Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: ermuleto en Noviembre 12, 2007, 10:19:47 am
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Sistema Tropical 96P
25 kts - 1004 mb
(http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/5609/hemisferiosuror7.jpg)
(http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/1903/hemisferiosur2cs2.jpg)
Saludos!!! ;)
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Vi el sistema anoche... Has visto la barbaridad de área que ocupa?? :o :o :o Se aprecia una especie de organización en espiral... A ver qué da de sí esa amplísima área de mal tiempo y tronadas, como dicen los forecasters del NHC :P
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Tropical Low
Location :near 4S 93E
southwest of Sumatra, approximately 1000 kilometres north
northwest of the Cocos Islands.
Central Pressure :1004hPa
Recent movement :slowly west southwest
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Tuesday : low
Wednesday : low
Thursday : low
REMARKS - Most likely movement of the low is towards the southwest or west
southwest. The system is likely to persist as a weak tropical low over the next
three days but conditions are not favourable for development into a tropical
cyclone within the next three days.
[/size]
De momento parece que esta perturbación no tiene potencial de desarrollo según los servicios meteorológicos australianos...
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25 kts - 1004 mb
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parece que se dirige Papua-Nueva Guinea ¿no? ::) ::) ::)
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Sistema Tropical 96P
25 kts - 1004 mb
(http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/9295/hemisferiosurpu0.jpg)
(http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/4885/hemisferiosur2wm7.gif)
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cada vez se ve mas organizado ::) ::) ::)
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Sistema Tropical 96P
30 kts - 1000 mb
(http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/6337/hemisferiosurhq6.jpg)
(http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/2976/hemisferiosur2dx2.jpg)
Pues este bichito, contra todo pronóstico, sigue evolucionando e intensificándose.
Está siendo engendrado, en la misma zona que MÓNICA.
Su trayectoria actual le llevaría, de momento, a golpear la costa Este de Australia.
Ha sido declarada la Alerta de formación de un Ciclón Tropical.
Saludos.
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IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Tuesday the 13th of November 2007
A tropical low, 1000hPa was located near 11S 149.5E at 1pm [EST] moving
west-southwest at about 10 knots. A high located over southern Australia is
pushing a firm ridge to the south of the low.
Although the low is in a
favourable environment, development to the north side is expected to be slow due
to close proximity to New Guinea land mass.
The probability of the low developing into a tropical cyclone over the next
three days is:
Wednesday: Medium
Thursday: Medium
Friday: Medium
Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane can be accessed through the
Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au
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:O* :O*
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1018033177.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1018033177.html)
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Cada vez tiene mejor aspecto... Veremos a ver qué se forma de ahí... Los valores de cizalladura no son del todo malos, aunque parecen suficientes para retrasar el desarrollo...
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12 GMT 11/13/07 11.5S 148.6E 40 Tropical Storm
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Pues ya es un Ciclón Tropical, con categoría de Tormenta Tropical.
Se espera que golpee, la costa Este de Australia, como Categoría 1.
Saludos. G:
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Pues ya es un Ciclón Tropical, con categoría de Tormenta Tropical.
Se espera que golpee, la costa Este de Australia, como Categoría 1.
Saludos. G:
Menos mal que ayer el servicio australiano de meteo daba probabilidad baja de desarrollo de este sistema ;D
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(http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/7420/hemisferiosurnr4.gif)
(http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/4589/hemisferiosur2nd9.jpg)
:O* :O* :O*
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Enlaces primordiales para este seguimiento.
Imágenes de satélite.
Australia (http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/satellite/)
Radares de la posible zona de golpeo.
(http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/8059/australiaradarmappn8.png)
Isla Willis (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR413.loop.shtml)
Cairns (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR193.loop.shtml)
Townsville (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR213.loop.shtml)
Bowen (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR243.loop.shtml)
Mackay (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR223.loop.shtml)
Gladstone (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR233.loop.shtml)
Gympie (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR083.loop.shtml)
Brisbane (radar máxima resolución) (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml)
Mapas lluvia acumulada.
Mapas de lluvia acumulada y estado de los ríos (http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/)
Alertas.
Alertas y avisos (http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/warnings.shtml)
Cámaras web.
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:O*
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1041738698.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1041738698.html)
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pues parece que ya no se dirige al este de australia beer
(http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/4290/2phu9.gif) (http://imageshack.us)
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Ciclón Tropical 02P - Categoría TT -
35 kts - 996 mb
(http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/5462/hemisferiosurhs7.jpg)
(http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/5254/hemisferiosur2rc1.jpg)
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Nombraran a este Ciclón tropical???
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Nombraran a este Ciclón tropical???
Sí, pero no sé a qué están esperando.
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Radar Isla Willis.
(http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/1007/australiaradarmapvn6.png)
Comienza a aparecer nuestro amigo. :O*
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Nombraran a este Ciclón tropical???
Sí, pero no sé a qué están esperando.
Gracias Paco Reyes beer
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Se me olvidó comentar algo.
Los australianos tienen diferente escala, para clasificar las intensidad de los Ciclones Tropicales.
