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Autor Tema: Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017  (Leído 5813 veces)

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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #15 en: Septiembre 25, 2017, 20:14:21 pm »
Los dos huracanes en el #Atlántico a la vista del #GOES16 en #Cat1
#HuracanLee




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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #16 en: Septiembre 25, 2017, 23:54:42 pm »
Durante la tarde LEE ha perdido el ojo. Y el caso es que el modelo HWRF preveía esto en su salida de las 00 UTC de hoy... y lo que también prevé es que va a volver a recuperarlo en las próximas horas, antes de empezar a interaccionar con MARIA en su cambio hacia los westerlies... 8)

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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #17 en: Septiembre 26, 2017, 11:24:36 am »
Durante la tarde LEE ha perdido el ojo. Y el caso es que el modelo HWRF preveía esto en su salida de las 00 UTC de hoy... y lo que también prevé es que va a volver a recuperarlo en las próximas horas, antes de empezar a interaccionar con MARIA en su cambio hacia los westerlies... 8)

El modelo la vuelve a clavar... LEE recuperó intensidad y su ojo, que ahora es bastante más grande. Definitivamente, me encanta HWRF para trabajar con ciclones tropicales 8)



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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized this
evening.  The eye has cleared out and has warmed to nearly 10
degrees Celsius, and the eye wall cloud tops have cooled to
-63 degrees Celsius.  The initial intensity is increased modestly to
85 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak
T-numbers.  It is worth noting that the ADT adjusted raw T-number
yields an estimated intensity of 97 kt based on an eye scene-type.

The previously noted southeasterly shear undercutting the diffluent
flow aloft has certainly diminished and should remain low for the
next 48 hours or so.  During this initial period, Lee could get a
little stronger as indicated in the HWRF hurricane model and the
Decay-SHIPS.  Afterward, increasing vertical shear, primarily due to
the outflow generated by Maria, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should induce a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone
moves into a high latitude baroclinic zone and ultimately becomes an
extratropical cyclone in 4 days.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of 6 hours ago, and follows an average of the
IVCN and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/9 kt.  The
cyclone is expected to continue moving within the easterly mid-level
steering flow, produced by a relatively narrow mid-tropospheric
ridge situated to the north, during the next 24 hours.  Afterward,
a combination of a broad mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving
out of the eastern Canadian Provinces and a subtropical ridge
building east of Lee should steer the hurricane gradually
northwestward and northward.  On day 3 and beyond,  Lee is forecast
to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in a deep-layer
high latitude southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementioned
shortwave trough.  Global models and the Cyclone Phase Evolution
analysis/forecast product show Lee become a extratropical
cyclone no later than day 4.  The NHC forecast track is a little
south of the previous one through 48 hours, but similar
thereafter, and is based on the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 30.0N  52.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 29.9N  53.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 30.2N  55.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 30.9N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 32.2N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 36.9N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 44.5N  40.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z 50.9N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 2, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #18 en: Septiembre 26, 2017, 18:59:09 pm »


LEE sigue intensificándose, como un huracán muy pequeño... 90 KT que le aúpa a la categoría 2 en la escala de Saffir Simpson.

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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images
.  Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 ktFurther strengthening is possible for the next day
or so
while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear.  Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so
.  The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease.  The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt.  The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow.  There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread.  The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 29.9N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 30.0N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 30.6N  56.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 31.7N  56.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 33.3N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 46.0N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
« Última modificación: Septiembre 26, 2017, 19:02:38 pm por Gale »

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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 2, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #19 en: Septiembre 27, 2017, 14:29:53 pm »
LEE está justo por debajo del umbral de gran huracán de categoría 3... Además, y tal y como preveía el modelo HWRF han ocurrido cambios en el ciclón que le han llevado a que su ojo doble (al menos) su tamaño. Parece que ha habido un Ciclo de Reemplazamiento del Ojo.



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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lee has been
undergoing some cloud structural changes during the past several
hours.  The eye has nearly doubled in size to 30 miles in
diameter, the central pressure indicated in the CIMSS Objective
Dvorak technique has increased a few millibars, and an earlier 2147
UTC WindSAT overpass revealed a developing outer ring surrounding
the partially opened inner core. These aforementioned cloud pattern
alterations arguably point to an undergoing eyewall replacement
cycle, and the possibility of intensification in the short term.
The initial intensity of 95 kt remains above the subjective
T-numbers, and is close to the CIMSS ADT estimated intensity.  The
official intensity forecast reflects the possibility of Lee becoming
a major hurricane later today before a weakening trend commences by
early Wednesday.  The global models and the FSU Cyclone Phase
Evolution product agree that Lee will maintain tropical
characteristics through day 3.  Afterward, the guidance shows the
cyclone quickly absorbed by an existing larger baroclinic
system.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8
kt.  Lee should turn gradually northwestward later today, and
generally northward on Thursday as the cyclone is steered by the
southwestern peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge over the
east-central Atlantic.  Through the remaining portion of the
forecast, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward within the
strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow and ultimately dissipate in
72 hours.  The model guidance suite continues to trend toward the
west through the 36-hour period, and the official forecast follows
suit.  Beyond that time frame, the forecast is a little faster than
the previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected
Consensus technique model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 30.2N  56.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 30.8N  57.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 32.1N  57.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 34.5N  56.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 37.8N  53.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 46.3N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
« Última modificación: Septiembre 27, 2017, 14:42:13 pm por Gale »

