Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Octubre 21, 2010, 10:08:28 am
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Y parece que podrá tomar el nombre de RICHARD sin dificultades... Curioso giro el que parece que se verá obligado a tomar...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 210232
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...RESULTING IN
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NOW MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. RECONNAISSANCE DATA
FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE
TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS.
SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/02. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION AT THE BASE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TO THE WEST OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...
SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH
THE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TROUGH. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN
A DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.5N 81.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.1N 80.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 16.8N 80.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.4N 81.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 16.3N 81.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.6N 84.1W 50 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 87.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 90.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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Su aspecto no es demasiado organizado, la verdad...
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Según el "Best Track", la 19L ya es tormenta tropical, y le toca el nombre de RICHARD ;)
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al192010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010211240
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
RICHARD, AL, L, , , , , 19, 2010, TS, O, 2010101700, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL192010
AL, 19, 2010101606, , BEST, 0, 108N, 751W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101612, , BEST, 0, 109N, 757W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101618, , BEST, 0, 110N, 763W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101700, , BEST, 0, 113N, 774W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 19, 2010101706, , BEST, 0, 117N, 784W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 19, 2010101712, , BEST, 0, 123N, 795W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101718, , BEST, 0, 128N, 804W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101800, , BEST, 0, 133N, 810W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101806, , BEST, 0, 137N, 814W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101812, , BEST, 0, 141N, 818W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101818, , BEST, 0, 146N, 823W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101900, , BEST, 0, 153N, 828W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101906, , BEST, 0, 160N, 831W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101912, , BEST, 0, 167N, 833W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101918, , BEST, 0, 174N, 834W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102000, , BEST, 0, 177N, 832W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102006, , BEST, 0, 178N, 829W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102012, , BEST, 0, 177N, 825W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 190, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102018, , BEST, 0, 176N, 817W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 175N, 812W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINETEEN, M,
AL, 19, 2010102106, , BEST, 0, 172N, 808W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINETEEN, M,
AL, 19, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 165N, 807W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RICHARD, S,
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Adjunto la última imagen del visible de este ciclón tropical:
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Hora local de Caracas 9:30 am
El avión cazahuracanes confirma la formación de la tormenta tropical Richard en aguas adyacentes a la Isla de Jamaica, específicamente al SE. Muestra una trayectoria en lazo y se espera el giro circular para adentrarse hacia la península de Yucatán con posibilidades de alcanzarla CAT1 antes de tocar tierra en costas caribeñas mexicanas. Veremos.
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1-14.jpg)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/2-12.gif)
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La trayectoria "prevista" por el NHC es ésta:
(http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/2330/203413w5nlsm.gif)
Pongo "prevista" entre comillas porque en su discusión dejan bien claro que no tienen ni puñetera idea de por dónde va a tirar Richard- Se agradece que sean sinceros. 8)
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE
STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A
LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
(http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/3200/goes22152010294f0mchn.jpg)
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Richard tiene buena convergencia y un anticiclón en altura que le está proporcionando un excelente outflow.
El shear está en descenso entre 5-10 kts y las aguas en 29 grados, por lo que tiene que intensificarse sí o sí. Ya veremos cuánto.
(http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/4323/imagek.gif)
(http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/217/wg8shry.gif)
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Richard sigue bastante errático. Ahora los del NHC dicen que ha reformado su centro un poco más al Este. En la nueva trayectoria ya no contemplan que alcanze la categoría de huracán :-X
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Pues a pesar de los datos bien comentados por Sanit, RICHARD se resiste a progresar ::) ::) Según el último informe, el 10, debido a la lucha del ciclón contra la cizalladura y el aire seco... Así, han rebajado las espectativas, dejando la intensidad máxima por debajo de la categoría de huracán, ya que el ciclón puede interactuar con tierra al aproximarse a Honduras.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 230856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A
40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DURING THAT
TIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE
INLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN
THAT DIRECTION.
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW
THESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS
COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.8N 83.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 84.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.6N 87.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 89.1W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.8N 91.6W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 93.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z 21.0N 94.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Adjunto la última imagen del visible:
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Pues ahora si que se está intensificando. Ya cuenta con 55 kts y el NHC comenta que está sufriendo una rápida intensificación ::) ::) ::)
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Pues ahora si que se está intensificando. Ya cuenta con 55 kts y el NHC comenta que está sufriendo una rápida intensificación ::) ::) ::)
Anda! :P :P :P
000
WTNT44 KNHC 231458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH
FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE
UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A
HURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS.
AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE
WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN
INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT
DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.9N 83.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.4N 86.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 88.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 89.6W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 18.5N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 94.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Nuestro amigo ya es huracán, y podría rozar la categoría 2 antes de tocar tierra por el sur de la Península del Yucatán...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 241448
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS
INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE
WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10. ASIDE FROM BEING
SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.9N 86.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Adjunto última imagen del visible:
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Hora local de Caracas 8:30 pm
Richard impacta tierra en Belice como CAT1, se desplaza justo a esta hora justo al sur de la ciudad de Belice y se espera salga mañana en la noche o martes en la mañana al golfo de Mexico.
RESUMEN DE LAS 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...17.2 NORTE 88.2 OESTE
CERCA DE 20 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE CIUDAD BELIZE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH...150 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...981 MILIBARAS...29.18 PULGADAS
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
------------------------------
A LA 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE HURACAN RICHARD ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.2 OESTE.
RICHARD SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17
KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE EL MOVIMIENTO GENERAL ESTA NOCHE CON UNA
DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION EL LUNES. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO SE MOVERA TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE
BELIZE ESTA NOCHE...Y SE MOVERA SOBRE EL SUR DE MEXICO EL LUNES O
LUNES POR LA NOCHE.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...
CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. RICHARD ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA
ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ANTICIPA QUE SE HABRA DE
DEBILITAR AL MOVERSE TIERRA ADENTRO.
última imagen visible vespertina del GOES antes de tocar tierra
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/imagen_000001-6.jpg)
Imagen infraroja actual
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1-15.jpg)
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RICHARD ha emergido a aguas del GOM, en la zona de la Bahía de Campeche, pero prácticamente como baja remanente, y no se espera reintensificación, ya que las condiciones atmosféricas son hostiles.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 260832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICHARD HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND
WHAT CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WITH THE CYCLONE IS WELL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...THIS
COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9. RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.4N 92.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 20.3N 93.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/0600Z 21.9N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN