10% de probabilidades durante las próximas 48h en el TWO del NHC.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tenemos ya el Invest 94E en el área que todos los modelos desarrollan.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306201336
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013062012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942013
EP, 94, 2013062012, , BEST, 0, 112N, 949W, 20, 0, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep942013.invest

El EPAC sigue candente. Suben las probabilidades al 20% y 50%.
GFS desarrolla ambas zonas, el resto sólo la del 50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. 

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

Si se materializan las previsiones, podríamos tener un bonito caso práctico de Efecto Fujiwara

Minutos para que sea catalogada como el tercer sistema este año del pacifico. 100% de probabilidad de formacion Cosme ya esta aqui

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM ON
SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

Tenemos a este invest muy proximo de convertise en otro nuevo sistema. El CNH le da un 90% de probabilidades de formacion

Enviado desde mi GT-S6500D usando Tapatalk 2

Vamos a recuperar este hilo, porque varios modelos intuyen la formación de un buen huracán que iría directo a California...

De momento, dos áreas de bajas presiones en seguimiento, una de ellas en nivel rojo, que sería la que dará lugar a este huracán...