THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N
153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A
WEAKER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER-
IPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH MAY BE SLOWING DEVELOPMENT.
A 200MB ANTICYCLONE THAT IS NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE, IS CON-
TRIBUTING TO LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.