Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 14, 2015, 14:45:34 pm
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Que recibirá el nombre de Atsani, si su gemelo toma antes del de Goni, y también llamado a ser un posible supertifón...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMXrRBcWEAAnesi.png)
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La DT17W también ha sido ascendida a tormenta tropical... ATSANI. Y sus perspectivas, como las de su hermano gemelo, es las de alcanzar la categoría de supertifón...
Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
Next weekend -- dual Super Typhoons will churn up entire Western Pacific.
#Goni to threaten Taiwan...#Atsani Japan?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMdgsASU8AAwFQM.png:large)
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NWS OPC @NWSOPC 3 hhace 3 horas
12Z Himawari infrared #satellite image of Tropical Storms #Goni & #Atsani in the Western Pacific.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMdGFCUVAAAAqyo.png:large)
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Las previsiones son preocupantes. Un sistema tropical de esta intensidad, tocando tierra en Japón en 10 días...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMgzKwbUwAAsDGK.png)
Menuda parejita...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMg3jtHWsAAMQ09.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMg3jp5W8AAXzSf.jpg)
Una imagen reciente satelital:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMgQQoGWgAEDlKb.jpg)
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Falta todavía mucho y hay mucha incertidumbre, pero es cierto que habrá que seguir la cosa con mucha atención... ;)
Por cierto, ya son tifones de categoría 1...
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El hermano gemelo de GONI no está tan desarrollado...
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-Imy7504d-xk/VdDfxu2RHXI/AAAAAAAADA8/fFUs9NiWmdc/w720-h480-no/atsani.gif)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMlh3F8WoAAgG0E.png:large)
Vía Ryan Maue
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Estas dos bestias pueden llegar a 895 mb en 84 horas, a tenor de las últimas previsiones de GFS:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMlcXYTWwAAiH_B.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMlcXduW8AARurh.png)
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Esos pronósticos llevan a Goni cerca de Taiwan y a Atsani del Oeste de Japón en 3-7 días:
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/7oZL6RH3g0pLAFuAloHpZYwyOnms2ZGyYnA1MqYWZ85U=w598-h448-no)
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El gemelo de GONI va un poquito más lento... mejorando organización y consolidando un ojo que al principio era muy grande pero que ya se va estrechando...
WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM
NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A
37-NM RAGGED EYE. A 162041Z SSMIS IMAGE REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND REVEALS A 120-NM EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS
BASED ON A T4.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT OVERALL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY A TUTT CELL NEAR THE DATELINE; HOWEVER, THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT PRESSING DOWN OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TY 17W REMAINS IN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND THE STRONG STR TO THE NORTH. THIS STEERING INFLUENCE HAS
GENRALLY PRODUCED A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 12, THE NER
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE STR TO BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. THEREFORE, TY 17W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PRIPHERY OF THE STR. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF
THE LLCC AND THE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN WILL
ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 17W TO
MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD IWO TO. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 120, CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RE-CURVE SCENARIO TOWARD WESTERN OR CENTRAL
JAPAN ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE.//
NNNN
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-R1mL_M0vF88/VdF9yeyud3I/AAAAAAAADCY/S0z-sgFcJ0c/w720-h480-no/atsanivis.gif)
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Los datos actuales indican que el tifón tiene ahora 115 KT de vientos sostenidos, lo que le aúpa a la categoría 4 menor...
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Anoche sobre esta bestia............. Animación que he construido en base a la galería de imágenes de alta resolución a intervalos de 10 m. obtenida por el Himawari 8... ¡¡Qué belleza!! :o :o :o :o
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-cMhet1CUyOs/VdLnYivnGII/AAAAAAAADDE/3avVOoftGdE/w818-h577-no/gtujk.gif)
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Impresionante la visión de este coloso desde la ISS:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMtXjMyXAAA2ta5.jpg)
@Astro_Kimiya
Un poquito más lejos... La pareja:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMveA8DU8AQ0lwv.jpg)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Zm2zfvZjZAbrlQikvK5NaMgKMCCP6Fu5C7A4YQx5EFMo=s518-no)
Y gracias a Sagliani y Maue disfrutamos de estas dos animaciones de Atsani.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/HNtO1rpN7iaL0i-jJZAkpzcr-rWxuLm-TxYFO4Id5ttJ=w598-h448-no)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/AiqDdyFo90Ymj4C6YZNgEyckY7TqJgewruiqi1tj_jGP=w634-h422-no)
Su evolución:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMpUpieU8AAfLcr.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMpUpibUcAA_rwh.jpg)
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Ayer Atsani parece que realizó a última hora un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo, tras el cual, se ha vuelto a fortalecer. Yo creo que hoy es el día en que puede llegar a la categoría 5, y actualmente está a pelo de calvo de ser supertifón:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
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06 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 163.0E 30
12 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 162.3E 35
18 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 161.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/15/15 14.9N 162.1E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/15/15 15.0N 161.9E 45 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 08/15/15 15.1N 161.8E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/15/15 15.2N 161.3E 65 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/16/15 14.9N 161.0E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/16/15 14.6N 160.5E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 08/16/15 14.6N 159.9E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 08/16/15 14.4N 159.4E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 08/17/15 14.4N 159.2E 85 Category 1
06 GMT 08/17/15 14.6N 158.4E 100 Category 2
12 GMT 08/17/15 15.0N 158.0E 110 Category 2
18 GMT 08/17/15 15.6N 157.1E 120 Category 3
00 GMT 08/17/15 14.4N 159.2E 85 Category 1
18 GMT 08/17/15 15.6N 157.1E 120 Category 3
00 GMT 08/18/15 16.0N 156.2E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 08/18/15 16.3N 155.3E 135 Category 4
12 GMT 08/18/15 17.0N 154.8E 140 Category 4
18 GMT 08/18/15 17.9N 153.9E 140 Category 4
00 GMT 08/19/15 18.6N 152.9E 150 Category 4
06 GMT 08/19/15 19.2N 151.9E 150 Category 4
WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYMMETRIC CORE WITH FEEDER BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO AN 22-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY
ATSANI IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 17W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING STR. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 BY TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. STY 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 96. AFTERWARD, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, TURNING STY
17W POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOWER OHC VALUES
AND INCREASED VWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY STY ATSANI. BY TAU 120, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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La colección de imágenes en VIS del Himawari es la leche... se queda uno hipnotizado viéndolas.. :o :o :o :o
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-T2wGzJlUMOY/VdRE-XLt_VI/AAAAAAAADEc/LGDeFo8xQcA/w800-h565-no/atsan.gif)
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Curiosidades............... A parte de que Atsani parece anular y que su nubosidad se ha calentado algo (perdido fuelle), su ojo es muy grande. Casi ha coincido con una cuadrícula de 1 x 1 grado, que equivale a un diámetro de unos 110 km...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMxxusGWIAAnmzK.png:large)
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Según información oficial, Atsani ha alcanzado los 140 KT justo antes de que su nubosidad haya comenzado a calentarse... por lo que se supertifón.
WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND DEEP WITH FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN EXPANDED 34-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE EIR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS A SECONDARY EYE IS BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THE PRIMARY
EYE. THIS EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS CAPTURED IN A 190910Z F18
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VWS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 17W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING STR. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH
WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, TURNING STY ATSANI MORE POLEWARD.
CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOWER OHC VALUES AND INCREASED
VWS WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER
THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
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06 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 163.0E 30
12 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 162.3E 35
18 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 161.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/15/15 14.9N 162.1E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/15/15 15.0N 161.9E 45 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 08/15/15 15.1N 161.8E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/15/15 15.2N 161.3E 65 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/16/15 14.9N 161.0E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/16/15 14.6N 160.5E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 08/16/15 14.6N 159.9E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 08/16/15 14.4N 159.4E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 08/17/15 14.4N 159.2E 85 Category 1
06 GMT 08/17/15 14.6N 158.4E 100 Category 2
12 GMT 08/17/15 15.0N 158.0E 110 Category 2
18 GMT 08/17/15 15.6N 157.1E 120 Category 3
00 GMT 08/17/15 14.4N 159.2E 85 Category 1
18 GMT 08/17/15 15.6N 157.1E 120 Category 3
00 GMT 08/18/15 16.0N 156.2E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 08/18/15 16.3N 155.3E 135 Category 4
12 GMT 08/18/15 17.0N 154.8E 140 Category 4
18 GMT 08/18/15 17.9N 153.9E 140 Category 4
00 GMT 08/19/15 18.6N 152.9E 150 Category 4
06 GMT 08/19/15 19.2N 151.9E 150 Category 4
12 GMT 08/19/15 19.6N 151.3E 160 Category 5
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El satélite Himawari-8 está enviando imágenes asombrosas de esta 'bestia':
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMzVcbJUYAA_4k_.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMzKLDkUwAEicH6.png)
Y el Suomi NPP ídem:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMzA_7SUAAAWiau.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMyCm-qUEAElCWz.jpg)
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La pareja...
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/A_KsUCNNyq70PJVg0QbvPED-HVm8RXsKJTiR92MVfwY-=w616-h436-no)
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Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 163.0E 30
12 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 162.3E 35
18 GMT 08/14/15 15.1N 161.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/15/15 14.9N 162.1E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/15/15 15.0N 161.9E 45 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 08/15/15 15.1N 161.8E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/15/15 15.2N 161.3E 65 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/16/15 14.9N 161.0E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/16/15 14.6N 160.5E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 08/16/15 14.6N 159.9E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 08/16/15 14.4N 159.4E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 08/17/15 14.4N 159.2E 85 Category 1
06 GMT 08/17/15 14.6N 158.4E 100 Category 2
12 GMT 08/17/15 15.0N 158.0E 110 Category 2
18 GMT 08/17/15 15.6N 157.1E 120 Category 3
00 GMT 08/17/15 14.4N 159.2E 85 Category 1
18 GMT 08/17/15 15.6N 157.1E 120 Category 3
00 GMT 08/18/15 16.0N 156.2E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 08/18/15 16.3N 155.3E 135 Category 4
12 GMT 08/18/15 17.0N 154.8E 140 Category 4
18 GMT 08/18/15 17.9N 153.9E 140 Category 4
00 GMT 08/19/15 18.6N 152.9E 150 Category 4
06 GMT 08/19/15 19.2N 151.9E 150 Category 4
12 GMT 08/19/15 19.6N 151.3E 160 Category 5
18 GMT 08/19/15 20.4N 150.4E 155 Category 4
00 GMT 08/20/15 21.2N 149.5E 155 Category 4
06 GMT 08/20/15 22.0N 148.6E 155 Category 4
Se mantiene como categoría 4... pero aún puede recuperar la 5 de nuevo durante el día de hoy... ;)
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Espectacular anochecer con Atsani como protagonista:
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dGJ95Bx55uc/VdWg1C255dI/AAAAAAAADGA/lZOXZ3cQm9Y/w720-h480-no/ghnjdg.gif)
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Ex ATSANI, Loke y una baja extratropical en una misma imagen... pasote...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNXUcwOWgAAl6Ah.png:large)