Situación actual y prevision a 72 horas
WTIO31 PGTW 060900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 23.1N 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.8N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.4N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 25.3N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.4N 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.8N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
75 KNOTS. TC 02A HAS EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE
ARABIAN PENINSULA. A 060353Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED, BUT HAS LOST DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OVER IRAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST ASIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU
48 AND 72 IN SOUTHERN IRAN. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
//
Tema: Severo Ciclón Tropical GONU - Categoría 5 - (Mar Arábigo) (Leído 16725 veces)