Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 19, 2013, 13:11:03 pm
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Están a una distancia entre sí suficiente para que haya interacción...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/42291/fujiw1_vjo3.jpg)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/94257/fujiw2_fms2.jpg)
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Pacifico Central, 3 ciclones tropicales en interaccion, Efecto Fujiwara (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/3491-pacifico-central-3-ciclones-tropicales-en-interaccion-efecto-fujiwara.html)
Después de analizar a fondo toda la zona, descubierto un tercer ciclón ya en declive y casi absorbido por PEWA... Qué pasada...
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GFDL parece contemplar la absorción de PEWA por UNALA, dando como resultado un poderoso tifón en los próximos días ::) :O* :O*
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Último boletín sobre UNALA:
686
WTPA45 PHFO 190851
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM UNALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022013
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 18 2013
UNALA HAD A VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR ITS
NORTHERN QUADRANT...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE DYING AT BULLETIN TIME.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AT THIS HOUR AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
RAPIDLY WESTWARD UNDER THE HOSTILE OUTFLOW FROM RECENTLY UPGRADED
TYPHOON PEWA...CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 177.9E AT 19/0600Z ACCORDING TO
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER /JTWC/. THE INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS OBVIOUSLY TAKING A TOLL ON UNALA...SINCE ALL OF THE
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES INDICATED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ONLY 2.0.
HOWEVER...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CENTER IS LIKELY MAINTAINING WINDS OF AT LEAST 35 KT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM
EARLIER TODAY SHOWED THIS TYPE OF WIND FIELD...SO WE DO NOT BELIEVE
THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...
WE WILL MAINTAIN UNALA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THE INITIAL
PERIOD IN THIS FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FOR UNALA IS
ALL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT
19/0500Z. IN COORDINATION WITH THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT
JTWC...IT WAS DECIDED THAT A FUJIWARA INTERACTION BETWEEN TYPHOON
PEWA AND UNALA WILL LIKELY STEER UNALA MORE WESTWARD AT AN
ACCELERATED SPEED. ALSO...IN COORDINATION WITH JTWC...WE
ANTICIPATED THE INTERACTION BETWEEN UNALA AND THE DOMINANT OUTFLOW
FROM PEWA SHOULD CAUSE UNALA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PEWA HAS ALREADY CROSSED THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE AS OF THIS
BULLETIN TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE
ISSUED BY RSMC TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN
GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 17.5N 179.6E 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 17.7N 177.1E 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
Y el de PEWA, interesante por incierto ;D
058
WTPA44 PHFO 180230
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 17 2013
AFTER A BURST OF ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY...THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND PEWA HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE RAGGED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME CONSTRICTED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE STORM. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONCE AGAIN
3.5 ACROSS THE BOARD...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/11. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS PEWA
REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME MIXED SIGNALS THAT MAKE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST QUITE CHALLENGING. THE CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT PEWA IS
STARTING TO FEEL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH NEAR 20N 174E. THERE IS PROBABLY ALSO SOME
INTERACTION OCCURING WITH THE DISTURBANCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ENTERING A VAST
AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...REACHING 29.5C ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...THE UPPER LOW WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND PULL NORTHWESTWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO
RELIEVE THE SYSTEM FROM INCREASING SHEAR. THUS...ANY INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD BE GRADUAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT HALTS. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME IN THE LONGER RANGE
IF PEWA CAN OVERCOME THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FAR ENOUGH FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE
SYSTEM...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND NAVGEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
STUBBORN WITH THE UPPER LOW IN PEWA/S PATH...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
PEWA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE BY 06Z...
AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY THE RSMC
TOKYO. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE GUAM AND DOD WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 11.8N 179.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.8N 178.8E 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 13.9N 176.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 15.2N 174.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.5N 172.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.3N 168.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.9N 163.8E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 24.9N 159.3E 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Aquí tenemos a la amalgama de ciclones... ;D ;D ;D ;D Aunque UNALA es prácticamente indistinguible.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/57305/2013CP03_4KMIRIMG_201308192032_lsl3.GIF)
A la izquierda, PEWA, degradada a TT; a la derecha del todo, la recién ascendida DT 03C, para mí una TT de pleno derecho ::) Y ya embebida en la circulación de PEWA, UNALA.
Aquí tenemos a la 03C:
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/16384/2013CP03_1KMSRVIS_201308192001_tlo1.GIF)
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Qué chulada......... !!! La animación del floater en modo VIS que hay sobre PEWA, ha captado el pequeño remolino remanente de UNALA, orbitando ciclónicamente alrededor de PEWA :DDD BESTIAL !!
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Pero si observamos de forma minuciosa, como PEWA también se está viendo afectado por la cizalladura, con fases intermintentes de reforzamiento - debilitamiento, también intenta orbitar, formándose un eje común a ambos vórtices ciclónicos :o :o :o :o 8) 8) 8) 8) ;D ;D ;D ;D Es la leche ver todo en movimiento!
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/10531/unalaloop_gll4.gif)