Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 21, 2011, 16:12:40 pm
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Ya tiene 30% de probabilidades de desarrollo, además cuenta con mucho apoyo modelístico. Las trayectorias varían, desde golpear centroamerica, que cada vez es menos posible, hasta impactar las costas de la Península de Yucatán o Cuba. Los modelos ven un Huracán de este disturbio, así que habrá que prestar atención a la primera gran amenaza del Caribe evil ::)
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La mayoria de los modelos desarrolla a 96L, hay que estar atentos al desarrollo de este sistema. cmc lo manda a Cancun :o
(http://i52.tinypic.com/20f8d2r.jpg)
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no se forma ;D jajaja nahhhh no es cierto, como lo ven amigos?????? para donde se ira????? se ve muy bien en estos momentos
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No tiene mala pinta...............
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Hay valores bajos de cizalladura sobre el sistema, así que debería permitir el desarrollo. Cada vez se ve mejor, en un rato más el NHC actualizará su resumen tropical y sabremos que porcentaje tendrá. Yo vaticino un 50% evil
Edito:
No se ve la imagen, pero aquí dejo el link:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=96L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
:D1
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no se forma ;D jajaja nahhhh no es cierto, como lo ven amigos?????? para donde se ira????? se ve muy bien en estos momentos
Pues no se sabe a donde irá, parece ser que subiría a la altura de Jamaica, para después irse a Cuba como lo ve GFS o irse directito a la Península de Yucatán como lo ve CMC evil
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:-X :-X :-X :-X ::) ::) ::) ::) evil evil evil
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CENTERED
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
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Vaya, está subiendo como la espuma :P
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Ya era hora que se forme algo en el Caribe :)
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Ya es oficialmente depresión tropical...El nhc lo mete a la península de Yucatán como Tormenta tropical.
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 232033
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS ACQUIRED JUST
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...
BASED ON A FEW BELIEVABLE 27 TO 28 KT SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER BUT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
HOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 335/5. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY IN THE 3
TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE
HWRF...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.4N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.8N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.0N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.1N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 17.3N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 17.7N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 19.0N 88.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Se ve muy bien 18L, no debe tardar en ser RINA. En cuánto a las trayectorias, no me convence del todo esa trayectoria tan al sur. En estos momentos se mueve al NNO un poco rápido, aunque va a reducír su velocidad de desplazamiento evil
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como que le ponen mucho quiebre no? aver como evoluciona
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Habemus Rina !!
Oficialmente ya tenemos a la tormenta tropical Rina.
El sistema registra esta noche vientos máximos sostenidos de 65 km/hr y lleva una trayectoria hacia el noroeste avanzando a 13km/hr. Se ubica a unos 650 kilómetros al este de las costas de Quintana Ro.
El NHC ha elevado un poco más al norte su trayectoria.
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Habemus Rina !!
Oficialmente ya tenemos a la tormenta tropical Rina.
El sistema registra esta noche vientos máximos sostenidos de 65 km/hr y lleva una trayectoria hacia el noroeste avanzando a 13km/hr. Se ubica a unos 650 kilómetros al este de las costas de Quintana Ro.
El NHC ha elevado un poco más al norte su trayectoria.
También suben de forma considerable su pico de intensidad y ahora considera la posibilidad de que llegue a ser huracán...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 240243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 33-35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THESE
WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN GUSTS. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO HAD TO AVOID STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS... THEREFORE...
UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. SINCE THEN... HOWEVER...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...
WHICH IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STRONGER WINDS IN THAT
REGION AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING...AND THE MOST RECENT 2-HOUR AVERAGE IS T2.7/39
KT. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM RINA...THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON.
RINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF NEAR 30C FOR THE NEXT 72-96
HOURS. IN ADDITION...DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOME VERY HIGH UPPER-OCEAN CONTENT THAT
IS MORE THAN 10 TIMES THE VALUE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EVEN MORE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS RINA MOVES UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT AND VENTILATION
AVAILABLE FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING
FACTOR IS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CYCLONE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODEL...LGEM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 KT BASED ON RECON FIXES. THE
FORECAST TRACK DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT THE
GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM THE CURRENT POSITION HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTED. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN SATELLITE
AND UPPER-AIR DATA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTED FORECAST SCENARIO
CALLS FOR RINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF RINA...FORCING THE CYCLONE ON
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DAY 4. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW RINA TO TURN
NORTHWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS..AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...HWRF...AND ECMWF
MODEL TRACKS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THREATS FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS WHERE 8-15 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN DURING THE PAST 3 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 16.4N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.8N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.3N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.7N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.9N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 18.9N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 20.0N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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GFS ve una ruta bastante peligrosa merodeando la costa de Quintana Roo casi sin moverse, GFDL ve un Categoría 5 impactando Cancún con más de 140 kts :-X :-X :-X y NOGAPS sigue perdido me parece en cuanto al seguimiento tropical. Veremos como llegue porque la trayectoria apunta a Quintana Roo en estos momentos ::) ::) ::)
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Ya es Huracán. Me temo que parece ser que esta inmerso en un RI, mientras se dirige hacia mí, Cancún. Muchos bloggeros hablan de otro Wilma, pero esto es muy apresurado. Tendremos que seguír viendo a RINA, que parece que ya tiene ojo :-X :-X :-X
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WOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!! Vaya pedo que ha pegado RINA :</O :</O :</O :</O :</O :</O Ha saltado del boletín 4 con 40 KT al 5 ya con 65 KT :o :o :o :o :o :o
000
WTNT43 KNHC 241821
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS AROUND 65 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING RINA THE 6TH
HURRICANE OF SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK WAS
REQUIRED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1800Z 17.1N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 83.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.8N 84.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
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Cuidado con RINA, que puede alcanzar la categoría 3 :o
(http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/66/at201118modelintensity.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/155/at201118modelintensity.gif/)
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Hora local de Caracas 15:45pm
Rina con aire seco por el Norte, pero debe tener un buen soporte de humedad desde el Pacifico transportado por la Vaguada Monzónica :-\ :-\. Veremos como lidia con las condiciones que tiene al Norte:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/2-18.jpg)
Visible actual
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1-59.jpg)
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Según el último aviso, se trata de un categoría 2...
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
...RINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
Parece que podría convertirse en un major esta noche (madrugada en Spain)... y va derechito a la Ribera Maya/Playa del Carmen/Cancún/Cozumel...
(http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/456/huracanrinatrack.gif)
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I'm Baaaaackk!!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D hola a todos, he estado muy ocupada con trabajo, escuela y otras responsabilidades, pero se nos viene un huracan encima y este seguimiento no me lo puedo perder ;) ...
En el norte del estado estamos en Alerta Verde y en el Sur en Alerta amarilla, aqui entre los locales que nos toco vivir el Wilma hemos comparado mucho a Rina con este, la baja velocidad de traslacion, desviacion causada por un frente frio y obvio el Mes de Octubre. Muchos nuevos ya entraron en Panico y se fueron a hacer compras de panico desde ayer, los locales estamos esperando que sea mas seguro el impacto porque no queremos comer Atun por un mes :P . Aqui estaremos pendientes y con camaras lista, aunque ya me enoje porque todos los huracanes nos tocan de noche, a excepcion del Wilma que duro mucho pero lo fuerte fue en la noche.
A las 3:30 pm emitira un boletin el sistema estatal de proteccion civil, lo mas seguro es que ya nos cambien a Alerta Amarilla, ya les estare avisando.
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Saludos Lovegirl, esperamos tus vivencias con Rina, os paso una foto espectatular de Rina:
(http://tinyurl.com/3pzsdj5)
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Hora local de Caracas 21:15pm
Rina es un huracán CAT2, se observa muy compacto, de pequeño tamaño pero muy feroz, es posible sea un CAT3 esta misma noche. Sin embargo el ciclo ERC ha iniciado, lo que sugiere un período de fluctuaciones progresivo, entre la CAT2 y CAT3 respectivamente.
Infraroja actual:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a-13.jpg)
Se espera se acerque a Yucatán mañana en la noche para desplazarse paralelo a la Costa Este de la península. Veremos como se desarrolla mañana este potencialmente destructivo sistema.
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA
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Mm no creo que haya empezado un ciclo de remplazo de ojo, mas bien su aspecto actual es por el aire seco y la cizalladura que afecta al sistema. Sin embargo hace falta corroborar los datos evil Seguimos desde Cancún, a este sistema que es una gran amenaza a nuestras costas :-X
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En cualquier momento RINA puede convertirse en un "major", alcanzando la categoría 3...
