Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Octubre 19, 2009, 13:45:18 pm
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EL INVEST 96C ha evolucionado, y ya es depresión tropical............ El boletín de discusión del Centro de Huracanes del Pacífico Central es muy interesante porque da rareza a la formación de este ciclón tropical, formado a partir de una vaguada monzónica:
WTPA42 PHFO 190900
TCDCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 18 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C IS LIKELY A RARE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...WHICH SEEMS OUT OF PLACE FROM THE TYPICAL DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONES WE SEE HERE. IT ORIGINATED ALONG A VERY WELL
DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN ESTABLISHED FAR SOUTH OF THE
ALOHA STATE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. JUST 24 HOURS AGO...THE PRECURSOR
CLOUD SYSTEM FOR THREE-C WAS AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED MONSOON GYRE. THIS LARGE GYRE BECAME MORE CONCENTRATED
OVERNIGHT...AND BY 18/1500 UTC THIS MORNING IT HAD DEVELOPED A MUCH
MORE CIRCULAR APPEARANCE. OUR COLLEAGUES WHO DEAL WITH MANY
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN
TYPICALLY SEE THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ONE OR MORE TIMES PER YEAR.
THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE SLOW...BUT STEADY...
DEVELOPMENT OF THREE-C. THESE LARGE MONSOON SYSTEMS TEND TO DEVELOP
RATHER SLOWLY. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THEIR
POTENTIAL TO ULTIMATELY BECOME AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THREE-C HAD WARMED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAYTIME DIURNAL MINIMUM...THE COLDEST
THUNDERSTORM TOPS ARE NOW CLOSE TO MINUS 76C. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO APPEAR TO BE REDEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SIGNATURE OF THREE-C
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VERY IMPRESSIVE DUE TO ITS LARGE SIZE. THIS
IS ALSO TRUE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW ABOVE THE
LOW-LEVEL FEATURE IS ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER THREE-C. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FOR THREE-C INDICATES 2 KT FROM 60
DEGREES. THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...PHFO...JTWC AND SAB...WERE IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THESE AGENCIES ALSO INDICATED T NUMBERS OF 1.5
TO 2.0. THE QUIKSCAT PASS APPEARED TO SHOW ONE 35 KT WIND BARB ABOUT
55 NM NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION AT 0600 UTC...HAVE MAINTAINED THREE-C AS A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE ONE REASON THREE-C IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE AT 275/17. THE CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL TRACK FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THREE-C WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...BUT THEN WAS BLENDED
BACK TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST THEREAFTER.
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE CIRA ANALYSIS...
ALONG WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C ALONG THREE-C/S
FORECAST TRACK...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IN
ADDITION...THE UW/CIMSS FORECAST INDICATES LOW VALUES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SYSTEM/S TRACK. THEREFORE...NUDGED THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST TOWARD THE ICON...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY TWO DAYS FROM NOW.
THREE-C REMAINS FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...ANYONE IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
NEEDS TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TAKES THREE-C NEAR THAT ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A
HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 8.9N 158.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 9.6N 161.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 11.3N 163.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 12.9N 165.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 14.5N 167.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.4N 169.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 171.6W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 19.2N 174.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Bien, ya es tormenta tropical este ciclón.............. Se llama NEKI :P El boletín de discusión, el nº4, mantiene la rareza de este ciclón por su origen:
WTPA42 PHFO 191505
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 AM HST MON OCT 19 2009
THE LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...CURRENTLY MORE THAN 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU
HAWAII...REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LARGE SPIRALING CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE FEEDING INTO DEEP
TROPICAL CONVECTION THAT IS CLOSE TO THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER...OR LLCC. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS TYPE IS LIKELY A RARE
OCCURRENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS ARE MUCH MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SLOW...BUT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TYPE
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE ITS POTENTIAL TO
ULTIMATELY BECOME A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DESPITE THE LARGE SIZE AND IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CONTINUED COOLING OF THE
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LLCC IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES...PHFO...JTWC
AND SAB...HAD A RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE
LLCC. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS AT 0820 UTC SEEMED TO
INDICATE IT WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT MOTION
IS 290/12.
THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES ALSO HAD A RANGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES. THE LATEST T-NUMBERS RANGED
FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0425
UTC INDICATED THERE WERE ALREADY A FEW 35 KT WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE APPARENT LLCC THAT WERE NOT FLAGGED FOR RAIN CONTAMINATION.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C IS NOW UPGRADED
TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. IT HAS RECEIVED THE HAWAIIAN NAME
NEKI...WHICH IS NEXT ON THE LIST OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES IN OUR
BASIN.
THE LATEST UW/CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FOR THREE-C
INDICATES 2 KT FROM 37 DEGREES. NEKI IS SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...AND SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT...THE
CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL TRACK FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THREE-C WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN...TCON AND GUNA CONSENSUS FORECASTS.
BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST...NEKI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
CIRA ANALYSIS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UW/CIMSS
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST INDICATES LOW VALUES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NEKI/S TRACK. THEREFORE...THESE CONDITIONS ALL
APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE ICON...WHICH BRINGS THE
SYSTEM TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS. NEKI MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER...SINCE THE LATEST SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
THREE-C REMAINS FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...ANYONE IN THE
VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND NEEDS TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE
ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES NIKI NEAR THAT ISLAND
WEDNESDAY AS A HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 9.5N 159.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 10.5N 161.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 163.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 13.4N 166.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 14.8N 168.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.4N 170.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 173.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 19.6N 175.3W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Resumen : ;)
comenzó en el pacifico este como INVEST 94E ---traspasó la linea de cambio horario 140W y con ello fue asignada como Invest 96C ...convirtiendose en Depresion Tropical 03C y ahora en TT Neki ..probablemente le cambiaran el nombre oficial de nuevo si entra en aguas del pacifico oeste tras la linea 180W
35kts-1006mb a las 0h19 de hoy
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1739750011.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1739750011.html)
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1013236498.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1013236498.html)
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1550947433.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1550947433.html)
(http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/330/cp200903satneki.jpg) (http://img15.imageshack.us/i/cp200903satneki.jpg/)
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NEKI sigue manteniendo un aspecto muy aceptable, y los pronósticos siguen favorables para su intensificación 8)
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Tal y como comenta Gale, la situación es favorable para que siga reforzándose. Posibilidad de que llega a Huracán categoría 1. Por el momento mantiene el estatus de TS con 40Kts.
Dejo imágenes
(http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/1967/imagegk.gif)
(http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/3535/image2w.gif)
Como se ve, pasará al SW de las islas Hawai. Los modelos la llevan en dirección NW-E.
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Me parece que NEKI está ganando organización a marchas forzadas :o :o
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NEKI ya es huracán............
WTPA42 PHFO 210929
TCDCP2
HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2009
NEKI HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE AND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.
FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC WERE 4.0...4.5 AND 4.5. WE HAVE
MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 75 KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A
VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 35 KT WINDS EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER
OUT ON THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDES OF THE STORM. WE HAVE MADE
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WIND RADII TO REFLECT THIS PATTERN.
NEKI CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT...WITH MORE OF THE MODELS SHOWING NEKI GRADUALLY RECURVING.
THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF TROUGHS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS DIGGING TOWARD THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL VEER AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS AND NEKI WILL
CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO MOST
OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS.
NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SST VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.
THOSE CHANGES WILL CAUSE NEKI TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP NEKI FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON
ISLAND TO KEEP TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM REACHING THE ISLAND
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK TO WARRANT KEEPING THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON. BY 72 HOURS...NEKI MAY
BE CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT
BETWEEN FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND LISIANSKI ISLAND. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY REACH THE MONUMENT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 16.3N 166.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 166.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.0N 167.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.6N 168.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 168.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 23.8N 168.9W 100 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 169.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 169.0W 80 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Y mucho cuidado porque puede pasar sobre algunas de las pequeñas islas hawaianas del oeste del archipiélago... Y encima como major...
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Imagen multisensor en la que se descubre el ojo...
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ya es categoria 2 ..90kts-975mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1604825355.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1604825355.html)
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;)
(http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/9049/gifsby12hr04neki.gif) (http://img36.imageshack.us/i/gifsby12hr04neki.gif/)
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Este bichito llegó a alcanzar la categoría 3 en la escala de Saffir Simpson, pasando por las islas más pequeñitas y occidentales de las Hawaii, y ahora ya está moribundo, aunque con aspecto de tormenta tropical en las imágenes del satélite, saliendo de aguas tropicales y siendo absorbido por la corriente general del oeste.