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Autor Tema: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011  (Leído 2586 veces)

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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #15 en: Julio 30, 2011, 22:43:33 pm »
Tenemos a la 95 E con el 40% ya  8)

Citar
1. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #16 en: Agosto 02, 2011, 13:37:08 pm »
NHC tiene en observación otra perturbación, aún no ha sido nombrada como INVEST



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #17 en: Agosto 03, 2011, 13:07:12 pm »
Tenemos a la 97E con el 70%  8)



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #18 en: Agosto 03, 2011, 13:08:26 pm »
INVEST 97E

25kts-1006mb



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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #19 en: Agosto 03, 2011, 14:17:28 pm »
Nada, que lo bajan al 60%  :P

1. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM LATER
TODAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #20 en: Agosto 03, 2011, 21:08:59 pm »
Parece que el sistema no termina de carburar y lo bajan al 50%

1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.  THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #21 en: Agosto 04, 2011, 12:53:42 pm »
Aunque la han bajado al 20%, JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical de la 97E

Citar
1. SHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS
A RESULT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.



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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #22 en: Agosto 11, 2011, 23:10:21 pm »
Algo por esta zona en seguimiento  8)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF EL
SALVADOR. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.   

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #23 en: Agosto 13, 2011, 16:43:53 pm »
INVEST 98E

25kts-1008mb



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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #24 en: Agosto 13, 2011, 16:45:11 pm »
Dos áreas en seguimiento. La del 30% corresponde a la 98E  8)



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1075 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #25 en: Agosto 13, 2011, 18:50:30 pm »
Lanzado aviso de formación tropical para la 98E  8)



El JTWC se sube al carro

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WTPN21 PHNC 131600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 121.8W TO 12.8N 129.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 122.3W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.

.. y es que está con el 70%

Citar
1. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
« Última modificación: Agosto 13, 2011, 18:52:09 pm por Eker »
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #26 en: Agosto 13, 2011, 23:05:00 pm »
Sube la 98E al 80%  ;)


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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #27 en: Agosto 15, 2011, 22:47:47 pm »
Nueva INVEST pegadita a la costa. Corresponde a la 99E con un 30%  8)

99E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.11.4N.94.1W



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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #28 en: Agosto 15, 2011, 22:49:10 pm »
Así está el pacífico ahora:

3 sistemas, el de color naranja corresponde a la 99E y la TD 06E. Nuevo sistema con un 10%



 8)
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Re: Seguimiento de INVESTs en la cuenca del Pacífico Noreste, temporada 2011
« Respuesta #29 en: Agosto 16, 2011, 12:34:51 pm »
Nueva INVEST  8)

INVEST 90E

20kts-1009mb



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