TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 26W REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE EYE STRUCTURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD REFLECT THE RECENT INCREASE TO 125 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE EYEWALL CONVECTION AS DEEP BANDING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED, PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW TO SUPPORT THE STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH OF TY 26W. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE IS CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ON THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED, INTENSE SYSTEM THAT HAS A 9NM EYE AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORT THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS ADDITIONALLY SUPPORTED BY A RECENT JUMP IN THE LATEST CIMMS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 141 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM. STY 26W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type-------------------------------------------------------------18 GMT 11/25/12 3.6N 157.0E 30 Tropical Depression00 GMT 11/26/12 4.2N 156.6E 35 Tropical Depression06 GMT 11/26/12 4.5N 156.0E 35 Tropical Depression12 GMT 11/26/12 4.7N 155.4E 35 Tropical Depression18 GMT 11/26/12 4.2N 156.0E 35 Tropical Depression00 GMT 11/27/12 4.4N 155.8E 40 Tropical Storm06 GMT 11/27/12 4.5N 155.7E 40 Tropical Storm12 GMT 11/27/12 4.6N 155.5E 50 Tropical Storm18 GMT 11/27/12 4.7N 155.1E 50 Tropical Storm00 GMT 11/28/12 4.7N 154.4E 60 Tropical Storm06 GMT 11/28/12 5.0N 153.0E 60 Tropical Storm12 GMT 11/28/12 5.0N 152.1E 65 Tropical Storm18 GMT 11/28/12 4.4N 150.7E 65 Tropical Storm00 GMT 11/29/12 4.1N 149.6E 65 Tropical Storm06 GMT 11/29/12 4.0N 148.8E 60 Tropical Storm12 GMT 11/29/12 3.8N 147.9E 60 Tropical Storm18 GMT 11/29/12 3.6N 146.9E 60 Tropical Storm00 GMT 11/30/12 3.5N 146.2E 65 Tropical Storm06 GMT 11/30/12 3.8N 145.2E 75 Category 112 GMT 11/30/12 4.2N 144.3E 75 Category 118 GMT 11/30/12 4.4N 143.0E 105 Category 200 GMT 12/01/12 4.7N 142.0E 135 Category 406 GMT 12/01/12 5.0N 141.2E 135 Category 412 GMT 12/01/12 5.4N 140.1E 135 Category 418 GMT 12/01/12 5.8N 138.8E 145 Category 400 GMT 12/02/12 6.1N 137.6E 150 Category 406 GMT 12/02/12 6.3N 136.0E 155 Category 412 GMT 12/02/12 6.5N 134.6E 155 Category 418 GMT 12/02/12 6.5N 133.1E 135 Category 400 GMT 12/03/12 6.7N 131.6E 120 Category 306 GMT 12/03/12 6.9N 130.4E 135 Category 412 GMT 12/03/12 7.4N 128.9E 160 Category 518 GMT 12/03/12 7.5N 127.2E 160 Category 500 GMT 12/04/12 7.7N 126.0E 125 Category 3
Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.