WXTLIST WMO=ABPW10
ABPW10 PGTW 040600                                              2007338 0518
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZDEC2007//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
176.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 177.2W, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 040145Z TRMM IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION NEAR A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
DISTURBANCE LIES DIRECTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LIMITING THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
WXTLIST: done

Tenemos otro ciclón tropical bueno a las puertas... A ver cómo evoluciona... :O*

parece que si evolucionara, havia donde se dirige?

Sistema 93P ascendido al rango de tormenta tropical, muy cerquita de las FIJI G:

REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 178.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 KNOTS (PGTW, KNES) TO 45
KNOTS (ABRF). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE AND
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE SYSTEM BEGINNING A
TURN TO THE SOUTH NEAR TAU 24 AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS A TROUGH
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. AFTER TAU 24 THE STORM WILL SLOW AND
CONTINUE TO RECURVE AS IT COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM
THE TROUGH BEFORE COMING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING NEAR TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
STORM BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND SYNOPTIC
SITUATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
040221Z DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
040230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

Actividad ciclónico-tropical media del área: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cgi_bin_scripts/tropical_cyclone.cgi

Todos los ciclones habidos en el hemisferio sur y para la región de australia: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi

Adjunto imagen IR resaltada con colores, donde se aprecia la posición de DAMAN respecto de las Fiji, y cómo ha mejorado su organización.



Histórico de ciclones tropicales en el área, en el período 1995 - 2004:


© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2007, Bureau of Meteorology.

se va directo a islas FIJI, y despues avanzara hacia el mar abierto :O* :O* :O*
saludos

Según el Navy, DAMAN habría alcanzado la categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir - Simpson (ciclón tropical de categoría 2 en la escala australiana), con vientos medios de 65KT y 974 hPa de presión mínima en su centro. En el boletín especial número 9 del servicio meteorológico de las Fiji, también le dan categoría 2 en la escala australiana, y vientos medios de 110 km/h con rachas por encima de los 150 km/h.

Acceso a los radares meteorológicos de Fiji: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?id=154
                                                            http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?id=30

Lluvia acumulada: http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65645.gif


(c) Fiji Meteorological Service

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type

-------------------------------------------------------------
00 GMT 12/05/07  12.1S 178.7E    40       Tropical Storm
12 GMT 12/05/07  12.6S 176.5E    60       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 12/06/07  14.7S 175.7E    65       Tropical Storm

Imagen de las 5:30 UTC en infrarrojo y resaltado:

ya es categoria 1. :O*

podria adquirir mas potencia?
saludos

No lo creo porque irán concurriendo dos factores: aumento de la cizalladura, que actualmente anda entre 10 y 20 KT, y su movimiento sobre aguas más frescas... Más bien pienso que tan pronto pase sobre las Fiji, se debilitará rápidamente...