Muy buen aspecto, aunque veremos como se comporta, porque ultimamente los sistemas salidos de esa zona se esfuman rapidamente
Parece que a este ciclón le ha dado por llevarte la contraria, Angetotti
ZCZC 591
WTIO30 FMEE 191245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNIONTROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20082009
1.A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE)2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1200 UTC :
21.8S / 41.0E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
985 HPA5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :
50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 19.9S/42.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.48H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 21.8S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.6S/47.6E OVERLAND.
72H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND CAN SUPPORT
4.0
-, BUT FINAL T NUMBER IS RESTRICTED TO 3.5+ DUE TO DVORAK RULES
CONSTRAINTS.
THE SYSTEM SHOWS A VERY SMALL INNER CORE, BUT A HINT OF AN EYE IS
EXHIBITED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU 0641Z)
FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE
UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A
STRENGTHENING
POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
SO FANELE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE 36 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE
WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=
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