Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: AngelAldair94 en Septiembre 24, 2011, 16:11:17 pm
-
Ya ha nacido esta nueva depresion tropical, que a mi parecer ya debió haber sido nombrada por el aspecto que tiene. Adjunto el mapa de trayectoria, que podría ser que haga una visita a Islas Canarias si no me equivoco evil Aunque suena difícil debido a que habrá un "muro" que evitará que siga su trayectoria al NE, según lo visto por el GFS a muchas horas :P
-
Hora local de Caracas 18pm
A cambiar título de tópico ;D ;D
DT-17L evoluciona a Tormenta tropical Philippe, lejana al SO de las Cabo Verde. Pequeña pero organizada:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000008-6.jpg)
Sumario
RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...11.2 NORTE 27.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 345 MILLAS...550 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE MAS AL SUR
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS
-
Pues sigue allí, le dan chance de convertírse en Huracán en unos días. El modelo GFS le da algo de fuerza, aunque al final del período la deja con poco movimiento debido al anticiclón que estará encima de ella, hasta causarle la muerte en altas latitudes.
-
Ya ha nacido esta nueva depresion tropical, que a mi parecer ya debió haber sido nombrada por el aspecto que tiene. Adjunto el mapa de trayectoria, que podría ser que haga una visita a Islas Canarias si no me equivoco evil Aunque suena difícil debido a que habrá un "muro" que evitará que siga su trayectoria al NE, según lo visto por el GFS a muchas horas :P
Interesante mapa:
-
Desde luego, no deja de ser algo interesante esas trayectorias. Vaya recurvamiento evil evil
17L.PHILIPPE.40kts.1004mb.11.9N.29.3W
(http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/8599/visyz.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/821/visyz.jpg/)
-
Y le siguen dando una buena probabilidad de convertirse en huracán. Adjunto el siguiente mapa del modelo GFS a 180 hrs. No sé si lo que ve cerca de Canarias sea Philippe Tropical o Extratropical. Es mucho tiempo aún, pero vale la pena seguír a este sistema. Muy interesante evil
-
000
WTNT42 KNHC 252047
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG A CURVED BAND
LOCATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND A CDO-LIKE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED.
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY HAVE INCREASED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
SOME MODELS RECURVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...
WHILE OTHERS ALLOW THE RIDGE TO REBUILD...RESULTING IN A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. THIS DISCREPANCY IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY
OF PHILIPPE...AS A DEEPER AND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST
BY LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION
ACCORDINGLY.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
SUBSTANTIALLY...AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 13.2N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 14.0N 33.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 15.1N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.1N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 17.3N 36.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.0N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/STEWART
-
::) ::) ::) ::)
Esta previsión me parece la menos probable... Peeeeeeeero..... Ahí está...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7524/phil_xeq2.gif)
-
Esta previsión me parece la menos probable... Peeeeeeeero..... Ahí está...
:o evil :o
A ver en qué queda la cosa, porque de cumplirse esa posibilidad que muestra ese modelo que has mostrado, quedaría "enfocada" hacia Canarias :P
:O*
-
Se muestra un poquito más potente...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 34.2W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Aquí una imagen reciente del sistema...
(http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/1589/tsphillip.jpg)
-
El boletín de discusión del CNH indica que no ha cambiado demasiado en intensidad en las últimas horas..............
De todos modos, aunque se cumplan los pronósticos de trayectoria, el recurve viene originado precisamente por el establecimiento de una profunda vaguada atlántica, cuyos vientos periféricos le obligan a tomar ese rumbo, pero también hace que las condiciones para su supervivencia se vuelvan muy hostiles.
No me creo el pronóstico del GFDL en cuanto se vaya a intensificar, pero vamos a ver cómo se desenvuelve el ciclón bajo esas condiciones duras para su supervivencia.
-
Con este mapa el recurve se ve bastante claro, si el ciclón no se debilita más rápido de lo previsto, perdiendo su verticalidad y siendo más sensible a los vientos en niveles más altos. Si se debilitase antes, es probable que el recurve completo no se completase.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7949/PHILIPPE_jwf0.png)
-
El movimiento que viene siguiendo la tormenta tropical desde que se formó, viene determinada por el borde suroccidental en que se encuentra de la circulación anticiclónica que domina el norte de África.
Fijáos la profundidad que va a coger la vaguada atlántica, de cumplirse los pronósticos. Si PHILIPPE aguante fuerte, el flujo de SW le obligará a recurvar hacia el noreste 8)
Adjunto mapa con el attach.
-
El movimiento que viene siguiendo la tormenta tropical desde que se formó, viene determinada por el borde suroccidental en que se encuentra de la circulación anticiclónica que domina el norte de África.
Fijáos la profundidad que va a coger la vaguada atlántica, de cumplirse los pronósticos. Si PHILIPPE aguante fuerte, el flujo de SW le obligará a recurvar hacia el noreste 8)
Adjunto mapa con el attach.
