Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eker en Enero 20, 2010, 17:41:24 pm
-
Antes, un poco de información ;)
Periodo de actividad:
15 de Noviembre - 30 de Abril
Agencias que lo monitorizan:
Centro Meteorológico de Reunión, La Reunión http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/)
Centro de Alerta de Tifones, Guam (JTWC) (http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC)
Una vez se desarrollen y pasen a TD (depresión tropical) o mayor, se abrirá un tópic específico ;).
-
Pues tengo un poco de duda acerca de ubicar a los sistemas tropicales, pero creo que éste va aquí :P Es el sistema 91S que estaba sin pena ni gloria en el índico, pero en las últimas horas ha adquirido una pequeña pelota conectiva encima del centro. Mantiene vientos de 25 kts y 1004 mb :-*
-
Nueva INVEST por esa zona, muy cerquita de Madagascar, al E de la misma isla ;)
INVEST 97S
20kts-1007mb
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2ut5g83.jpg)
:O*
-
BULLETIN DU 26 JANVIER A 22H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
ZONE PERTURBEE 10-20092010
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1006 HPA.
POSITION LE 26 JANVIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 15.6 SUD / 59.8 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 730 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 11 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 17.8S/60.4E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 19.9S/60.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.8S/61.2E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER
AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE
LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN DEMAIN MATIN VERS 04H30 LOCALES
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/TGPR/actif/activite_en_cours.html
;)
-
JTWC lanza alerta de formación tropical de la INVEST 97S :P
WTXS21 PGTW 270930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S 59.4E TO 22.2S 60.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 59.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270211Z WINDSAT
PASS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER TURNING, WITH
STRONGER CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW INDICATE A 35 KNOT LLCC, THOUGH WINDSAT AND LOWER
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE LLCC IS WEAKER AND STILL
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS
PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. IN
ADDITION, OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
UPSTREAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280930Z.//
NNNN
Por el momento, 35kts-996mb :O*
-
(http://img682.imageshack.us/img682/3973/97s270930samsv.jpg)
:O*
-
Por ahí anda una nueva INVEST ::)
INVEST 96S
15kts-1010mb
(http://i45.tinypic.com/2qtl7vr.jpg)
:O*
-
;)
(http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/6091/sm201002092200meteo7xir.jpg) (http://img39.imageshack.us/i/sm201002092200meteo7xir.jpg/)
-
Nueva INVEST por esta zona del índico, concretamente al NE de Madagascar. Comienza la nueva numeración de nuevo ;)
INVEST 91S
15kts-1010mb
(http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/2583/sm201002141900meteo7xir.jpg)
Una vista más general...
(http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/1592/derimagesatellite.jpg)
:O*
-
Reunión comienza a seguir el sistema 91S. Apuesta por el nacimiento de ciclón tropical en 72h.
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
(http://i50.tinypic.com/30veyc6.png)
:O*
-
Tenemos otra INVEST, catalogada como INVEST 92S, detrás de la 91S
INVEST 92S
25kts-1004mb
(http://i45.tinypic.com/2uqg0g7.jpg)
Vista general
(http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/5281/indico.jpg)
-
Desde ayer, la MARINA monitoriza este sistema catalogándolo como 90S
INVEST 90S
15kts-1010mb
(http://i50.tinypic.com/6zbhn7.jpg)
-
La 90S Aun tiene una fuerza de :
15kts-1010mb- Se encuentra muy cerca de madagascar Veremos que sucede con este sistema ::)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2v96984.jpg)
(http://i50.tinypic.com/epf1xt.jpg)
-
Aumenta un poquillo la intensidad
20kts-1007mb
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2qkjswm.jpg)
El JTWC comenta también algo sobre este sistema
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 51.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052235Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE WEAK, FORMATIVE
BANDING NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051746Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A DEFINED
LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAND
INTERACTION) CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING BUT WEAK LLCC AND
PROXIMITY TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
-
Actualizo sat. de la INVEST 90S, ya casi dentro de Madagascar
(http://i45.tinypic.com/34o5uyp.jpg)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/27y719y.gif)
-
Otra INVEST más :P
INVEST 96S
15kts-1010mb
(http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/207/201003081400meteo7xir1k.jpg)
-
Actualizo sat. de las 96S. Sigue con misma intensidad y presión
(http://i47.tinypic.com/13zdd6q.jpg)
-
La INVEST 90S que se encontraba dentro de Madagascar sale fuera y se intensifica algo
25kts-1004mb
(http://i50.tinypic.com/119qw76.jpg)
Animación
(http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/8528/imageashxq.gif)
-
Aumenta de intensidad otro poco ;). Va teniendo mejor aspecto.
30kts-1000mb
(http://i50.tinypic.com/292le8g.jpg)
-
EL JTWC lanza alerta de formación tropical de la 90S
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 105 NM RADIUS OF 20.1S 50.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 50.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
(http://i50.tinypic.com/xp905x.jpg)
-
Nueva INVEST
INVEST 99S
15kts-1010mb
(http://i44.tinypic.com/24glq0w.jpg)
-
Aparece una INVEST 90S por esta zona. El JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical para la perturbación.
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 89.8E TO 15.1S 87.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
212330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S
89.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
30kts-1000mb
(http://i42.tinypic.com/dy20xh.jpg)
De momento, la cizalladura por esa zona es alta (entorno a los 30 kts). La SST al contrario, es alta, con aguas que oscilan los 30-31ºC.
-
INVEST 94S
15kts-1010mb
(http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/6152/201003311000meteo7xvis1.jpg)
-
Actualizo datos de la INVEST 94S
20kts-1007mb
(http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/3940/201004011700meteo7xir1k.jpg)
El JTWC le ha echado el ojo a este sistema
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S 92.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 010232Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING WITH A BAND OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHILE ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 010034Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
CURVED INFLOW ABOUT THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT BUT IS ALSO IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY EASTERLY FLOW
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED AND SHEARED
DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A LACK OF GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
-
Nueva INVEST
INVEST 99S
15kts-1010mb
(http://i39.tinypic.com/26117km.jpg)
-
Nueva INVEST por el SE de las Seychelles y al NE de Madagascar
INVEST 93S
(http://i40.tinypic.com/5v91mc.jpg)
-
Cierro tópic por finalización de temporada de actividad tropical.
;)