Y parece que podrá tomar el nombre de RICHARD sin dificultades... Curioso giro el que parece que se verá obligado a tomar...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 210232
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...RESULTING IN
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  BASED PRIMARILY ON THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NOW MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  RECONNAISSANCE DATA
FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE
TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS.

SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/02.  THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION AT THE BASE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TO THE WEST OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...
SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER
THAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH
THE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TROUGH.  AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN
A DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0300Z 17.5N  81.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 17.1N  80.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N  80.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.4N  81.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 16.3N  81.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.6N  84.1W    50 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N  87.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N  90.0W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

Según el "Best Track", la 19L ya es tormenta tropical, y le toca el nombre de RICHARD

BEGIN
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invest_al192010.invest
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201010211240
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END
   RICHARD, AL, L, , , , , 19, 2010, TS, O, 2010101700, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL192010
AL, 19, 2010101606,   , BEST,   0, 108N,  751W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 19, 2010101612,   , BEST,   0, 109N,  757W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 19, 2010101618,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  763W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 19, 2010101700,   , BEST,   0, 113N,  774W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, D,
AL, 19, 2010101706,   , BEST,   0, 117N,  784W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, D,
AL, 19, 2010101712,   , BEST,   0, 123N,  795W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101718,   , BEST,   0, 128N,  804W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101800,   , BEST,   0, 133N,  810W,  20, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101806,   , BEST,   0, 137N,  814W,  20, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 19, 2010101812,   , BEST,   0, 141N,  818W,  25, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  250,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101818,   , BEST,   0, 146N,  823W,  25, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  220,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101900,   , BEST,   0, 153N,  828W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  300,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101906,   , BEST,   0, 160N,  831W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,  850,    0,   0,   0,   0,
AL, 19, 2010101912,   , BEST,   0, 167N,  833W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  250,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101918,   , BEST,   0, 174N,  834W,  30, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  250,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102000,   , BEST,   0, 177N,  832W,  30, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102006,   , BEST,   0, 178N,  829W,  30, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102012,   , BEST,   0, 177N,  825W,  30, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  190,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102018,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  817W,  30, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102100,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  812W,  30, 1006, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  220,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,   NINETEEN, M,
AL, 19, 2010102106,   , BEST,   0, 172N,  808W,  30, 1006, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  220,  70,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,   NINETEEN, M,
AL, 19, 2010102112,   , BEST,   0, 165N,  807W,  35, 1006, TS,  34, NEQ,   90,   90,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  80,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    RICHARD, S,

Richard tiene buena convergencia y un anticiclón en altura que le está proporcionando un excelente outflow.
El shear está en descenso entre 5-10 kts y las aguas en 29 grados, por lo que tiene que intensificarse sí o sí. Ya veremos cuánto.

Pues a pesar de los datos bien comentados por Sanit, RICHARD se resiste a progresar Según el último informe, el 10, debido a la lucha del ciclón contra la cizalladura y el aire seco... Así, han rebajado las espectativas, dejando la intensidad máxima por debajo de la categoría de huracán, ya que el ciclón puede interactuar con tierra al aproximarse a Honduras.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD.  DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A
40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  DURING THAT
TIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE
INLAND.   AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN
THAT DIRECTION.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW
THESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS
COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0900Z 15.8N  83.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N  84.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N  87.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N  89.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  91.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  93.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N  94.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

Adjunto la última imagen del visible:

Pues ahora si que se está intensificando. Ya cuenta con 55 kts y el NHC comenta que está sufriendo una rápida intensificación

Anda!

000
WTNT44 KNHC 231458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH
FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE
UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A
HURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE
WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT.  A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN
INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS.  MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT
DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.   

HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.9N  83.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N  89.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  94.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE