THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 35.8N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 35.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 34.9N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 34.9N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 35.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 40.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 47.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 020835
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 79
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
THE STORM IS MAINTAINING A RING OF MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 55 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A REGION OF
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER AS NADINE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...AND
AFTER 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES
BELOW 20 DEG C. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
SSTS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO HAVE UNDERGONE THE TRANSFORMATION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING
FRONTAL IN NATURE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS
EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR TO
MERGE WITH...A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.
NADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING EASTWARD...AND THE MOTION IS NOW AROUND
105/6. FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST...AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. A
VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND RESULT IN A LARGE AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES IN A FEW
DAYS. NADINE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...IF POST-TROPICAL NADINE HAS STILL MAINTAINED
ITS IDENTITY...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE AROUND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CYCLONE UNTIL BECOMING COMPLETELY
ABSORBED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 34.5N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 34.3N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 34.7N 35.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 35.9N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 38.8N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 45.5N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/0600Z 49.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Sin embargo ya Nadine en sus últimos dos días de vida posiblemente. Una poderosa baja no tropical y un frente frío va a absorber a la tormenta, por lo que del jueves no pasaría. Veremos:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c_zps527dfe0c.gif)
...NEVER-ENDING NADINE CONTINUES TOWARD THE AZORES...
11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 2
Location: 34.4°N 35.7°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
000
WTNT44 KNHC 030236
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 82
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
NADINE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING SHEARED APART AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PROTECTING IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...EXPOSING THE CYCLONE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 02/2317
UTC...WHICH CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF NADINE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE GRADUALLY TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
OR WESTERN AZORES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. IN THE 36- TO 72-HOUR TIME
FRAME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT IS STEERED
AROUND A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING. AS NADINE APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 20C. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WOULD
NORMALLY PRODUCE RAPID WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE
IS ALSO FORECAST TO COOL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AND ALLOW NADINE TO
HANG ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES.
BY 48 HOURS...HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE
OF NADINE BY DAY 3...WITH ITS REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED INTO A VERY
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 34.4N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 35.2N 33.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 37.2N 30.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES
36H 04/1200Z 40.8N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NORTH OF AZORES
48H 05/0000Z 44.6N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 06/0000Z 48.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT44 KNHC 040255
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 86
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE IS A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EXTREMELY LARGE OCCLUDED
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NADINE IS NOT A
CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND WELL-PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHALLOW
TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE
THE RATHER DEGRADED AND POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING
MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY CI-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 36-KT WIND REPORT
FROM SHIP BATFR18 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT 0200 UTC.
THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21 KT. NADINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN 48
TO 72 HOURS...THEN POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL NADINE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.
THE 36-KT SHIP REPORT AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FROM NOW THROUGH LANDFALL
IN THE AZORES. NADINE COULD MERGE WITH EITHER A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OR CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH A WARM
FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT BY 24
HOURS...CLEAR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF THE
STATUS OF NADINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS BATFR13...BATFR15...AND BATFR18...WHICH HAVE BEEN NAVIGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION OF NADINE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 37.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 40.2N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 49.0N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
...BYE BYE NADINE... ...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...
11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 4
Location: 40.0°N 26.7°W
Moving: NNE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
000
WTNT44 KNHC 041438
TCDAT4
REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER
OF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON
RECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN
A DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 40.0N 26.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG