El JTWC tiene al acecho los sistemas 94W y 97W. EL 97W está en mejor estado que el otro.
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
PERIPHERIES. A 032342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CURVED
CONVECTION. A 040048Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH 5- TO 10-KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INDICATING A MONSOON
DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM
SEVERAL DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
139.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.9N 127.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
040047Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK LLCC WITH 5- TO-
10 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS AND 15- TO 20- KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH. A 040306Z 37GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SOME
CURVATURE INTO THE LLCC. RECENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE
SYSTEM A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
Tema: Seguimiento INVESTs en el Pacífico Oeste, Año 2011. (Leído 2744 veces)