-
Ha nacido NICOLE... al noreste de MATTHEW
000
WTNT45 KNHC 041500
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016
The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the
northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some
banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the
circulation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now
well-defined. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this
system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is
near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer
data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Even stronger
shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to
commence by late tomorrow. The official forecast is close to the
LGEM guidance.
The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. Over the next few days,
the forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a
mid-level high to the northwest. Therefore the cyclone is likely
to begin meandering later in the forecast period. The official
forecast track lies close to the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 25.5N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 26.8N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 28.2N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.9N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.8N 64.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 27.5N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:45pm
Se forma en aguas abiertas del Atlántico subtropical, lejos a NE de Puerto Rico, no amenaza a tierra firme:
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...24.1 NORTE 61.1 OESTE
CERCA DE 510 MILLAS...820 KM AL NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARES...29.68 PULGADAS
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/rbtop-animated_zps8iaakx4y.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/rbtop-animated_zps8iaakx4y.gif.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_0000070000114_zpsmhrmvm5l.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_0000070000114_zpsmhrmvm5l.jpg.html)
-
El pequeño ciclón parece estar intensificándose :P
Philippe Papin @pppapin 31 minHace 31 minutos Nueva York, USA Ver traducción
#Nicole intensity might be under-estimated by #Dvorak currently. Recent #microwave pass shows a mid-level #eye developing under #CDO.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuByqS9XYAA7cvN.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuBzoq3WcAE63cZ.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 8:30pm
Tormenta tropical un poco mas fuerte:
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...25.3 NORTE 63.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 490 MILLAS...790 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 300 GRADOS A 8 MPH...13 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MILIBARES...29.56 PULGADAS
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/vis-animated_zps4qoxku8y.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/vis-animated_zps4qoxku8y.gif.html)
-
Es posible que NICOLE sea ya un nuevo huracán:
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 4 minHace 4 minutos Ver traducción
With all eyes on #Matthew, take a look at #Nicole. This looks like a hurricane to me. Watch out for 11AM upgrade
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuFqrO0XgAAhCnF.jpg)
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EU_Tropical Wx ☁️ @Tropics_EU_Wx 35 minHace 35 minutos Ver traducción
UPDATE: #Nicole has formed an eye! An intermediate advisory should be issued. Probably a 75mph hurricane.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuGSevVWIAEff5X.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 1:25pm
Es evidente que Nicole es el 6° huracán de la temporada en el Atlántico:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/y_zpsftbvvgsk.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/y_zpsftbvvgsk.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/z_zpsdosfzpez.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/z_zpsdosfzpez.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/vis-animated_zpsylz07xfe.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/vis-animated_zpsylz07xfe.gif.html)
-
8)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 061744
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016
This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane.
The system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this
morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images. The
intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt. Since
the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional
strengthening seems likely. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to
increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2
models thereafter.
Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous
regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.
Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to
24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next
several days.
Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
-
Os dejo una pagina con unas webcams muy bien posicionadas y operativas.
Boynton beach, Florida.
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2dv4ahz.jpg)
http://www.pbcgov.com/webcams/slwi/
-
Es interesante ver en las imágenes de satélite los dos Huracanes.
Matthew que es un bichaco de Cat. 4 y Nicole un poco más al este de Cat. 1. La diferencia de tamaño(y por supuesto de intensidad
-
Hora local de Caracas 12:3pm
Sigue debilitándose, actualmente es una tormenta tropical cizallada por la corriente de salida en altura de Matthew y modulada por el anticiclón que define la probable trayectoria de ambos sistemas:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/1_zpslcybrms3.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/1_zpslcybrms3.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/2_zpsewokwwah.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/2_zpsewokwwah.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/vis-animated_zpsdp2ypkhl.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/vis-animated_zpsdp2ypkhl.gif.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_0000070000121_zpscqwzrtcs.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_0000070000121_zpscqwzrtcs.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_0000070000122_zpsc3nbdp4h.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_0000070000122_zpsc3nbdp4h.jpg.html)
PD: Nicole anoche alcanzó por unas breves horas la CAT2
-
Hora local de Caracas 7:25pm
Intentando acoplarse nuevamente, lidiando con la cizalladura:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/1_zpsrt1e4ooj.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/1_zpsrt1e4ooj.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/vis-animated_zps54mm5wfk.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/vis-animated_zps54mm5wfk.gif.html)
...NICOLE AHORA UN POCO MAS DEBIL...
...SE ESPERA QUE SE DEBILITE MAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMETNE HACIA
EL SUR...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.0 NORTE 65.2 OESTE
CERCA DE 365 MILLAS...590 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...SUR O 185 GRADOS A 5 MPH...7 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB...29.36 PULGADAS
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NICOLE sigue sufriendo dificultades para desarrollarse pero los pronósticos anuncian intensificación mientras se acerca a las Bermudas, a donde puede llegar como huracán de nuevo.
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 101452
TCPSP5
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL NICOLE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL152016
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST LUNES 10 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016
...NICOLE ESTA MENOS ORGANIZADA QUE EL DIA DE AYER...
