Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eker en Enero 20, 2010, 17:27:21 pm
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Antes, un poco de información ;)
Periodo de Actividad:
15 de Mayo - 30 de Noviembre.
Agencias que lo monitorizan:
Centro Nacional de Huracanes, Miami (NHC) (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac)
Una vez se desarrollen y pasen a TD (depresión tropical) o mayor, se abrirá un tópic específico ;).
Bloqueo el tema hasta que llegue la temporada.
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INVEST 90E 20kts-1007mb
(http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/4439/201005252015goes13xvis2.jpg)
(http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3927/ep201090model.gif)
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(http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/1311/post132311274840224.png)
(http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/1148/post132311274840166.png)
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Parece bastante probable que de aquí nazca AGATHA...
Nota general: para ver los attach hay que ser usuarios registrados. Por otro lado, si se coge información del foro, por favor, donde la uses, cítanos.
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Pues si Gale parece ser que Aghata saldra de ese sistema en el Pacifico lo que queda por ver es si sobrevive cunado entra a tierra y despues que hara cuando emerja la caribe segun los modelos. ;D ???
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Ya hay imágenes del canal visible. En las animaciones se aprecia giro ciclónico.
(http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/5126/visl.jpg)
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Si se ve giro ciclonico e incluso ha cambiado tambien su movimiento mas hacia el norte , esta muy cerca de las cosatas del sur de Mexico no se si realmente le de tiempo en desarrollarse un poco mas , realmente tien mucha lluvia este sistema y la va a descargar en Centro America ???
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Actualizo datos de la primera INVEST por esta cuenca ;)
INVEST 90E
25kts-1006mb
(http://i50.tinypic.com/21k02kw.jpg)
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Deberá empezar a carburar, antes que se encuentre más próximo a tierra y encuentre una zona, un tanto desfavorable debido al terreno montañoso de centroamérica. Por cierto que algunos modelos le dan algo de vida en su paso que tendrá por el Mar Caribe ::) ::) ::)
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Está más "bonito" a estas horas...
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Pues si brother mejor que ayer se ve en su organizacion y el NHC da 60 % de probabilidaes de que se forme una DT, pero e resulta interesante quee sta un poco erratico el movimiento de este sistema me imagino que sea que este en un ambiente de bajas corrientes de mov. ;D
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;)
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Pues nada, el JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical :P
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 12.9N 94.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
Y el NHC le da un 60% de probabilidad de desarrollo
(http://)ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH
NNNN
(http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/5391/twoepac.gif)
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Mientras, dejo datos del sistema ;)
INVEST 90E
25kts-1006mb
(http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/2132/201005271815goes13ir90e.jpg)
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Creo que AGATHA está a punto de cocinarse. Lástima por la gran circulación con la que cuenta, por eso ha retardado su desarrollo un poco ::)
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Atentos que el NHC toma posiciones y procede a RENUMERAR el Sistema, que sería el 1º de la cuenca esta Temporada:
- ACTF:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902010_ep012010.ren
EP, 01, 2010052906, , BEST, 0, 128N, 938W, 30, 1005, DB
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Ahí está...
- 1ºs avisos del NHC:
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291215
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
1200 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
AT 5 AM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF
GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 93.8W
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.3N 92.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.7N 91.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.4N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 91.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 93.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Pd: Gale, ¿puedes abrir el Topic?... joder, no puedo enviar privados aún... :'(
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Nueva INVEST por el Pacífico E
INVEST 91E
15kts-1010mb
(http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/2948/201006011030goes11ir91e.jpg)
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De momento, el NHC le da pobre desarrollo, tan solo de un 10%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 31 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
(http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/5391/twoepac.gif)
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;) ;)
(http://i48.tinypic.com/zunwxw.gif)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2s996xt.png)
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De momento nueva INVEST por la zona, aunque el NHC ve dos sistemas con, de momento, nivel amarillo de desarrollo.
INVEST 92E
20kts-1007mb
(http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/9826/201006141330goes11ir92e.jpg)
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El aviso del NHC de los dos sistemas
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141145
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 14 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAIN
POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS ALSO POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
(http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/3663/epacoverview.gif)
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(http://i45.tinypic.com/2h50l5v.gif)
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(http://i45.tinypic.com/2h50l5v.gif)
Aumentan a 30% :D
(http://i50.tinypic.com/14wzgxi.gif)
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;D .. ya saben...alli van siempre de dos en dos .....normalmente una con algo más de fuerza que la otra ...aunque el SAL entre otras cosas no está para dejarlas evolucionar mucho más durante su desplazamiento hacia el Oeste de momento
(http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/2789/splitws.jpg) (http://img143.imageshack.us/i/splitws.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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92E y 93 E ....ambas con 25kts y 1007mb
(http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/2829/sm201006161015goes13xir.jpg) (http://img683.imageshack.us/i/sm201006161015goes13xir.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
(http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/2829/sm201006161015goes13xir.jpg) (http://img576.imageshack.us/i/sm201006161015goes13xir.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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El NHC sube el rango posibilidad de desarrollo a las dos INVESTS
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
2. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM FROM THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
(http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/5391/twoepac.gif)
P.D: la pagina del JTWC no me funciona :-\
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La buena es la 93-E
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
(http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/6638/avnlc.jpg) (http://img195.imageshack.us/i/avnlc.jpg/)
;)
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te equivocaste de letra pepavilenho ...te refieres a la 93E , no?
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te equivocaste de letra pepavilenho ...te refieres a la 93E , no?
