La DT17W también ha sido ascendida a tormenta tropical... ATSANI. Y sus perspectivas, como las de su hermano gemelo, es las de alcanzar la categoría de supertifón...

Ryan Maue
‏@RyanMaue
Next weekend -- dual Super Typhoons will churn up entire Western Pacific.
#Goni to threaten Taiwan...#Atsani Japan?

Las previsiones son preocupantes. Un sistema tropical de esta intensidad, tocando tierra en Japón en 10 días...



Menuda parejita...




Una imagen reciente satelital:

El hermano gemelo de GONI no está tan desarrollado...

Estas dos bestias pueden llegar a 895 mb en 84 horas, a tenor de las últimas previsiones de GFS:

El gemelo de GONI va un poquito más lento... mejorando organización y consolidando un ojo que al principio era muy grande pero que ya se va estrechando...

WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM
NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A
37-NM RAGGED EYE. A 162041Z SSMIS IMAGE REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND REVEALS A 120-NM EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS
BASED ON A T4.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT OVERALL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY A TUTT CELL NEAR THE DATELINE; HOWEVER, THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT PRESSING DOWN OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TY 17W REMAINS IN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND THE STRONG STR TO THE NORTH. THIS STEERING INFLUENCE HAS
GENRALLY PRODUCED A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 12, THE NER
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE STR TO BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. THEREFORE, TY 17W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PRIPHERY OF THE STR. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF
THE LLCC AND THE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN WILL
ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 17W TO
MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD IWO TO. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 120, CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RE-CURVE SCENARIO TOWARD WESTERN OR CENTRAL
JAPAN ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE.//
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Anoche sobre esta bestia............. Animación que he construido en base a la galería de imágenes de alta resolución a intervalos de 10 m. obtenida por el Himawari 8... ¡¡Qué belleza!!

Ayer Atsani parece que realizó a última hora un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo, tras el cual, se ha vuelto a fortalecer. Yo creo que hoy es el día en que puede llegar a la categoría 5, y actualmente está a pelo de calvo de ser supertifón:

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 08/14/15  15.1N 163.0E     30       
12 GMT 08/14/15  15.1N 162.3E     35       
18 GMT 08/14/15  15.1N 161.9E     40       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/15/15  14.9N 162.1E     40       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/15/15  15.0N 161.9E     45       Tropical Storm
12 GMT 08/15/15  15.1N 161.8E     50       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/15/15  15.2N 161.3E     65       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/16/15  14.9N 161.0E     65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/16/15  14.6N 160.5E     75       Category 1
12 GMT 08/16/15  14.6N 159.9E     75       Category 1
18 GMT 08/16/15  14.4N 159.4E     75       Category 1
00 GMT 08/17/15  14.4N 159.2E     85       Category 1
06 GMT 08/17/15  14.6N 158.4E    100       Category 2
12 GMT 08/17/15  15.0N 158.0E    110       Category 2
18 GMT 08/17/15  15.6N 157.1E    120       Category 3
00 GMT 08/17/15  14.4N 159.2E     85       Category 1
18 GMT 08/17/15  15.6N 157.1E    120       Category 3
00 GMT 08/18/15  16.0N 156.2E    135       Category 4
06 GMT 08/18/15  16.3N 155.3E    135       Category 4
12 GMT 08/18/15  17.0N 154.8E    140       Category 4
18 GMT 08/18/15  17.9N 153.9E    140       Category 4
00 GMT 08/19/15  18.6N 152.9E    150       Category 4
06 GMT 08/19/15  19.2N 151.9E    150       Category 4

WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYMMETRIC CORE WITH FEEDER BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO AN 22-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY
ATSANI IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 17W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING STR. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 BY TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
   C. STY 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 96. AFTERWARD, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, TURNING STY
17W POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOWER OHC VALUES
AND INCREASED VWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY STY ATSANI. BY TAU 120, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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