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UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 18 SEP 2017 Time : 174500 UTC Lat : 14:47:05 N Lon : 60:23:49 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.8 / 974.1mb/ 84.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.7 5.0 6.3 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -41.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C Scene Type : EYE
CitarUW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 18 SEP 2017 Time : 174500 UTC Lat : 14:47:05 N Lon : 60:23:49 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.8 / 974.1mb/ 84.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.7 5.0 6.3 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -41.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C Scene Type : EYE
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 18 SEP 2017 Time : 184500 UTC Lat : 14:55:40 N Lon : 60:25:01 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.2 / 966.3mb/ 94.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.2 6.1 6.6 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km Center Temp : -11.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 18 SEP 2017 Time : 194500 UTC Lat : 15:04:00 N Lon : 60:30:41 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.5 / 960.4mb/102.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.5 6.0 6.9 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km Center Temp : +1.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
000WTNT45 KNHC 182048TCDAT5Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports froman Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data fromMartinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, andthis featured has recently become better defined in visible andinfrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported anintensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are thatrapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensityis increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft isschedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctlypossible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed amotion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motionmay be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to thenorth of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestwardfor the next three days, with the center crossing the LeewardIslands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expectedto be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to nearthe Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near PuertoRico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, thehurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest andnorth-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The trackguidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecasttrack is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little tothe south of the various consensus models.Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additionalrapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. Theintensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of theguidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 ktin about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reachcategory 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interactionand less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause someweakening. On top of these general trends, there is also thepossibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that wouldaffect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain anextremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small areanear the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii willnot expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if aneyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds couldexpand to an area larger than forecast.If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.KEY MESSAGES:1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the Britishand U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricaneduring the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effectfor many of these islands.2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerousmajor hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for thatisland.3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied bylarge and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfallare expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico andthe U.S. and British Virgin Islands.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH$$Forecaster Beven