WTPN21 PGTW 101700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 138.0E TO 9.6N 129.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N
140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 101158Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 101200Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SOME ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR INDICATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10
KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB.
THE 10/12Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM KOROR SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT
GRADIENT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
(ALONG 10N LATITUDE) WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111700Z.//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 101534

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NW OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA)

B. 10/1357Z

C. 3.9N

D. 137.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .35 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.0,
PT IS A 1.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RAPP