Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Mayo 10, 2012, 15:33:26 pm
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Abro este seguimiento porque el GFS ya 've' algo prontito... a 5 días de que arranque la temporada 8) Además, a tan solo +84 horas...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8342/slp28_ecs8.png)
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NOTICIA EN PORTADA: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2647-arranca-la-temporada-de-huracanes-en-el-pacifico-noreste.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2647-arranca-la-temporada-de-huracanes-en-el-pacifico-noreste.html)
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La salida del GFS que comentaba para el caso de la cuenca del Atlántico, también 'se sale' pronosticando una tormenta tropical en el Pacífico, aproximándose a las costas de México... :-X Sería después del desarrollo de alguno de los dos INVEST activos en el área...
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Tenemos INVEST desde hace unos días por ahí
INVEST 90E
25kts-1009mb
(http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/2445/201205131315goes13vis1k.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/844/201205131315goes13vis1k.jpg/)
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Tenemos un bonito INVEST en el Pacífico Este que tiene una pinta muy buena, lo mismo que las condiciones ambientales que le acompañan... ::)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7245/invest090612_mka4.jpg)
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SHOWERS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 650
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Se corresponde a la 93E 8)
INVEST 93E
25kts-1007mb
(http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/782/201206101745goes13vis1k.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/88/201206101745goes13vis1k.jpg/)
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De la que por cierto se ha lanzado aviso de formación tropical
WTPN21 PHNC 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 105.7W TO 11.2N 112.4W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100830Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 106.7W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
El NHC con un 60%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...AND IT
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
¿Carlotta en camino? 8)