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Autor Tema: Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016  (Leído 4278 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Bien, parece que un avión cazahuracanes, que salió a investigar al INVEST93L ha encontrado suficiente organización (circulación cerrada en superficie y convección persistente) como para iniciar avisos sobre la DT03L 8)

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.

« Última modificación: Junio 06, 2016, 14:33:40 pm por Gale »

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Re:Depresion tropical 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #1 en: Junio 05, 2016, 16:58:27 pm »
Imagen visible actual... no hay rastro de vórtice en capas bajas. Quizás, tapado por la convección ??? ::)


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Re:Depresion tropical 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #2 en: Junio 05, 2016, 18:30:00 pm »
Bien, ya la tenemos aquí... además, el CNH pronostica un cierto fortalecimiento, alcanzando sin problemas la clasificación de tormenta tropical, que será COLIN, e incluso alcanzando un pico de 45 KT y 50 KT como post-tropical.

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning.  Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone.
  The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear.  NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon
.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida.  The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt.  The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours.  After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 21.9N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 24.0N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 26.9N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 29.6N  84.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 32.6N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 40.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  09/1200Z 46.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Re:Depresion tropical 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #3 en: Junio 05, 2016, 21:32:54 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 3:30pm

Veo el LLCC mas al Este de lo que sugiere el CNH, ya veremos que indican actualizaciones


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Re:Depresion tropical 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #4 en: Junio 06, 2016, 00:25:53 am »
Caracas 6:25pm HLV


TT Colin





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Re:Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #5 en: Junio 06, 2016, 14:40:23 pm »
El CNH pone de manifiesto la pobre organización de COLIN, aunque también una cierta complejidad de su estructura, al mostrar 2 centros de circulación en niveles bajos, y vientos intensos en uno de sus cuadrantes, donde la convección es más profunda y generalizada.

Citar
000
WTNT43 KNHC 060902
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Colin remains poorly organized this morning.  Surface observations
and data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
suggest that at least two small-scale circulation centers are
present, one near an intense burst of convection around 24.5N 85.5W
and the other well to the west-northwest near 25.5N 89W.  The low
confidence initial position splits the difference between these two
features.  The Air Force aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level
winds of 71 kt and estimated 60 kt surface winds on the SFMR
instrument.  However, these winds were measured in the
aforementioned convection, and it is unclear how representative they
are.
  There is sufficient data to justify increasing the initial
intensity to 45 kt.

The cyclone appears to be moving faster, with the initial motion
now 015/12.  The track forecast reasoning again has not changed from
the previous advisory.  Over the next day or so, Colin should move
north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a
deep-layer trough over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a
ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic.  After that time, the
cyclone will become embedded in strong southwesterly flow associated
with a large baroclinic low over the eastern United States.  The
track guidance has nudged northward since the previous advisory, and
the new forecast track, which lies near the consensus models, is
also nudged northward.

The poor organization and the presence of moderate vertical wind
shear suggest that significant strengthening is unlikely before
Colin makes landfall in Florida in less than 24 hours.  The global
models forecast winds of near 50 kt as Colin moves over the Atlantic
and begins extratropical transition, and the latter part of the
intensity forecast is based on this guidance.  The model guidance
forecasts that extratropical transition should be complete by about
72 hours.

It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system.  Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 25.2N  87.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 27.6N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 30.7N  81.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/1800Z 33.8N  76.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  08/0600Z 37.6N  67.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 45.0N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0600Z 50.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z 54.0N  29.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Re:Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #6 en: Junio 06, 2016, 17:23:29 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 11:20am

Colin desorganizada pero repartiendo lluvias en el O de Cuba y SE de EEUU:








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Re:Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #7 en: Junio 06, 2016, 19:07:55 pm »
Cazatormentas | Tempestad tropical #Colin, récord como tercera más temprana en junio http://www.cazatormentas.net/tempestad-tropical-colin-record-como-tercera-mas-temprana-en-junio/ #HUAT16

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Re:Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #8 en: Junio 06, 2016, 23:13:08 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 5:10pm

Colin totalmente cizallada



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Re:Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #9 en: Junio 07, 2016, 14:31:05 pm »
Tras el impresionante aspecto que mostraba anoche a su llegada a Florida, Colin cada vez ha parecido más cizallado y con poco aspecto de ciclón tropical, tal como comenta el CNH en su último parte.

Citar
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070859
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Surface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has
moved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic.  Overall, the
system does not look very tropical.
  However, a large area of
deep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the
center during the night.  Aircraft data and ship reports suggest
that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of
the center.

Colin has accelerated northeastward with the initial motion now
050/27.  The cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward for
the next 24-36 hours due as it is steered by a large deep-layer
trough over the eastern United States.  After that, the forward
speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a
couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic.  The
new forecast track is an update of the previous track, with a
northward nudge at 72-120 hours.

Baroclinic influences are expected to cause some strengthening
today even as Colin loses its tropical characteristics.  The
cyclone is expected to transition to a storm-force extratropical
low in about 36 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter.  The
forecast intensities and wind radii have been modified based on
input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.  In this
case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the
post-tropical cyclone.  The current warnings are expected to remain
in effect until it becomes clear that the center of Colin will not
get closer to the coast than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 31.6N  80.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 34.1N  75.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 37.8N  67.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/1800Z 42.0N  58.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0600Z 45.2N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0600Z 50.5N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0600Z 54.0N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0600Z 56.0N  28.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Re:Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #10 en: Junio 07, 2016, 14:32:46 pm »
A destacar este tuit:

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NWS Tallahassee ‏@NWSTallahassee  12 hHace 12 horas Tallahassee, FL Ver traducción
Amazing view of a convective burst east of TS #Colin's center, viewed from the roof of our building at sunset!



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Re:Tormenta tropical COLIN 03L, Mar Caribe - Golfo de Mexico, junio 2016
« Respuesta #11 en: Junio 07, 2016, 14:33:40 pm »
Y rachas de viento máximas dejadas ayer al paso de Colin:

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NWS Melbourne ‏@NWSMelbourne  14 hHace 14 horas Ver traducción
Mon | Some peak gusts in squalls and damage associated with Tropical Storm #Colin, through 6:30 pm. #flwx

 



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