00 GMT 05/27/08 13.7N 138.2E 30 Tropical Depression
06 GMT 05/27/08 14.1N 137.6E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/27/08 14.2N 137.5E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/27/08 14.5N 137.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/28/08 14.5N 137.5E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/28/08 15.4N 137.1E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/28/08 15.6N 136.9E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/28/08 15.8N 136.9E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 05/28/08 16.0N 136.4E 90 Category 1
18 GMT 05/29/08 16.0N 136.4E 90 Category 1
00 GMT 05/29/08 16.0N 136.3E 110 Category 2Por cierto, parece que tiene un pinhole eye............
Parte del JTWC:
WDPN31 PGTW
290300MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI) HAs RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. A SMALL
AND IRREGULAR EYE HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 1200Z AS WELL,
COINCIDING WITH A MODERATE INCREASE IN INTENSITY. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THUS, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED THE PRIMARY EXHAUST
CHANNEL.
B. THE CURRENT POSITION OF TY 06W IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH POSITION CONFIDENCE. A
282019Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A 10 NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TY 06W
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
EAST HAS TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENED AND BUILT IN TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH HAS SINCE ADVANCED DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY PREVENTING A MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE STORM. TY 06W LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED EQUATORWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS MARGINAL YET SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE HIGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INTENSITY TREND REFLECTED THROUGH TAU 48 AS A RESULT OF
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT HAD OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD IN THE EARLY
FORECAST TAUS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ANOTHER TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION,
THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW TY 06W TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY AT TAU 36 AND 48 OF 110 KNOTS. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LOWERED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL MITIGATE FURTHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND WILL ULTIMATELY
BEGIN THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 72.
C. TY 06W WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72 WITH
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER AND
DRIER MID-LATITUDE AIR INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION.
THIS WILL INDUCE BOTH STEADY WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINNING AT TAU 72 AND ENDING BY TAU 120.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
Según esto, no se esperaban la intensificaicón que ha sufrido el ciclón, por lo que han tenido que revisar al alza las previsiones de pico de intensidad. A ver si consigue alcanzar la categoría 5 evil
:<<O
Tema: Tifón NAKRI 06W - categoría 4 - (Pacifico Oeste) (Leído 4111 veces)