000
WTNT43 KNHC 222101
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR
35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM
IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM
WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STORM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES.  HOWEVER...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOON.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST.  THIS IS ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 12.5N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.6N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.9N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 16.4N  77.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 18.2N  77.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  26/1800Z 25.0N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 27.5N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH