SPECIAL FEATURE...A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR27N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W. ANOTHERTROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W.MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DONE FOR THIS FEATURE...AND THE EARLIESTSHORT-TERM FORECAST INDICATES THAT IT WILL STAY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MORE OR LESS ITS SAME PRESSURE VALUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SUPPORTS A BROAD 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM NEAR 28N66W ALONG 25N67W 22N70W 23N74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N68W TO NEAR 192N72W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE EAST WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS...IS PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...AS OF 23/0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO AN EMBEDDED 1007 MB LOW AT 25N70W TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 66W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE IN A FEW HOURS AT 1200 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESPECIALLY TIGHT N OF THE LOW CENTER AND CONVECTION IS NOT IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CENTER THUS THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DRIFT N FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN DRIFT NW. IN ADDITION...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED NEARBY AT 26N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CENTER TO 55W.