Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 14NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1520171100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicatethat Maria regained category 5 status shortly after the lastadvisory, and that it is currently maintaining an intensity near 140kt with a central pressure near 927 mb. The aircraft data suggestsan outer wind maximum that could be the start of an eyewallreplacement cycle, but this feature does not yet have a goodsignature in radar data or microwave imagery.The eye of Maria has been wobbling quite a bit, but a smootherlong-term motion is 300/9. There is little change to the trackforecast reasoning or the forecast track since the previousadvisory. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic isexpected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and onthis track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near orover the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After thattime, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken,partially due to the influence of the large circulation of HurricaneJose off the U.S. east coast. This pattern should cause Maria toturn northwestward and then north-northwestward by days 4-5. Thetrack guidance is tightly clustered through 72 h and fairly wellclustered at 120 h, and the new track is to the left of center ofthe cluster mainly between the GFS and ECMWF models.Maria should remain in a generally favorable environment through 48h, and based on this and the latest guidance the new intensityforecast keeps Maria at 135-140 kt up to the time of landfall inPuerto Rico. After crossing Puerto Rico, the upper-level winds areexpected to become less favorable, and the intensity forecast showsa slow weakening that follows the upper edge of the guidance. Acomplication to the intensity forecast is that there will likely befluctuations caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed ontop of the general trends shown in the official forecast.KEY MESSAGES:1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islandstoday and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or overPuerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyonein these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoidlife-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountainsand on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 63.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.8N 67.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 19.6N 68.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH120H 24/1200Z 27.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH$$Forecaster BevenNNNN
Eric FisherCuenta verificada @ericfisher 4 minHace 4 minutos Buoy near the center of #Maria picking up on some strong winds and sharp pressure fall.
Ian LivingstonCuenta verificada @islivingston 17 minHace 17 minutos Antilles 'situation report' ver1. Labels in red have (so far) taken biggest hit from recent hurricanes. #maria #irma
Ryan MaueCuenta verificada @RyanMaue 7 minHace 7 minutos After weakening slightly, Category 5 Hurricane #Maria has again reached T-7.0 based on objective satellite intensity estimates.Eye > +12°C
CitarRyan MaueCuenta verificada @RyanMaue 7 minHace 7 minutos After weakening slightly, Category 5 Hurricane #Maria has again reached T-7.0 based on objective satellite intensity estimates.Eye > +12°C
Alex LamersCuenta verificada @AlexJLamers 6 minHace 6 minutos 2:15 PM - NHC confirms the lowest pressure and highest maximum winds we've seen yet with #Maria. Less than 24hr to PR and USVI.
Michael VentriceCuenta verificada @MJVentrice 26 minHace 26 minutos Hurricane Hunters have just found flight level winds of 155kt, or ~180mph in the N-NE eyewall. Expecting an intensity bump up in NHC update
USA TODAY WeatherCuenta verificada @usatodayweather 1 hHace 1 hora Infamous @NOAA photo from the only Category 5 hurricane to ever hit Puerto Rico, back on September 13, 1928.
Saludos desde Puerto Rico. Los sigo leyendo. Buenas tardes.
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 19 SEP 2017 Time : 184500 UTC Lat : 16:37:37 N Lon : 63:40:56 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 930.3mb/134.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.8 7.0 7.0 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION