Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eker en Enero 20, 2010, 17:43:27 pm
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Antes, un poco de información ;)
Periodo de actividad:
1 de Noviembre - 30 de Abril
Agencias que lo monitorizan:
Agencia de Meteorología Australiana (Bureau) : (http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/)
Agencia de Meteorología y Geofísica, Jakarta: (http://maritim.bmg.go.id/cyclones/IDJ23200.html)
Otros enlaces:
Oeste de Australia: (www.fesa.wa.gov.au)
Estado del Norte - Australia (http://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/)
Estado de Queensland (http://www.emergency.qld.gov.au/)
Estado de Nueva Gales del Sur (http://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/)
Una vez se desarrollen y pasen a TD (depresión tropical) o mayor, se abrirá un tópic específico ;).
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INVEST 94S
15kts-1010mb
(http://i49.tinypic.com/4gfn7.jpg)
:O*
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INVEST 92P
25kts-1004mb
(http://i48.tinypic.com/23sj484.jpg)
:O*
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Bien, la INVEST 92P se llegó a desarrollar más y llegó a ciclón tropical categoría 1, tomando el nombre de "NEVILLE". Pero en las últimas horas, ha ido perdiendo fuelle debido a la fuerte cizalladura que ha soportado. Por el momento se mantiene como INVEST a la espera de que pueda reintesificarse ;)
(http://i50.tinypic.com/1fjnk1.gif)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/e0h0jt.jpg)
:O*
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Nuevas INVESTS ;)
INVEST 93P
15kts-1010mb
Se sitúa al NE de Australia, muy pegado al "cuerno" de Australia ;)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2lx9xjr.jpg)
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INVEST 94P
15kts-1010mb
(http://i49.tinypic.com/2u3y0s4.jpg)
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Aparece una INVEST al E de Australia
INVEST 99P
25kts-1004mb
Veremos hasta donde llega porque con las condiciones en las que se encuentra, me parece que poco va a durar. Zona de SST desfavorable y cizalladura prohibitiva de entre 50-60 kts
(http://i50.tinypic.com/o7ownc.jpg)
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Gran trabajo en el hemisferio sur, Eker. Aunque no posteo (porque no se me da bien hacer seguimientos de esa zona) te leo habitualmente. Felicidades. beer
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Muchísimas gracias Fox :D :D beer
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Aparece una INVEST justo al norte de Australia, justo casi en el cuerno de dicha isla
INVEST 91P
15kts-1010mb
(http://i43.tinypic.com/aepji8.jpg)
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Ese debe ser el bicho que veían todos los modelos (menos el NOGAPS que nunca se entera de nada) para este fin de semana, tiene buena pinta.
(http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3253/201003250836f17xcomposi.jpg)
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El JTWC ve alguna posibilidad de desarrollo
Actualizo datos de la INVEST 91P
15kts-1010mb
(http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5852/201003260830gms6xir1kmb.jpg)
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El JTWC le puso el ojo desde ayer y ya ha lanzado el aviso de formación tropical.
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 136.2E TO 16.0S 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
136.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
30kts-1000mb
(http://i40.tinypic.com/14wc1fa.jpg)
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Bureau le da esta trayectoria
(http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/5561/idd65001.gif)
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TT 22P - 91P ....ha tenido durante un tiempo 35kts
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Sunday 28 March 2010
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi and Numbulwar to Port McArthur.
At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 75 kilometres south southwest
of Nhulunbuy and 125 kilometres north of Alyangula and moving southwest at 12
kilometres per hour.
The low is currently located near the coast and is expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between and
MILINGIMBI AND NUMBULWAR, including GROOTE EYLANDT, today.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR, including
GROOTE EYLANDT, today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises in the
Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts during Sunday.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 136.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Sunday 28 March.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
(http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/589/ide00035201003272030.jpg) (http://img694.imageshack.us/i/ide00035201003272030.jpg/)
(http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3834/201022p.png) (http://img24.imageshack.us/i/201022p.png/)
(http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/5561/idd65001.gif) (http://img121.imageshack.us/i/idd65001.gif/)
(http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/2761/gifsby12hr01.gif) (http://img90.imageshack.us/i/gifsby12hr01.gif/)
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Nueva INVEST por el NNW de Australia
INVEST 98S
15kts-1010mb
(http://i43.tinypic.com/jkfzpz.jpg)
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98S INVEST
98S INVEST 100413 1200 14.1S 120.2E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100413 0600 13.3S 120.4E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100413 0000 13.0S 121.0E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100412 1800 12.8S 121.4E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100412 1200 12.4S 122.2E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100412 0600 12.2S 123.1E SHEM 15 1010
(http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/2025/36580914.jpg)
(http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/9741/56777662.jpg)
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98S INVEST
98S INVEST 100413 1200 14.1S 120.2E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100413 0600 13.3S 120.4E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100413 0000 13.0S 121.0E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100412 1800 12.8S 121.4E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100412 1200 12.4S 122.2E SHEM 15 1010
98S INVEST 100412 0600 12.2S 123.1E SHEM 15 1010
(http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/409/80215627.jpg)
(http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/1508/72093009.jpg)
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Aparece una INVEST cerca del 99S. Concretamente, ésta se sitúa al E de la 99S. Está localizada al sur de la isla de Java, Indonesia.
INVEST 91S
15kts-1010mb
(http://i39.tinypic.com/aax6zb.jpg)
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El JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical de la 91S, situada ahora mismo al SE de la isla de Java (Indonesia)
INVEST 91S
25kts-1004mb
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 116.6E TO 12.0S 114.1E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210530Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 116.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
(http://i40.tinypic.com/iqc4zd.jpg)
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Tiene buena pinta ese sistema....... formación en espiral...
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BUREAU le pone ojo al sistema y empieza a monitorizarlo
IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Wednesday 21 April 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A tropical low was located at 8 pm WST near 10.3S 116.4E,
that is 1170 km east of Christmas Island and 1150 km north of Dampier and
moving west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday as it
moves to the southwest. It is not expected to affect either Christmas Island or
the Australian mainland.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am WST 22 April.
(http://i44.tinypic.com/66g75c.gif)
Se encuentra con SST alta, con aguas que están sobre los 30-32ºC. La cizalladura también es baja, por lo que el sistema seguirña desarrollándose mientras sigue dirección SW
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La NOAA debió empezar a seguirla anoche. Se mantiene con ambiente favorable.
INVEST 91S
30kts-1000mb
(http://i44.tinypic.com/120j6lz.jpg)
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BMG no dice nada todavía
Boletín de Bureau
IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:01 pm WST on Thursday 22 April 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A tropical low was located at 2 pm WST near 12.4S 115.7E,
that is 1110 km east of Christmas Island and 940 km north of Karratha and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Friday as it moves in
a general southwest direction over open waters. It is not expected to affect
either Christmas Island or the Australian mainland.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm WST 22 April.
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Cierro tópic por finalización de temporada de actividad tropical.
;)