Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Fox Cane en Octubre 11, 2010, 23:17:42 pm
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 112031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1810W5_NL+gif/203114W5_NL_sm.gif)
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg)
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 112032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND
AN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND
PAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
A BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND
EARLIER ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. PAULA
IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A BROAD
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE
BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS PAULA DRIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AT DAY 5.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND
ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE.
BASED ON THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 16.0N 84.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 84.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 86.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.6N 86.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 20.0N 86.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 20.0N 85.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
La vaguada y frente asociado que atraerá a Paula hacia el norte, sin embargo no parece que vaya a ser lo suficientemente potente como para llevársela consigo, y Paula quedará merodeando por el Caribe occidental varios días. Situación peligrosa e impredecible sin duda.
(http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/8444/goes19152010284dlmfym.jpg)
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Aquí en Quintana Roo inmediatamente nos han puesto en alerta verde. Comentan que por la trayectoria del sistema representa un riesgo para el estado. Desde Cancún hasta Chetumal hay aviso de huracán.
http://www.qroo.gob.mx/qroo/Temporada/Alerta.php?Pagina=VistaAlerta.php&IdBoletin=3320
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Hora local de Caracas 7:30 pm
Asi es se forma la decimosexta tormenta de la temporada sobre las costas orientales de Honduras. La proximidad a tierra no permite una evolución inmediata pero se estará alejando de las costas hondureñas rumbo al NO y se espera fortalecimiento progresivo con capacidad de alcanzar CAT2 en su trayectoria hacia Belice y Yucatán mañana en la noche o durante la madrugada del miercoles, el brusco fortalecimiento se debe a la baja cizalladura de la zona, la SST y los elevados niveles de humedad. a partir del miercoles es incierto su movimiento, los vientos en superficie se debilitan y podría mantenerse erratico frente a las costas caribeñas de Yucatán, mientras que algunos modelos lo mandan tierra adentro sobre la península llegando a su disipasión, pero otros consideran que la posible extensión de un frente frio en formación sobre el E de los EE.UU produce un brusco viraje del sistema hacia el NE, por lo que Paula atravezaria el Oeste de Cuba, Sur de la Florida Y Bahamas. Sin embargo todo dependerá de la intensificación y desplazamiento que experimente dentro de las proximas 48 horas. Por ahora a esperar.
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/2-10.jpg)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/3-9.gif)
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La convección más profunda comienza a rodear al centro. Eso es síntoma de que experimenta un fortalecimiento rápido. Quizá en el próximo parte este a punto de ser Huracán, sino es que lo sea ya a esas horas ::) ::)
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Ya es huracán de categoría 1.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1810W5_NL+gif/203114W5_NL_sm.gif)
000
WTNT33 KNHC 120844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010
CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION
...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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Gracias por estar al loro, Santi... Con la movida que hay hoy en el Mediterráneo y demás, imposible estar al tanto de todo :P
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Seguimos en alerta verde, pero en cualquier momento nos podrían subir a alerta amarilla. De momento todo sigue su curso normal, no hay suspensión de clases ni compras de pánico. Parece ser que El Huracán Paula rozará Cancún :-X :-X :-X
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Sube a cat.2, ante la sorpresa del NHC :P
Veremos a ver si no estamos a las puertas de un proceso de RI
AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
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Sube a cat.2, ante la sorpresa del NHC :P
Veremos a ver si no estamos a las puertas de un proceso de RI
AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
Qué es el Ri?
Ya es categoría 2, y aún le quedan 10 horas en el mar...será que pueda subir a categoría 3 ?
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Qué es el Ri?
Ya es categoría 2, y aún le quedan 10 horas en el mar...será que pueda subir a categoría 3 ?
RI= Rápida Intensificación. Sí tiene alguna oportunidad de llegar a cat.3, aunque sea por poco tiempo antes de que la cizalladura le debilite.
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Hora local de Caracas 8:50 pm
Tremendo brinco alcanza Paula, CAT2 en tan solo 12 horas :o :o . Novedades de este sistema: Es un pequeño huracán , muy compacto y con un ojo muy apretado pero algo insólito han indicado los cazahuracanes esta tarde: El VORTICE presentaba aristas, o sea, era más CUADRADO que circular :o :o :o , estaré atento al Blog de la CIMSS y sus extraordinarias publicaciones para ver si captaron dicha característica en sus imágenes animadas de alta resolución.
