000
WTNT34 KNHC 142032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

...NADINE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 53.4W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1645 MI...2645 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NADINE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


visto lo visto Nadine se hara de rogar.

Me parece que esta vez se han quedado cortos... Explosión convectiva, y ¿torre cálida?... En microondas ya comienza a aparecer un ojo...





FASCINANTE LUCHA DEL CICLÓN CONTRA LA CIZALLADURA evil :O*

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150243
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

...NADINE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Por fin Nadine ya es un Huracan de cat1
por cierto Gale enhorabuena,lo tenias claro que estaba apuntito.

Así es José!!!

Nadine ha seguido fortaleciendose  hasta convertirse en huracán esta madrugada,con vientos máximos de hasta 120km/h.


 
Tengo la sensación que entre el área de altas presiones y la baja presión en niveles altos de la atmósfera que se encuentra en Azores en estos momentos ayudará a girar a Nadine al Este-Sureste  y no llegará a tocar las Azores de lleno,todo esto si lo mapas a niveles altos actuales se mantiene hasta el próximo Miércoles , que es cuando Nadine se acerca a las Azores.Que conste que es una opinión personal.......veremos que pasa finalmente 

Finalmente, mis razonamientos basados en las imágenes satelitales no iban mal encaminadas... Sin embargo, hoy el ojo de NADINE en el microondas aparece abierto... Tiene dificultades de nuevo.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150246
TCDAT4

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

NADINE HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH
THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT
FROM TAFB TO 77 KT FROM SAB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THAT SOME
TILT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE BASED ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT IS AFFECTING
NADINE...AND THIS MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...ONLY
MINIMAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY
SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND TRENDS TOWARD THE LGEM BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/12...AS NADINE IS MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL
ENTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A QUICK EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL ABOUT DAY 3. A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WHILE
THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR
THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 30.0N  52.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 30.8N  51.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 31.2N  48.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 31.1N  45.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 31.2N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 33.0N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 35.5N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 37.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tremendo el virazón pronosticado... Veremos si es cierto que la cizalladura seguirá alta, y cómo influirá en el ciclón.

La última imagen que pones, sobre los posibles rumbos de NADINE, según los miembros del GFS, es muy elocuente Hasta Azores la cosa está más o menos clara pero, después.............. tararí...

Eso sí, como se quede estacionario sobre las islas, la "panzá" de agua que van a recibir va a ser minina

Ya ha salido la actualización de productos del CNH sobre el ciclón. Destacan la sorpresa en cuanto a la batalla que está presentando NADINE a la cizalladura, que está en valores hostiles de 25 y 35 nudos...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150852
TCDAT4

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

NADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING...
ALTHOUGH A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM
TAFB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE
76 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

NADINE CONTINUES ITS RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 050/13.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD IN
THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT
COULD MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF.  AFTER
THREE DAYS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THESE MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...AND THEN IS SHIFTED
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.

NADINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 25-35 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF SO WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. :O* ALL GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS AT LEAST 25-35 KT OF SHEAR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET FORECAST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO INTERACT WITH NADINE IN 72-96 HR...
WHICH COULD CHANGE THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...THE
RESULTS OF THIS INTERACTION ARE NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN ANY OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 30.7N  51.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 31.1N  49.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 31.1N  46.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 31.0N  43.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 31.4N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 33.0N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 35.5N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 37.5N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NADINE es encontrado más fuerte por los predictores del CNH, a pesar de la lucha que mantiene contra la cizalladura. Ese movimiento extraño que comentábamos este mediodía, mostrado por el modelo europeo, es ya tomado en consideración por esta actualización:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 151449
TCDAT4

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

ALTHOUGH NADINE IS STILL A TILTED HURRICANE...THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING.  A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED DEEP
CONVECTION NEARLY SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB...SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT.

NADINE IS QUICKLY RECURVING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
070/13 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS ENTERING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES...
AND NADINE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...A BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 3 WITH ANOTHER
DEEP-LAYER LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE SHOWING A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED WHILE NADINE IS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AND
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  THE FORECASTS ARE VERY
SIMILAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE NEW ONE LYING BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS SUCH THAT
IT SHOULD TEMPER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THEREFORE...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS NADINE AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.  COLDER WATER SHOULD ULTIMATELY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 30.9N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 31.0N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 30.9N  44.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 31.0N  40.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 31.7N  37.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 34.0N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 36.5N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 37.0N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG