Este es el boletín 12 de discusión del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida:
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 091457
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008
THE EYE OF HERNAN HAS BECOME DRAMATICALLY MORE DISTINCT IN GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
IT IS NOW
SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. AMSR-E
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0937 UTC DEPICTED A SINGLE COMPLETE EYEWALL
AND AN EYE DIAMETER OF 20-25 N MI.
THERE SEEMS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
HERNAN HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...
HAVING UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS PROVIDES YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE
OF THE INABILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE...
AND THEREFORE THE HUMAN
FORECASTER...TO CAPTURE AND CONVEY THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE
EPISODES WITH A DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE EXACT
INITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 102 KT...WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 115 KT.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
COMPROMISES AT 105 KT...BUT WITHOUT ACTUAL WIND DATA TO KNOW ANY
BETTER...IT IS POSSIBLE HERNAN IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS
ESTIMATE.
UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 27 CELSIUS
NOW...AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE 26
CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN ROUGHLY 24 HOURS...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME. A FASTER DECLINE IS
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THEN SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN THE MODELS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
HERNAN HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...AND ONE MUST GIVE
SOME OF THE MODELS CREDIT FOR CORRECTLY FORECASTING THIS BEND
YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8...BUT A GRADUAL
TURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKENING
HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN
WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.7N 123.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.2N 124.4W 105 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.3N 127.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.6N 128.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 131.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Este boletín es interesante porque, o bien los satélites erran en el cálculo o estimación de la SST, o
es increíble que un ciclón sufra una intensificación tal sobre aguas a 27ºC 
Que alguien me lo explique
No creo que haya boyas meteorológicas que estén dando esos datos de SST. También se indica en la discusión lo inestable de los modelos meteorológicos en cuanto a predicción de intensidades y/o rumbos, y lo difícil de la labor del predictor a la hora de confeccionar los boletines.
Menos mal que HERNAN no está afectando lugares poblados, porque sino hubiera sido un desastre... (:B)
Tema: Gran Huracán HERNAN 09E - Categoría 3 - (Pacífico Este) (Leído 704 veces)