Pues de momento se resiste a perder su condición de ciclón tropical

000
WTNT41 KNHC 021450
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69
KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER.  THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL
SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND
700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  IF
THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.  WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS
OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.   AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN
BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING
IS EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 29.2N  73.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 37.1N  69.7W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 41.8N  66.9W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 47.5N  62.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 58.0N  54.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  47.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

GOES East 1 km Visible Weather Satellite Picture, NASA.

Interesantísimo lo que ha posteado Jeff Master...


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=852&tstamp=200711

TORMENTA TROPICAL NOEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO  25


NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT VIERNES 2 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2007


...NOEL SE ESTA CONVIRTIENDO UN FUERTE CICLON EXTRATROPICAL...


PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE GALERNA PARA BERMUDA.

LOS INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS
DESDE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HACIA EL NORTE DEBEN DE CONSULTAR LOS
COMUNICADOS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR LAS OFICINAS LOCALES DEL SNM. LOS
INTERESES MARITIMOS CANADIENSES DEBEN CONSULTAR LOS PRODUCTOS
EMITIDOS POR EL CENTRO DE HURACANES CANADIENSES DEL AMBIENTE DE
CANADA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS
POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGICA.

A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NOEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.4 OESTE O
COMO A 450 MILLAS...725 KM...AL OESTE DE BERMUDA O COMO A 320
MILLAS...510 KM...AL SURESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE.

NOEL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR.
SE ESPERA QUE ACELERE AL NOR NORESTE EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NOEL ESTA EN TRANSICION PARA
CONVERTIRES EN UN FUERTE CICLON EXTRATROPICAL. SE ESPERAN MUY POCOS
CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110
KM...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM. SE ANTICIPA QUE EL CICLON
AUMENTARA EN TAMANO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA DESDE LA INFORMACION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 980 MILIBARES...28.94 PULGADAS.

SE ESPERA QUE NOEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE DOS HASTA CUATRO
PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS TOTALES AISLADAS DE 6 PULGADAS A
TRAVES DEL ESTE DE NEW ENGLAND.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11:00 AM EDT...31.4 NORTE...72.4 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MILIBARES.

ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL
DE HURACANES SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA.


PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA/FRANKLIN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTCPAT1+shtml/022103.shtml

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.  SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY
NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL.  THUS THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NOEL ADVISORY.

CURRENT MOTION IS 040/17.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
SMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER.

BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND
AREAS.  THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 31.4N  72.4W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  71.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 39.4N  69.3W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 44.7N  65.7W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 50.6N  61.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 61.0N  52.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 68.0N  46.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

Menuda potencia en su transición extratropical... Y demostrado que los forecasters americanos también usan los diagramas de fase en sus pronósticos y análisis

Extraído del blog de Jeff Masters:

Noel's trail of destruction: Noel's death toll now stands at 127, with many more missing. The Dominican Republic suffered 82 deaths, Haiti 43, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season.

 :O* 70kts ---971mb

 :O* 65kts--970mb