FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 105 NM RADIUS OF 20.1S 50.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 50.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 89.8E TO 15.1S 87.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
212330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S
89.4E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S 92.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 010232Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING WITH A BAND OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHILE ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 010034Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
CURVED INFLOW ABOUT THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT BUT IS ALSO IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY EASTERLY FLOW
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED AND SHEARED
DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A LACK OF GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.