Más bien me parecen sombras de algunos 'overshootings' de tormentas muy intensas sobre el LLCC de la tormenta

Esta es más reciente, creo, y se ve esa nueva tormenta ya sin sombras.

Me temo que ya podemos olvidarnos del recurve............ Los modelos han reculado en ese sentido, y ahora el ciclón tropical lo manda a aguas del Atlántico Central.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 270847
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

PHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE
TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE
SHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH
IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
PHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT.
THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN
BYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING
PHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 16.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 16.7N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 17.6N  37.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 18.7N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 19.9N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 22.3N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 24.0N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 25.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Parece que el hecho de que no se haya fortalecido lo esperado, ha permitido que los vientos de capas bajas sean los que estén dominando o determinando su rumbo, llevándoselo hacia el NW e impidiendo el recurve temprano.

Hora local de Caracas 17:30pm

Philippe permanece como tormenta tropical:



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 43.6W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

PHILIPPE, es otro ciclón que está dando la campanada, al seguir intensificándose a pesar de la cizalladura prohibitiva sobre él, y dejando claro que hay mucho que aprender sobre estos fenómenos de la naturaleza

000
WTNT42 KNHC 020252
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 0045 UTC SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 58 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING EVEN MORE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
WEAKENING AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR GRADUALLY
DECREASING...AND FALLING BELOW 20 KT AS PHILIPPE MOVES UNDER A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND
RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 290/08. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS
PHILIPPE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE
WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF PHILIPPE. BY DAY 3...THE
LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND ALLOW PHILIPPE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...AT DAY 5
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE SLOWER GFS AND
THE FASTER ECMWF IS MORE THAN 550 NM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...AS IT IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING WITH THE TROUGH
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LARGE AND APPARENTLY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
FORWARD MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT RADII IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 25.4N  49.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 25.8N  51.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 26.0N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 25.8N  57.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 26.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 28.0N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 31.5N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

El único problema que le veo a esto, es que tenemos el dicho Anticiclón muy bien anclado y no se va a mover. Si no llega estar ahí pues muy probablemente nos habríamos comido de lleno a Philippe, que no nos vendría mal. Una auténtica pena evil evil