Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Septiembre 29, 2016, 15:18:41 pm
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Desarrollando un impresionante "burst" convectivo a estas horas, e intentando construir un núcleo interno más sólido. Así lo confirma el boletín de discusión del JTWC.
(https://scontent-frt3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/l/t1.0-0/s480x480/14462998_10210673395451741_4511479370335021773_n.jpg?oh=94ab75d28dcdb3075e08325088546676&oe=587D8498)
WDPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290603Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST
TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS CHABA IS TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE STR WILL STEER TS CHABA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE RE-
ORIENTS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION WILL COMMENCE AS POLEWARD OUTFLFOW
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING TUTT CELL TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. TS CHABA IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
GREATLY BEYOND TAU 72, WITH THE GFS AND JGSM REMAINING ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH THE NAVGEM AND ECMFW TO THE LEFT
OF CONSENSUS. AT THIS TIME, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS TO
THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120 BASED
ON RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE NAVGEM AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS. THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUAL RECURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STR. VWS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND ACCOMPANIED BY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 96. DUE TO THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Muchos días por delante aún, pero parece que llegará a ser un tifón de categoría 2 o 3 en la escala de Saffir Simpson, acercándose peligrosamente a Japón, por donde anda Jesús Calleja con Mirella Belmonte.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5334/gfs_pres_wind_wpac_23_htr8.png)
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CHAMBA sigue intensificándose, y el último borbotón convectivo ha contribuido, con lo que la intensidad actual es de 40 KT.
WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1011 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT, WHICH IS OBSCURING A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291153Z
METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE
OF THE LLCC AND LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST. TS CHABA IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WHILE TURNING ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
200-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF RE-CURVE
AND TRACK SPEEDS. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF AIDS WITH
NAVGEM, GFDN, COAMPS-TC AND ECMWF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS
ENVELOPE, AND SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UKMET,
JENS, HWRF, GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SHARP RE-CURVE
SOUTH OF HONSHU, AND PROVIDE A MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION SINCE THE
200MB JET IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND JAPAN. TS
21W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU
120 AND WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE TO THE LARGE
DEGREE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-laYc2gE3Gug/V-04ttouAkI/AAAAAAAAFIM/x3fA2hhmPw8zSmXFbkyklbgPYlQr8R_ZACL0B/w530-d-h353-rw/chambaa.gif)
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CHABA sigue progresando, aunque lentamente... El último boletín del JTWC de las 9 UTC de hoy le asigna 50 KT de intensidad mientras se mueve al noroeste a 7 KT.
WDPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 934 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT TS 21W IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300546Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED AS THE
LLCC CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS
UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSES CONTINUE TO REVEAL GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW
AIDED BY THE TUTT TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. RECENT MSI UP TO 300800Z CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION, BOLSTERING CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS CLEARLY MADE THE POLEWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
ADDITIONALLY A 300545Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TS 21W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE
INTENSIFYING STEADILY DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN (TWO PRIMARY OUTLIERS), THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 170-
NM AT TAU 72, JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
NAVGEM AND THE OTHER MODELS IS THAT NAVGEM MAINTAINS AN EXTENSION OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH WHILE THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA EFFECTIVELY DELAYING THE RE-CURVE. THE BULK
OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO WITH A CLEAR BREAK
IN THE STR THAT ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE. THE NAVGEM (AND GFDN)
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AND ARE CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED. TS 21W
IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE DYNAMIC MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
NAVGEM AND GFDN REMAINING THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS WEST OF THE BULK OF
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS CLUSTERED NEAR OKINAWA AND
WESTERN JAPAN. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO OVER WESTERN JAPAN AS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO,
HOWEVER, THERE IS, OF COURSE, UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK NEAR
OKINAWA THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 21W SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96 AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LAND
INTERACTION WILL ALSO SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WHICH IS TYPICAL
IN RE-CURVE SCENARIOS.//
NNNN
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Impacto en Japón como tifón, pero no demasiado intenso a priori, según modelos GFS / IFS. Diferencias en cuanto a zonas de impacto:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ctm9sJyWYAAzjYv.jpg)
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Siguen los pronósticos llevándolo a Japón con tifón de categoría 1...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtsZ8W9WYAABfz0.jpg)
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CHABA parece seguir intensificándose, con topes muy fríos e intentando dibujar un ojo pequeño. No sería ninguna sorpresa que el pico de intensidad sea más elevado de lo previsto, aunque tiene en su camino una zona con mucha cizalladura.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-T3I9rZPP7c4/V_AKa7bvsSI/AAAAAAAAFJE/0Q4gZlZIhMgfIi7Pl22pzJA4AYb37_b-gCL0B/w530-d-h353-rw/chabaa.gif)
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CHABA se intensificó hasta la categoría 4 durante la madrugada............ y ahora parece más debilitado. Las previsiones actuales indican categoría 3 con vientos de 110 nudos...
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El supertifón #Chaba en #Cat5 con vientos de 270 km/h al W del #Pacífico, puede pasar sobre la isla de #Kume en la tarde
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-QFXY1pkoxWk/V_I3bykwLjI/AAAAAAAAINo/FEgf8zTcG08Qq_BEC8RcOgwKy54lLSsxgCL0B/w758-h583-no/Chaba.jpeg)
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Imágenes visibles del supertifón #Chaba en #Cat5 con vientos de 270 km/h
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-5u2MQfQHir8/V_I6nli7wGI/AAAAAAAAIOw/uo8LyOuovcMCivu_q6ro5zNEDvdQNWb4ACL0B/w731-h583-no/sat_2016_10_03_10_30_1516_280.png)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-bg8sAfKYEPM/V_I6nkql4QI/AAAAAAAAIOw/JXUNd-s2VDYUG_W9x3yBF_QZgz5QWdFZgCL0B/w667-h583-no/LATEST.jpg)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-swL1yNtC5AE/V_I6n59YjKI/AAAAAAAAIOk/W5xykeSehkch2pZD6WCZGSJioejHTCXpQCL0B/s583-no/2016WP21_1KMSRVIS_201610030840.GIF)
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Así veía el Modis de #Aqua al supertifón #Chaba en #Cat5
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-fULg0iLm4jw/V_JCcBHpOJI/AAAAAAAAIPc/_vMxPBl8alYq39lq29qNzTXyvjQwyi30gCL0B/w912-h583-no/Aqua.jpg)
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-IRk0C4WaoMI/V_JCcK9RyPI/AAAAAAAAIPc/3-Sid03ZmyU4R9OPbLA9lPuRQz4UaFRgwCL0B/w912-h583-no/image-download%2B%252810%2529.jpg)
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Animación de #Chaba de #TS a #Cat5 en 42 horas
https://youtu.be/r1Zjmoq5dwQ
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-4FRJsek3yI4/V_JOuHcO3iI/AAAAAAAAIPs/x8PRw_81UGEvVfChp7nsiHmWOiuq8b7ewCL0B/w720-h540-no/Chaba%2Bde%2BTS%2Ba%2BCat5.gif)
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Super tifon #CHABA, peligro inminente para Japón y Corea del Sur http://lsh.re/17PKQ Animación Himawari8
https://www.facebook.com/cazatormentas.net/videos/1401084903253035/
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Evolución de las últimas horas... :o :o :o
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-teAGWWGI6cs/V_KHLZviixI/AAAAAAAAFKQ/IVCJZIXMqdMEwZskbHfTUrwmcNfv6gzswCL0B/w530-d-h353-rw/superchab.gif)
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Otra animación impresionante de CHABA de anoche (hora española) cuando alcanzaba la categoría 5...
https://www.facebook.com/NOAANESDIS/videos/1324415904265350/
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Más datos de interés:
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 3 hHace 3 horas Walnut Creek, CA Ver traducción
Super typhoon #Chaba now has max winds of 145 knots - the 3rd strongest TC in the N. Hemisphere this year - trailing Meranti and Nepartak.
El pico de 145 KT de intensidad alcanzado por CHABA lo convierte en el 3er ciclón tropical más intenso este año en el hemisferio norte...
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Viendo "dónde se está metiendo" CHABA, el debilitamiento progresivo no debería de tardar en comenzar... ::)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct3qe94W8AQ5o0m.jpg)
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La cizalladura y SSTs más frías comienzan a pasar factura de forma irremediable...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct7IcBjWgAA94Vk.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct7Ida1W8AAaoGc.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct7IfiqXEAAQeWK.jpg)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct6JnguUIAABv2r.jpg)
Una gran ola rompiendo en la costa Oeste de Okinawa esta mañana....
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Espeluznante...
https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1880318075524618/