Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Fox Cane en Abril 17, 2013, 22:31:24 pm
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El renovado CMC estrena sus nuevas previsiones a un máximo de +240 horas con un temprano ciclón.
Ningún otro modelo le sigue, lo cual hace que se empiece a repetir la historia de siempre con este modelo, pese a la actualización de este pasado invierno.
(http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/4080/gemmslppcpnepac32.png)
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CMC recula y ya no ve nada, a ver si la tendencia esta temporada va a ser la de ver fantasmas a largo plazo un día sí, uno no.
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CMC recula y ya no ve nada, a ver si la tendencia esta temporada va a ser la de ver fantasmas a largo plazo un día sí, uno no.
Pues si empezamos así, menuda castaña de modificaciones sobre el modelo... :-X
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Hora local de Caracas 5:30pm
Habemus INVEST90E ;D ;D
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/6-2.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/6-2.jpg.html)
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/7-1.gif) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/7-1.gif.html)
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 13 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 07N93W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
THE LOW HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF
SHEAR VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...AND CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
LOW IS WITHIN A BAROTROPICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUED GROWTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE
EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD PROPAGATING DISTURBANCE...IN THIS CASE A CARIBBEAN WAVE
THAT PROPAGATED INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN...AND IF WE WILL
SEE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THIS CASE...BUT IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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Pongo el ATCF.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305140052
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013051318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902013
EP, 90, 2013051218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 927W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013051300, , BEST, 0, 64N, 935W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013051306, , BEST, 0, 65N, 944W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013051312, , BEST, 0, 66N, 949W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013051318, , BEST, 0, 67N, 953W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013051400, , BEST, 0, 69N, 956W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0
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Buen bicho pinta el GFS a +264, coincide con CMC.
Plazos enormes.
(http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/1945/gfsfullpreswindepac71.png)
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Nivel rojo en el sistema del EPAC.
(http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/5391/twoepac.gif)
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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¡Hoy comienza la temporada oficialmente en el EPAC!
Recordemos la lista de nombres para 2013:
Alvin
Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Fil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko
Lorena
Manuel
Narda
Octave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia
Tico
Velma
Wallis
Xina
York
Zelda
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Tenemos el Invest 91E en el EPAC.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305221651
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013052212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912013
EP, 91, 2013052112, , BEST, 0, 99N, 960W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052118, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052200, , BEST, 0, 101N, 980W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052206, , BEST, 0, 102N, 990W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052212, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1000W, 15, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves (http://ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves) ... 013.invest
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/5391/twoepac.gif)
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Debido a que el GOES 13 está fuera de servicio por una grave avería, no hay buenas imágenes del Invest
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Hora local de Caracas 9:10pm
La INV91E ya se deja ver dentro del GOES-15, tiene buen aspecto bajo el infrarrojo:
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/1-130.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/1-130.jpg.html)
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/Image_000018-77.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/Image_000018-77.jpg.html)
EP, 91, 2013052212, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1000W, 20, 1009, DB,
EP, 91, 2013052218, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB,
EP, 91, 2013052300, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1018W, 20, 1009, DB,
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(http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/1217/goes08302013143tsoatj.jpg)
Sin cambios.
EP, 91, 2013052300, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1018W, 20, 1009, DB
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GFS --> huracán en el EPAC impactando en México la próxima semana
(http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/2584/gfsfullpreswindwatl50.png)
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Hora local de Caracas 8:15pm
En la visible la pobre INV91E y la muy probable INV92E al SO de Costa Rica
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/Image_000019-62.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/Image_000019-62.jpg.html)
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Arranque de temporada muy activo este año, verdad? :o :o :o Y eso que he leído pronósticos que la auguran con actividad por debajo de la media...
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Tres bajas, tres en fila...