000
WTNT33 KNHC 260607
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011
...RINA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS
969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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creen que aumente de categoria? el 3 esta garantizado que lo alcanze, pero de ahi comenzara a decrecer????? como lo ven amigos.
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Al parecer los modelos ya no ven que llegue a cat.3 Y lo ponen un poco más adentro de la península.. Más lluvias para mi Mérida :-X
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Pues ya es categoría 1 ahora
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Creen que logre recuperarse a categoría 2 antes de tocar la península ?
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Hora local de Caracas 21:15pm
Rina es un huracán CAT1 al Norte de las costas de Honduras y al Este de la Península de Yucatán.
Estructura de vientos:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1_000007.jpg)
Se observa como las ráfagas de vientos mas intensas se encuentran mayormente sobre áreas marítimas. Ahora la pérdida de fuerza podría estar asociada a un desfazaje de los sistemas nubosos convectivos principales con respecto al centro mínimo de baja presión (verticalidad), y se espera que la cizalladura se incremente notablemente por el NE a partir de las próximas 36h. En el siguiente mapa se observa valores altos de shear sobre cuba y la Florida, y laos modelos indican que se establecen hacia el SO rumbo al sistema:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/1_000008.jpg)
Ya el sistema muestra señales de ovalamiento ligero, sin embargo tiene aún potencial para permanecer como huracán durante 24 horas más pero la cercanía a tierra y la cizalladura en incremento podrían restarle mucha fuerza y es posible alcance la península solo como una tormenta Tropical:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/4-3.jpg)
Radar doppler actual de Belice muestra un sistema con espirales de lluvia muy concentrados en torno al vórtice:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/2-19.gif)
Sumario 7pm CDT:
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.3N 86.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
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Interesantísima esa animación de imágenes radar, en las que también aprecio ovalamientos y pérdidas de simetría en el ojo del ciclón. Sin embargo, el último boletín del CNH señala que RINA podría haberse reintensificado un poquito...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 270242
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED
OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS
DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH
JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI
IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY
THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA
APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.
THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR
YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 18.5N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.2N 86.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.4N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Pues ahora ya se ve muy mal. Baja más su intensidad a 75 mph y llegará a Cancún como Tormenta Tropical. Dará una vuelta para regresar al Caribe, aunque como Depresión Tropical :'(
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Hora local de Caracas 10:30am
Rina degradada a Tormenta Tropical :D1 :D1 ;D.
Esta noche montó algun reportillo
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Me esperaba mucho más de Rina... me ha decepcionado mucho.
Ayer que aún era huracán y se encontraba bastante lejos da la península estuvo todo el día nublado en Mérida, Yucatán y con uno que otro vientesito. Hoy que está mucho más cerca de la península, y es tormenta tropical, es un día muy soleado y sin indicio de lluvias. Hoy me esperaba un día con mucha lluvia pero no fue así.
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Pues en Cancún hay fuertes rachas de viento. En la zona hotelera esta muy fuerte el viento y se aprecian buenos relampagos que se van acercando poco a poco. Cabe señalar que el centro de RINA aún no toca tierra ::)
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Muchos saludos a todos desde Cancun:
Pues les informo que ahora son casi las dos de la mañana y la lluvia es abundane y el viento aun sigue fuerte.
El dia de hoy fue un caos vial en la zona hotelera. Se bajaron todos los señalamientos de trafico y aun habian muchas personas sacanco embarcaciones del agua.
Los vientos aunque son fuertes, solo son reflejo de una tormenta tropical.
Mucha suerte a todos !!!! :D1
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 280546
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011
...CENTER OF RINA PASSING JUST WEST OF CANCUN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 87.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ALLEN TO SAN FELIPE
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RINA SHOULD THEN
BEGIN A SOUTHWARD DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER WATER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND RINA
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN COZUMEL
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
TODAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST....
PRIMARILY ON COZUMEL AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
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Vista desde el avión de reconocimiento sobrevolando Rina:
http://twitpic.com/76nsj1/full
(http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/1199/avionrina.jpg)
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Imagen tomada el pasado 26 de octubre por el radar de precipitación TRMM, que nos muestra la intensidad de lluvia de Rina cuando se encontraba al Este del Cabo Belice:
(http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/323/rina1f.jpg)
Esta otra, en el mismo momento, nos muestra una imagen tridimensional de las torres calor del huracán (categoría 2 en ese momento):
(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/370/rina2d.jpg)