000WTPZ43 KNHC 211439TCDEP3HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 8NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTERORGANIZED. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BANDWRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THATA RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLYLOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ACONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITEAPPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIALINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWTHE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYERSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERNGULF OF MEXICO. IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHINGTHE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGEWHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THEMID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THESHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACKTOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENTAGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE INTHE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICALDEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGERCYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIALTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS ANDTHEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORELATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THEBASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLYLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ORFLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJORHURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO. SLOW WEAKENING SHOULDCOMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITSPATH. A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...ISEXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26CAND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECASTIS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT.SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THELATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN INSATELLITE ERA.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH$$FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000WTPZ43 KNHC 220844TCDEP3HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011100 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011KENNETH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. THE EYE HAS WARMED ANDBECOME MORE DISTINCT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. INADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSOLIDATED AND GAINEDSYMMETRY...AND KENNETH NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A COMPACT MATUREHURRICANE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC WERE 90 KT AND 102 KTFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...RECENT ADT VALUES AND ASPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB REVEAL HIGHER ESTIMATES.THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 110 KT...AND THATCOULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THIS MAKES KENNETH A MAJOR HURRICANE...THELATEST ONE TO HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THESATELLITE ERA.SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS KENNETH REMAINSIN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF ABOUT27-28C. HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BEYOND24 HOURS AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECASTTRACK...FALLING BELOW 26.5C IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND TO NEAR 25C INABOUT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEARIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENINGTREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCEFOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AS NONE OF THE MODELS ANTICIPATED THEOBSERVED RATE OF INTENSIFICATION...AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THESHIPS/LGEM MODELS.KENNETH IS MOVING DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AMID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON AWESTWARD TRACK FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THECYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A DEEP-LAYERTROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERNMEXICO. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS DUE TOTHE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETHAND THE EXPECTED DECREASING DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ABOUTMIDWAY BETWEEN THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 22/0900Z 13.0N 112.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.0N 114.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.2N 116.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.6N 117.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 119.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 15.1N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 15.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH120H 27/0600Z 16.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000WTPZ43 KNHC 221455TCDEP3HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH HAS RAPIDLYINTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. A SYMMETRIC RING OFEYEWALL -70 TO -75C CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAS DEVELOPED AROUND ACLOUD-FREE EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVEINCREASED TO T6.5 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT. LITTLECHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS KENNETHHAS MORE THAN LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. AFTERWARD...WEAKENING ISEXPECTED...POSSIBLY FASTER THAN FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HRPERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACETEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHCINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIABLE INTENSITYCONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LEFT OF DUE WEST...265/11.KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICALRIDGE TO THE NORTH. A SERIES OF MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULDERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURNTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 2 DAYS. NEAR DAY 4...THE RIDGE ISEXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS CHANGEIN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN BACKTOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUSADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASISON THE HWRF.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 22/1500Z 12.7N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 117.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.1N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 15.5N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH120H 27/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
Ya se está debilitando, pero deja unas imágenes impresionantes :</O :</O :</O :</O :</O Por ejemplo, esta a continuación, captada por el GOES 11, ayer a las 15 UTC