000WTNT41 KNHC 091438TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0120151100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015Deep convection has increased somewhat near the center of thestorm, and SFMR observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunterscontinue to support an intensity of 50 kt. Ana will be movingover the cooler waters to the northwest of the Gulf Stream latertoday, and water vapor imagery shows a belt of upper-levelnortherly flow advancing toward the tropical cyclone. Thedecreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing northerly shearshould cause Ana to weaken as it nears the coast. The officialintensity forecast is similar to that from the previous package,and very close to the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN.The initial motion estimate is 320/3. The track forecast reasoningremains basically unchanged from the past few advisories. Globalmodels continue to predict that the blocking mid-level ridge to thenorth of Ana will shift eastward and weaken over the next couple ofdays. These models also show a broad trough moving from the centralto the eastern U.S. over the next 72 hours or so. This shouldresult in the cyclone turning northward and north-northeastward witha gradual increase in forward speed. The official track forecast issimilar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latestdynamical model consensus, TVCN.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 09/1500Z 32.7N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 33.2N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 34.9N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 36.1N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1200Z 40.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Pasch
Scott Bachmeier @CIMSS_Satellite 2 minHace 2 minutosTropical Storm #Ana: 1-km resolution Suomi NPP VIIRS visible & IR images at 1750 UTC http://go.wisc.edu/492ksz