TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL AS CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED UP.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE MAINTAINED A 22-NM RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A 041051Z 37V SSMIS
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
110 KNOTS IS BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TY 18W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

Model/Weather Mizu @hepomodeler: Phanfone gives little affects to N Kyushu, incld Kumamoto. Slightly strong winds, weak rains. Seem to cease soon.