Si, es que estaba pensando ''atlanticamente'' :D1
Gracias ;)
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Por fin vuelve a estar operativa la página de JTWC y como era de esperar ya ha lanzado la alerta de formación tropical de la 92E
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 104.8W TO 19.0N 109.5W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.4W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
De momento sigue ahí. Dejo datos:
25kts-1007mb
(http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/757/201006171000goes11ir92e.jpg)
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:-X :-X
(http://i49.tinypic.com/o6i9sz.gif)
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;)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2lkuys7.gif)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/34t4fp1.png)
(http://i45.tinypic.com/10o2q6d.jpg)
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Pues ya tenemos a la INVEST 94E
INVEST 94E
25kts-1010mb
(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/2436/201006181945goes13vis1k.jpg)
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NHC le da un 40% de posibilidades de desarrollo y esto es lo que dice al respecto
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
1. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
(http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/5391/twoepac.gif)
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Nueva INVEST por la zona. Esto está que hierve :o
INVEST 95E
20kts-1009mb
(http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/6927/201006211815goes13vis1k.jpg)
Y el NHC le da un 40% de posibilidades de desarrollo ::)
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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/5391/twoepac.gif)
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Sigue mejorando el 95 E, le dan un 60 % de posibilidades de desarrollo.
(http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/3931/epac1.gif) (http://img204.imageshack.us/i/epac1.gif/)
1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_epac_sub.shtml?area1#contents
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Esta alta actividad en el EPAC me da que se va a contagiar al GOM y entorno del Caribe... Si no, al tiempo...
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Esta alta actividad en el EPAC me da que se va a contagiar al GOM y entorno del Caribe... Si no, al tiempo...
It looks like... :D1
De momento ya le dan una chance del 70% al 95-E, toca Darby.
;)
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Pues ahi que estar muy atentos a este nuevo sistema, que aunque todavia no es seguro, puede ser realidad en las proximas horas ;)
Esto esta que arde :o :o
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Madre mía, ya le dan un 80% de posibilidades de desarrollo
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
(http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/5391/twoepac.gif)
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De hecho, el JTWC lanza la alerta de formación tropical ;D
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 90.9W TO 11.1N 96.2W WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N
91.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
La cosa está jugosita 8)
INVEST 95E
25kts-1008mb
(http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/8521/201006221815goes13vis1k.jpg)
Ambiente favorable para su desarrollo, y parece que se desplazará por zona de 5-10 kts de cizalla ::)
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Nueva INVEST por la zona
INVEST 96E
20kts-1008mb
(http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/2700/201007121015goes13ir96e.jpg)
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Poquita cosa, vamos. Esto es lo que comenta el NHC
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 11 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
(http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/5391/twoepac.gif)
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Nueva INVEST por la esta zona del pacífico
INVEST 97E
20kts-1009mb
(http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/7597/201008011415goes13vis1k.jpg)
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Nueva INVEST por esta zona
INVEST 99E
20kts-1008mb
(http://img686.imageshack.us/img686/3123/201008041645goes13vis1k.jpg)
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Eso mismo estaba mirando yo ahora. El CNH le da un 40% de posibilidades de formacion, con lo cual nivel naranja:
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 4 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH OVER COOLER
WATER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Veremos haber si sigue fortaleziendose ;)
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El INVEST sigue en sus andas en fortalezerse y el CNH le da un 70% de formacion. Creo que en las proximas horas tendremos una TT en el pacifico.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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El JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical para las próximas horas :P
WTPN21 PGTW 050000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 95.3W TO 15.4N 100.3W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
INVEST 99E
25kts-1007mb
(http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/7995/201008051845goes13vis1k.jpg)
Buenas condiciones para su desarrollo, tanto de SST como de cizalla.
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Ha salido un caza hacia el sistema y estos son los datos que ha recogido
(http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/7451/ep201099hd.gif)
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Depresión Tropical SEVEN-E
(http://i36.tinypic.com/3450cvq.jpg)
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INVEST 90E
25kts-1007mb
(http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/8858/201008101445goes13vis1k.jpg)
El NHC no comenta nada sobre el mismo ::)
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INVEST 90E
25kts-1007mb
(http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/4748/201008141830goes11vis1k.jpg)
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NHC le da 20% de probabilidades de desarrollo y esto es lo que comenta
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Tenemos una nueva depresion tropical en el Pacifico Este,
Tropical Depression NINE-E
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220832
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED AS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. BANDING FEATURES...HOWEVER...ARE NOT
WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE SHIPS OUTPUT...THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LESS THAN 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
THE CENTER IS NOT VERY EASY TO LOCATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/6. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CENTER VERY CLOSE
THE COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE COAST...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK CONSENSUS.
IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.7N 94.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 13.7N 95.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.8N 96.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.0N 98.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 14.3N 99.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 15.4N 102.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 107.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Posdata: Cuando podais abrid el topic.
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INVEST 94E
25kts-1007mb
(http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/5415/201009011130goes11ir94e.jpg)
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NHC le da 60% de probabilidad de desarrollo
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Pues nada. JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical
WTPN21 PGTW 021430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011421ZSEP2010//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 106.6W TO 19.5N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
021400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
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Nueva área de INVEST
INVEST 96E
35kts-1001mb
(http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2560/201009201945goes13vis1k.jpg)
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El JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical
WTPN21 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 107.4W TO 22.2N 109.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 200930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS
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INVEST 97E
25kts-1006mb
(http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/8504/201009282030goes11xvis1.jpg)
El JTWC cancela la alerta de formación tropical, alegando que:
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270458Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A
WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOT) EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INCREASED
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO
"el satélite multiespectro muestra que el LLCC ha quedado al descubierto, con la convección situada al NW. En dicha área comenzará a aumentar la cizalladura en las próximas 24 horas, asociada a un anticiclón situado sobre México".
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TERMINA LA TEMPORADA DE HURACANES EN EL PACÍFICO E
Hasta la próxima. Cierro el post. ;)