(http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/6453/escalasuc3.png)
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Ciclón Tropical 02P - Categoría TT -
35 kts - 996 mb
(http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9822/hemisferiosurxu1.jpg)
(http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/7540/hemisferiosur2sg2.jpg)
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Ciclón Tropical GUBA - Categoría TT - (Categoría 1 escala australiana)
35 kts - 995 mb
(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/1741/australia2qw0.gif)
(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/7113/australiaradarmapbk1.png)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:35pm on Wednesday the 14th of November 2007
A Cyclone WATCH has is current for coastal and island communities from Thursday
Island to Cape Flattery.
At 4:00 pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1 with central pressure 995
hectopascals was located near latitude 10.8 south and longitude 146.5 east which
is 405 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River.
The cyclone is moving west at 5 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Guba is expected to intensify over the next day or two.
Gales are not expected to affect coastal communities in the next 24 hours, but
may develop within 48 hours.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 4:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 995 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 10.8 degrees south
: longitude 146.5 degrees east
: which is 405 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : west 5 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 95 kilometres per hour [and INTENSIFYING]
People between Thursday Island and Cape Flattery should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure
about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt
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Ciclón Tropical GUBA - TT -
40 kts - 990 mb
(http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/9595/hemisferiosurev1.jpg)
(http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/4377/hemisferiosur2ut0.jpg)
(http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/6504/australiaradarmaphv2.png)
(http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/3717/australia2lw7.gif)
Buenos ecos de precipitación se ven en el radar.
Aunque el mapa de trayectoria lo desvía y no golpearía costas aussie, hay modelos que apuntan todo lo contrario.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 4:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 75 kilometres of
: latitude 10.5 degrees south
: longitude 146.1 degrees east
: which is 395 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : east southeast at 4 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/show_prod.cgi?IDQP0005.txt
Saludos.
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45 kts - 989 mb
(http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5025/gubalf7.jpg)
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(http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/5103/australiavx3.jpg)
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Ciclón Tropical GUBA - Categoría 1 -
70 kts - 970 mb
(http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/9272/hemisferiosurdb5.jpg)
(http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/2902/australia2wd5.gif)
Le hace honor a su nombre, que cosa más horrenda de Ciclón.
Saludos.
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(http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/9547/australia2zc4.gif)
(http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/9590/australiaradarmapxb4.png)
La posible trayectoria Sur, ya no es tan acentuada.
Aumentan las probabilidades de golpeo contra la costa australiana.
Saludos.
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La Navy de la 70 kts, o sea, Categoría 1.
El Tropical Weather le da como Tormenta Tropical.
Seguimos con las discrepancias, pero de una cosa estoy seguro, que una Tormenta Tropical no suele formar Ojo. Así que GUBA es Categoría 1.
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La Navy de la 70 kts, o sea, Categoría 1.
El Tropical Weather le da como Tormenta Tropical.
Seguimos con las discrepancias, pero de una cosa estoy seguro, que una Tormenta Tropical no suele formar Ojo. Así que GUBA es Categoría 1.
Si duda alguna mirando las imágenes satelitales del Navy, GUBA es un ciclón tropical de categoría 1... Apoyo lo que dices :)
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(http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/3687/cazahuracanesaustraliacnx6.jpg)
(http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/2209/australiayf1.jpg)
(http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/4507/cazahuracanesaustralia2fw2.jpg)
Parece que tenemos un gran bicho en ciernes. Se prevee, que se intensifique hasta la Categoría 3, en la escala Saffir-Simpson.
La mayoría de modelos pronostican, que golpeará la costa Este de Australia.
Saludos.
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Categoría 1
(http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/2111/gubamg6.gif)
(http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/6266/gmirhz8.jpg)
Tiene un buen giro ciclónico!
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Peke, dónde se supone que está Australia en esa imagen. ??? ??? ???
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70 knots 970 mb
(http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3726/gubawq6.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
ahora parece que se esta desorganizando ???
saludos
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45kts--989mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1016126525.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1016126525.html)
(http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/3471/idq65001guba17novzk3.gif) (http://imageshack.us)
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 5:00 am EST on Sunday the 18th of November 2007
At 4 am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 2] with central pressure 985
hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 12.0 south, longitude 147.1
east, which is about 405 km east northeast of Lockhart River and 560 km east
southeast of Thursday Island.
The cyclone has moved very slowly west-southwest in the last 12 hours and it is
expected to follow a similar track over the next two days. The cyclone has shown
considerable signs of weakening in the last 24 hours, and a slight weakening
trend may continue in the short term.
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Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 1:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 75 kilometres of
: latitude 10.0 degrees south
: longitude 144.9 degrees east
: which is 300 kilometres east northeast of Thursday Island
: and 365 kilometres north northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : north northeast at 10 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour
(http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/8130/australiain1.jpg)
12 GMT 11/13/07 11.5S 148.6E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/14/07 11.2S 147.0E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/14/07 10.6S 146.2E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/15/07 10.7S 145.9E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/15/07 10.9S 146.2E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/16/07 11S 146.5E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/16/07 11.5S 146.9E 85 Category 1
00 GMT 11/17/07 11.4S 147.3E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/17/07 11.8S 147.7E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/18/07 12.4S 146.7E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/18/07 13S 146.4E 45 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/19/07 11.9S 144.5E 40 Tropical Storm
Posible golpeo, como Tormenta Tropical, de las islas Murray y Darnley.
Saludos.
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Peke, dónde se supone que está Australia en esa imagen. ??? ??? ???
Ups! me equivoquede imagen al cargarla :-[