LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO COMO A 950 MILLAS AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA GRADUALMENTE ORGANIZANDOSE MAS. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANEZCAN FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO Y ESTE DISTURBIO PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD ALTA...80 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL NOROESTE ENTRE 10 A 15 MPH.
UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ISCURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THEEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DOMINICA.PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW COULD BEDEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...AND THAT IT IS PRODUCING WINDSOF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IFADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A CENTER...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL EARLY THISEVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF A TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDEDFOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ANDTHE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEMMOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FORADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTSFROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BYTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.