Este sistema tiene muchas posibilidades... Raro que no esté catalogado ya como depresión tropical

WTIO21 PGTW 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 65.9E TO 22.1N 65.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 65.9E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4N 65.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVEL-
OPING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 042120Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. STRONG LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS
AIDING SPIN-UP OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE
LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IT IS TRACKING
STEADILY POLEWARD TOWARD AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CON-
TINUES TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, REINFORCING RECENT LOW LEVEL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. BASED ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION, AND WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINING AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
NNNN

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