ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMHurricane Irma Discussion Number 46NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1120171100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017Latest observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters hadflight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds near 110 kt.Thus, given sampling considerations, the 115-kt intensity isretained for this advisory. Irma should maintain this intensityuntil the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then beginto weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of theFlorida peninsula. Increasing southwesterly shear associated withan upper-level trough should also cause weakening of the hurricaneduring the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irmamoves into the southeastern United States in 24-36 hours, and thecyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours or sooner. Theofficial intensity forecast is close to the simple and correctedconsensus models.The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hoursand the initial motion estimate is about 350/8 kt. Irma is embeddedwithin a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cycloneis expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forwardspeed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. Thiswill take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and thesoutheastern United States over the next couple of days. The trackguidance remains fairly tightly clustered with the ECMWF track alittle to the left and slower than the other models. The officialtrack forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWFsolution. This is just slightly east of the previous officialforecast.KEY MESSAGES:1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue inthe Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread intocentral and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparationsin central and northwestern Florida should be rushed to completion.2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge floodingalong much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys,where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat ofcatastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwestcoast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above groundlevel is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Floridaregardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irmaare also expected to spread northward through Georgia and intoportions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland floodingacross much of Florida and many other parts of the southeast UnitedStates. Rainfall occurring very quickly, at 2 to 4 inches per hour,will lead to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, andrivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next fivedays in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where averagerainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts areexpected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginningMonday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, westernSouth Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfallof 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable toflash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce averageamounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Alabama and Tennessee, whereisolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 81.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.6N 82.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 29.2N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 33.8N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 14/1200Z 38.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster PaschNNNN
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