000WTNT43 KNHC 250302TCDAT3HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1820121100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012CUBAN RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANEHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZEDTHIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 954 MB...AND A 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE HAS DEVELOPED. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACEESTIMATES OF 75-80 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ONA BLEND OF THESE DATA...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. IT SHOULDBE NOTED THAT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFBAND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...AREAT OR ABOVE 100 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SANDY IS LIKELY TOSTRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/11. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND AMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICALMODELS FORECAST SANDY TO MOVE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THELOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SOFOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. FROM 48-96 HR...ADEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULDSTEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCEBECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNINGTHE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING ANORTHEASTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTEDEASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PARTDUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THUS...THENEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THISTIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS.GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOWCALLS FOR SANDY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA. WHENTHE CENTER EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITHAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER-LEVELDIVERGENCE AND BAROCLINIC ENERGY. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SANDY TOSTAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WINDFIELD WILL SPREAD OUT AND THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE SOME OF ITSTROPICAL CHARACTER IN THE PROCESS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECASTIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HR. THE FORECAST WILLSTILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGHTHIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 25/0300Z 19.4N 76.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.6N 76.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 24.4N 76.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 26.3N 76.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 30.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 33.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH120H 30/0000Z 37.0N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL$$FORECASTER BEVEN
000WTNT43 KNHC 260311TCDAT3HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1820121100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDYHAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDSAT 8000 FT WERE 90 KT...AND DROPSONDES IN WHAT REMAINED OF THEEYEWALL SUGGESTED 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HADRISEN TO 968 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ISREDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. SURFACEOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TOEXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.SANDY HAS BEGUN ITS ANTICIPATED LEFT TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION ISNOW 335/11. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT INTERACTSWITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AFTERTHAT...A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITEDSTATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER 72 HR...SANDY SHOULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVINGTHROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONEBACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...A TRACK THAT SHOULD BRING THE CENTERONSHORE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANTCHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECASTTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MOREWESTWARD POSITION AT THE 24 HOUR POINT THAT LIES BETWEEN THE GFSAND ECMWF MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OTHERWISE...THE TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONGUPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER AND NEAR SANDY...WHICH IS HELPING TOKEEP THE STORM GOING DESPITE 35 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERESULT OF THIS INTERACTION IS THAT SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPANDIN SIZE...WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE CENTRAL WINDS. LATER INTHE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ISEXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE STARTSEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS EARLYAS 96 HR...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR IT WILL HAVE PROCEEDEDBEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL. THUS...THE FORECAST CONTINUESTO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE POST-TROPICAL IN 120 HR...WITH A VERYLOW CONFIDENCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THEPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION TO THE FIRST 36 HR DUETO THE OBSERVED WEAKENING THIS EVENING.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 26/0300Z 25.3N 76.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 34.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH120H 31/0000Z 40.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND POST-TROPICAL$$FORECASTER BEVEN
Sandy tiene potencial para ser una tormenta HISTÓRICA, algo que se recordará durante décadas en EEUU.Una auténtica tormenta perfecta, mayor que la de 1991, que puede originar una marea ciclónica jamás vista en la costa noreste con un área extensísima de vientos huracanados y fuertes nevadas en el interior.Atentos todos.PD: el huracán Hazel de 1954 es un buen referente de lo que puede ocurrirhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel
AccuWeather.com @breakingweatherNew York is the latest state to declare a state of emergency.