No si esperate tu que no sea otro Candelaria entrando por el estrecho ;)
-
Pues con la curvatura que puede tomar el jet en los próximos días, no me extrañaría que esa fuese la primera perturbación seria que nos afectara esta temporada.
-
Me voy a meter de lleno a seguir este sistema,me parece más que interesante.
Yo lo veo un ojo en las últimas actualizacines del Sat.
¿Ojo de PHILIPPE?
(http://i53.tinypic.com/2qs5m5y.jpg)
-
Más bien me parecen sombras de algunos 'overshootings' de tormentas muy intensas sobre el LLCC de la tormenta :)
Esta es más reciente, creo, y se ve esa nueva tormenta ya sin sombras.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7795/philvis_xps9.jpg)
-
El microondas, muy clarificador, ya qe muestra la convección desplazada al S del LLCC 8)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3407/phismicro_uhw2.jpg)
-
Me temo que ya podemos olvidarnos del recurve............ Los modelos han reculado en ese sentido, y ahora el ciclón tropical lo manda a aguas del Atlántico Central.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 270847
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
PHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE
TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE
SHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH
IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
PHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT.
THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN
BYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING
PHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 16.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.7N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.6N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 19.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.3N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 24.0N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Parece que el hecho de que no se haya fortalecido lo esperado, ha permitido que los vientos de capas bajas sean los que estén dominando o determinando su rumbo, llevándoselo hacia el NW e impidiendo el recurve temprano.
-
Pues es verdad. Vaya pena :'( :'( Estaba muy interesante este sistema al poder acercarse a la península pero los modelos han reculado y ahora lo llevan al centro del Atlántico :-\
-
Hora local de Caracas 17:30pm
Philippe permanece como tormenta tropical:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/Image_000012-5.jpg)
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 43.6W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
-
Y ahí sigue como tal :D1 :D1 :D1 Sigue aguantando, y los modelos le dan vidilla a pesar de que la cizalladura en los próximos días debe machacarla viva! ::)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 302042
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN RE-COVERED BY DEEP CONVECTION
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45
KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.9 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.
HILARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH AND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERING
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THE
COL REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND IS FORECAST TO BE
CONTINUOUSLY BLASTED BY STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS ARE INDICATING UP TO
40 KT OF SHEAR WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS PARADOXICAL...
HOWEVER...THAT NEARLY EVERY INTENSITY MODEL IS EITHER SHOWING
PHILIPPE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS ALONG THE LOWER BOUND OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING AT 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS
NORTH. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES NOT BECOME
SIGNIFICANT UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT PHILIPPE WILL RECURVE BY DAY 4 OR 5 AS IT
APPROACHES A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND KEEPS PHILIPPE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE...MOST LIKELY BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO DE-AMPLIFY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW RECURVATURE BY DAY 5 BUT IS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NOT AS FAST AS THE 12Z
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS AT THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 23.5N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 24.2N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 25.7N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 26.1N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 26.0N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 26.5N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
-
PHILIPPE, es otro ciclón que está dando la campanada, al seguir intensificándose a pesar de la cizalladura prohibitiva sobre él, y dejando claro que hay mucho que aprender sobre estos fenómenos de la naturaleza ::)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 020252
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 0045 UTC SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 58 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING EVEN MORE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
WEAKENING AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR GRADUALLY
DECREASING...AND FALLING BELOW 20 KT AS PHILIPPE MOVES UNDER A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND
RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 290/08. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS
PHILIPPE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE
WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF PHILIPPE. BY DAY 3...THE
LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND ALLOW PHILIPPE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...AT DAY 5
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE SLOWER GFS AND
THE FASTER ECMWF IS MORE THAN 550 NM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...AS IT IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING WITH THE TROUGH
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LARGE AND APPARENTLY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
FORWARD MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE 34-KT AND 50-KT RADII IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 25.4N 49.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 25.8N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 26.0N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 25.8N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 26.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 28.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 31.5N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
-
Veo que le dan la posibilidad de convertirse en huracán en los próximos días...
Alguien puede poner algunos modelos de trayectoria?
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:40am
Se mantiene como una tormenta tropical "fuerte" pero con un aspecto terrible por la cizalla y el aire seco:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-5.jpg)
Esta esperando por un boleto sin retorno en ese frente estacionario que lo arrastraría al NE si es que sobrevive y llegán a enganchar:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b-8.jpg)
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 58.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
-
Hora local de Caracas 11:15am
Philippe alcanza la CAT1 y se engancha al frente frío, con el cual viajará al NE acompañando al sistema frontal. Lo pronósticado :D1:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-6.jpg)
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 60.0W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
-
El único problema que le veo a esto, es que tenemos el dicho Anticiclón muy bien anclado y no se va a mover. Si no llega estar ahí pues muy probablemente nos habríamos comido de lleno a Philippe, que no nos vendría mal. Una auténtica pena :'( :'( evil evil