WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 64.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT,
GUSTS 170 KTVi en algun mensaje anterior creo de
Ermuleto rachas maximas de 160 kts (296 km/h)
de cuanto estamos hablando ahora
THE STORM CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOW. WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE STORM HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEATCONTENT, BUT MAINTAINS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT
OF DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND THEN LAND EFFECTS AFTER
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF OMAN. DUE
TO LAND EFFECTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, TC 02A IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER THE GULF OF OMAN BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//