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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #20 en: Septiembre 27, 2017, 19:32:55 pm »
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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

After an eyewall replacement overnight, satellite images indicate
that a larger clear eye has formed, with the coldest cloud-top
temperatures seen to date observed with the cyclone.
  While
subjective Dvorak estimates have been fluctuating between 90-102 kt,
the latest objective estimate is 102 kt, and a 1050 UTC AMSU
estimate from CIMSS is 104 kt.  A blend of these data gives an
initial wind speed of 100 kt, making Lee the 5th major hurricane of
the 2017 Atlantic season
.  A gradual decrease in water temperatures
should start a weakening trend within 12-24 hours, with a faster
weakening forecast on Thursday and Friday as Lee enters a high-shear
environment.  Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and
the latest forecast is very close to the previous one.

Lee has turned northwestward, or 315/6.  The hurricane should turn
to the north on Thursday and northeast by Friday while it moves
around the subtropical ridge.  Lee is expected to move quite quickly
to the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it accelerates in
mid-latitude flow.  No significant changes were made to the previous
track, and the new forecast lies between the ECMWF and the HFIP
corrected-consensus model.  Around day 3, the cyclone should be
close to a cold front, but most of the models still show it separate
from that feature.  By day 4, all of the guidance have the system
decaying into a trough, and that is the solution provided below.

An ASCAT pass from this morning indicated that Lee has grown in
size, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified to
reflect that change.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 30.6N  56.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 31.4N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 33.0N  57.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 35.5N  55.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 46.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #21 en: Septiembre 27, 2017, 19:40:33 pm »
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NHC Atlantic Ops‏Cuenta verificada @NHC_Atlantic  3 hHace 3 horas
 #Lee becomes the 5th major #hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic season but is no threat to land. Full advisory: http://hurricanes.gov



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Philip Klotzbach‏Cuenta verificada
@philklotzbach
#Lee is now a major hurricane with max winds of 115 mph - the 7th Atlantic hurricane season on record with 5 Cat. 3+ hurricanes by Sep 27.

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Tyler Stanfield‏ @StanfieldTyler  6 hHace 6 horas
Epic morning visible imagery from #GOES16 of near-Major Hurricane #Lee. Eyewall replacement has given way to a large 30 mile wide eye!



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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #22 en: Septiembre 27, 2017, 20:21:39 pm »
Imagen del Modis del #Terra del #HuracanLee en #Cat3 y vientos de 185 Km/h
Ampliación sobre su ojo




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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #23 en: Septiembre 28, 2017, 14:44:39 pm »
Parece LEE está comenzando a sentir los efectos de la cizalladura y el aire seco... Poco a poco se va viendo afectado por los westerlies...


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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #24 en: Septiembre 29, 2017, 08:22:56 am »


LEE está empezando a sucumbir a condiciones rápidamente más hostiles al ir quedando embebido en los westerlies... Aguas más frescas, aire seco y cizalladura creciente. Durará poco como ciclón tropical aunque todavía es huracán...

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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

Due to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on the
northern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation center
has become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of the
cloud canopy.  A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of
70 kt.  Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear and
decreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during the
next 36 hours.  Afterward, the global models indicate that the
system will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system
over the
northern Atlantic.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEM
models.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.
The decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating toward
the northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flow
until dissipation occurs in 48 hours.  The NHC forecast follows the
TVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basically
an update of the previous track forecast.

Lee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTC
ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 36.3N  54.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 39.1N  51.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 43.2N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 47.6N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
« Última modificación: Septiembre 29, 2017, 08:34:49 am por Gale »

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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #25 en: Septiembre 29, 2017, 11:21:47 am »
Los restos de LEE van a verse incorporados en los westerlies muy pronto, y llegarán a Irlanda provocando un temporal de vientos y lluvia...


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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #26 en: Septiembre 29, 2017, 21:32:04 pm »
Previsión para el #Atlántico en las próximas 72 horas en modelo #GFS de los remanentes del #Lee y #Maria


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Re:Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #27 en: Septiembre 30, 2017, 11:37:58 am »
LEE ha sido declarado Post-tropical... y a penas queda nada de él. Solo una pequeña bolsa de humedad y un máximo de vientos. Llegarán sus restos difuminados a Irlanda al final del día...

 



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