(http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/4089/watllatest.gif)
A ver lo que ocurre cuando toda esa inestabilidad salte al Caribe (desplazamiento del MJO)
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(http://oi42.tinypic.com/25aqmgx.jpg)
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NICARAGUA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEMS...ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Invest 92E, corresponde a la zona amarilla situada más al Este, si evoluciona será un tanto a favor de GFS que como ya vimos hace días que intuye un huracán impactando en la costa pacífica de México
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305260621
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013052606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922013
EP, 92, 2013052606, , BEST, 0, 114N, 912W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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CMC +96h
GFS y NAVGEM lo secundan
(http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/8268/gemmslpwindwatl17.png)
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Hora local de Caracas 12:45pm
Asi lucen las INVEST de la EPAC para la hora
Manuel dicha estimación tiene que ver con la INVEST92E, la cual el Pacífico del Sur de Mexico debe vigilat sigilosamente, veremos:
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/Image_000021-26.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/Image_000021-26.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 8:50pm
La INVEST92E con 80% de probabilidad de CT. Sin embargo la cercanía a tierra le está restando organización, veremos:
EP, 92, 2013052800, , BEST, 0, 135N, 959W, 30, 1006, LO,
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/a-17.gif) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/a-17.gif.html)
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/b-16.gif) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/b-16.gif.html)
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EP, 92, 2013052712, , BEST, 0, 132N, 952W, 25, 1008, DB,
EP, 92, 2013052718, , BEST, 0, 134N, 956W, 30, 1007, LO,
EP, 92, 2013052800, , BEST, 0, 135N, 959W, 30, 1006, LO,
EP, 92, 2013052806, , BEST, 0, 134N, 957W, 30, 1005, LO,
La presión sigue bajando y sube a 90%
(http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/5391/twoepac.gif)
1. SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DECREASED EARLIER TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THEN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
COULD OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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Hora local de Caracas 12:20pm
La DT02E ( o Barbara) está a punto de caramelo a pesar de estar muy próxima a tierra ha ganado organización desde horas de la madrugada (mañana para vos). Anoche se veía mas desorganizada:
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/vis-animated.gif) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/vis-animated.gif.html)
PD: mirando el dispersómetro, no se muestra una circulación totalmente cerrada ??? ???
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/WMBas64.png) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/WMBas64.png.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 2:25pm
Habemus DT 02E
Favor abrir hilo ;D ;D
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ECMWF - ciclón tropical a 120h en el EPAC. Se ve, se siente, el MJO está presente (:O*)
(http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/8505/a6q.gif)
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OOOOOOOOHHHHH GFS +144h, sistema tropical binario, precioso, todos como locos con nuestro MJO desbocado.
(http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/6408/kz4.png)
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CMC no podía quedarse al margen de esta vorágine ciclónica. ¡Pedazo de huracán!
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013062000/gem_mslp_wind_epac_25.png)
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Incluso el patito feo NAVGEM, que en su estreno este año no está dando ni una, se desmelena y quiere un poco de marcha,
¡Aquí se cuece algo, no hay duda!
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013062012/navgem_mslp_wind_epac_25.png)
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Continúa el consenso modelístico en las salidas de las 00z
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10% de probabilidades durante las próximas 48h en el TWO del NHC.
(http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/581/6yzv.gif)
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 20 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Menudos mapas........ Con esas perspectivas, podemos tener un verdadero carrusel ciclónico... :o :o :o
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Tenemos ya el Invest 94E en el área que todos los modelos desarrollan.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306201336
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013062012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942013
EP, 94, 2013062012, , BEST, 0, 112N, 949W, 20, 0, DB
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep942013.invest
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Y en el TWO sube al 20% junto con otra área más al W que está al 10%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
(http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/3446/9ta.gif)
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El EPAC sigue candente. Suben las probabilidades al 20% y 50%.
GFS desarrolla ambas zonas, el resto sólo la del 50%
(http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/1301/6y1.gif)
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.
2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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Floater sobre el área del 50%, Invest 94E
(http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/4183/xuq2.jpg)
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(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7823/slp38_wdg8.png)
Si se materializan las previsiones, podríamos tener un bonito caso práctico de Efecto Fujiwara 8) ;D
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Hora local de Caracas 8pm
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zps35c29832.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zps35c29832.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 8:45pm
Les dejo el relevo para que reciban a la DT 03E ;D ;D
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000012_zps60883273.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000012_zps60883273.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000013_zps1e2881b7.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000013_zps1e2881b7.jpg.html)
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Observando los pronósticos de HWRF y GFDL, parece que la 94E absorbería a la 95E, dando como fruto un único ciclón alcanzando el grado de huracán...
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Minutos para que sea catalogada como el tercer sistema este año del pacifico. 100% de probabilidad de formacion ;D Cosme ya esta aqui ;)
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El Invest 95E ha sido desactivado. El doble sistema tropical pronosticado por GFS no se ha cumplido... :-\ aún así ha tenido buen ojo con Cosme, como todos en realidad.
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep952013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306241123
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
-
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
Tenemos a este invest muy proximo de convertise en otro nuevo sistema. El CNH le da un 90% de probabilidades de formacion :D
Enviado desde mi GT-S6500D usando Tapatalk 2
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El Tifón Rumbia anda al Sur del Mar de China...
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04E/imagery/rb-animated.gif)
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Vamos a recuperar este hilo, porque varios modelos intuyen la formación de un buen huracán que iría directo a California... ;)
De momento, dos áreas de bajas presiones en seguimiento, una de ellas en nivel rojo, que sería la que dará lugar a este huracán...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/78725/two_epac_vrf3.gif)