Todo indica que Paula una vez alcance la porción Norte de la Península de Yucatán gire considerablemente al NE y cruzaría eventualmente gran parte de la isla de Cuba a partir del jueves. Por ahora las alertas solo activadas para las costas caribeñas mexicanas.
Para la hora la pinta de PAULA es decepcionante para ser un CAT2, parece que esta siendo cizallado por el sur, será que un gigantesco flujo anticiclónico en altura lo esta afectando? es posible. Adjunto imágenes infrarojas y radar doppler, asi como una interesante imágen de vapor de agua donde se observa claramente un anticiclón inmenso centrado en el oeste de Cuba, llamatico por el extenso diametro.
RESUMEN DE LAS 7:00 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMACION DEL CNH
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...19.6 NORTE 86.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 85 MILLAS...135 KILOMETROS AL SUR SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO
CERCA DE 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS AL SUR SUROESTE DEL EXTREMO
OESTE DE CUBA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH...160 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 350 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR
HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...981 MILIBARAS...28.97 PULGADAS
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/imagen_000005-2.jpg)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1-12.gif)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/imagen_000004-3.jpg)
Fuente: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/ (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/)
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Sigue como categoria 2.
Tracking Info For Hurricane Paula
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/11/10 16.0N 84.0W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/12/10 16.8N 84.6W 70 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/12/10 17.6N 85.2W 75 992 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/12/10 18.6N 85.7W 75 991 Category 1 Hurricane
17 GMT 10/12/10 18.8N 85.8W 100 981 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/12/10 19.2N 86.0W 100 981 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/13/10 19.9N 86.0W 100 981 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/13/10 20.7N 86.0W 100 984 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/13/10 21.3N 85.8W 100 984 Category 2 Hurricane
Parece que va a recorrer la isla de Cuba al copleto, de oeste a este, que curioso.
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me parece que lo han bajado a cat 1
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En estos momentos la tienen como TS. He estado siguiendo un rato el doppler de los americanos del NHC y vaya 2 formaciones (posibles Supercells :D :D) que lleva embedido el bicho en dirección a los cayos de Florida. Lástima no haya una forma mejor de seguir el desarrollo en el radar de estos ecos :'( :'( :'( :'( y si podemos ver algún indicio más claro de que son exactamente.
(http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/251/2010101419h4629.png)
Me he puesto a leer el hilo abierto hace tiempo sobre estas formaciones (muy instructivo por cierto) y la verdad podía ser interesante profundizar sobre la cuestión de como seguir estas formaciones a través del radar, ya que es lo unico que tenemos a no ser que nos pase una por encima ;D ;D ;D
Hay algo nuevo sobre seguimiento de situaciones de tiempo severo y la interpretación con imagenes radar???. Hace poco leí un documento publicado por el Servicio Meteorológico de Cataluña (METEOCAT), sobre un estudio de estos fenómenos y su seguimiento en los doppler... pero está en lengua catalana... aunque se puede hacer un resumen. ???
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Hora local de caracas 8 Pm
Continúa debilitándose. La cizalladura del viento y la cercanía ha tierra la mantienen desorganizada, el vórtice se ha derrumbado y presenta aspecto asimétrico. La cizalladura proveniente del sur está empujando la mayoria de las tormentas hacia el norte por lo que Cuba esta recibiendo pocas lluvias, la mayoria al norte de las costas cubanas, en torno a los cayos de la Florida. Modelos y análisis de vientos estiman aumento considerable de la cizalladura dentro de las próximas 48 horas y aunado a la interacción del sistema con las tierras altas del centro de cuba predicen una disipación casi inminente para el sábado en la mañana. Por ahora algunas lluvias son posibles sobre los cayos de la Florida y sectores aislados de la isla, sin embargo es posible que no se amerite alerta de tormenta tropical para la Florida. Veremos.
RESUMEN DE LAS 8:00 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...23.0 NORTE 82.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MILLAS...40 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE HAVANA CUBA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...55 MPH...90 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ESTE O 90 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1-13.jpg)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1-13.gif)