...AUN SE PRONOSTICA SE FORTALEZCA ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...25.7 NORTE 65.2 OESTE
CERCA DE 455 MILLAS...735 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 6 MPH...9 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB...29.30 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias o avisos costeros en efecto.
Los intereses en Bermuda deben monitorear el progreso de este
sistema.
DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------
A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical
Nicole estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 25.7 norte, longitud
65.2 oeste. Nicole se esta moviendo hacia el norte a cerca de 6 mph
(9 km/h). Se espera un giro hacia el norte-noroeste esta noche,
seguido por un giro hacia el noroeste el martes.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 60 mph (95 km/h) con
rafagas mas altas. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento gradual
comenzando esta noche, y se pronostica que Nicole se convierta en
huracan el martes.
Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 185
millas (295 km) del centro.
La presion minima central estimada es de 992 mb (29.30 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
RESACAS: Marejadas asociadas a Nicole deberan aumentar en Bermuda
durante los proximos dias. Estas marejadas generaran condiciones
de resacas peligrosas y corrientes submarinas. Para mas informacion,
favor referirse a los productos emitidos el Servicio de Meteorologia
de Bermuda.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
La proxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Kimberlain
Traductor Cotto
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2541/7u6i86_dtq8.gif)
-
Pues sí, parece que se fortalecerá, entre las posibles direcciones que podría tomar esta Europa Occidental , y la temperatura del mar y humedad en el atlántico norte son relativamente altas , a saber hasta donde será capaz de llegar.
-
Hora local de Caracas 10:15pm
Se prevé progresiva intensificación , probable huracán CAT1 sobre Bermuda:
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...26.7 NORTE 65.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 395 MILLAS...635 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 355 GRADOS A 6 MPH...9 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB...29.30 PULGADAS
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/rbtop-animated_zpsxljodc1n.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/rbtop-animated_zpsxljodc1n.gif.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_0000070000097_zpslyqhwola.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_0000070000097_zpslyqhwola.jpg.html)
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NICOLE recupera la categoría de huracán... y pasará por encima o muy cerca de Bermudas.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6569/tyhj65u_sxw1.gif)
-
Hora local de Caracas 10pm
Aviso de huracán para Bermuda:
...NICOLE SE FORTALECE UN POCO MAS...
...PREPARACIONES EN BERMUDA DEBER SER COMPLETADOS LO MAS RAPIDO
POSIBLE...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.3 NORTE 66.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 360 MILLAS...580 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ESTACIONARIO
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...974 MB...28.76 PULGADAS
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/rbtop-animated_zpseychodjp.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/rbtop-animated_zpseychodjp.gif.html)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuk8NI1WcAEwMvc.jpg)
WMO | OMM @WMO
#HurricaneHunters view from inside the eye of Category 2 Hurricane #Nicole heading for Bermuda today #AFReserve 📸: Pilot Capt Blair
-
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 121501 RRA
TCPSP5
BOLETIN
HURACAN NICOLE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 34
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL152016
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST MIERCOLES 12 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016
...NICOLE GIRA HACIA EL NORTE..
...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PASE CERCA O SOBRE BERMUDA
EL JUEVES...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...28.4 NORTE 66.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 295 MILLAS...480 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 350 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...969 MB...28.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:
Ninguno.
RESUMEN DE RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:
Un Aviso de Huracan esta en efecto para...
* Bermuda
Un aviso de Huracan significa que condiciones de huracan son
esperadas dentro del area bajo aviso. Un aviso se emite tipicamente
36 horas antes del primer suceso de vientos con fuerza de tormenta
tropical, condiciones que dificultan los preparativos en el
exterior. Los preparativos para proteger vida y propiedad deben ser
completados.
Para informacion especifica de su area, favor mantenerse atentos a
los productos emitidos por su Servicio de Meteorologia Nacional.
DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------
A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el ojo amplio del Huracan Nicole estaba
localizado cerca de la latitud 28.4 norte, longitud 66.9 oeste.
Nicole se esta moviendo hacia el norte a cerca de 7 mph (11
km/h),y se espera un movimiento hacia el norte con un aumento en la
velocidad de traslacion hoy. Se pronostica un giro hacia el norte
noreste esta noche, seguido por un giro hacia el noreste el jueves
con un aumento adicional en la velocidad de traslacion. En la
trayectoria pronosticada, el centro del Huracan Nicole pasara cerca
o sobre Bermuda el jueves.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 100 mph (155 km/h) con
rafagas mas altas. Se pronostica algo de fortalecimiento durante las
proximas 24 horas, y se pronostica que Nicole este cerca de fuerza
de huracan mayor tarde hoy.
Los vientos con fuerza de huracan se extienden hasta 45 millas (75
km) del centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se
extienden hasta 160 millas (260 km).
La presion minima central reportada por un Avion de Reconocimiento
de la Fuerza Aerea es de 969 mb (28.62 pulgadas).
-
Brenden Moses @Cyclonebiskit 24 minHace 24 minutos Miami, FL Ver traducción
Hurricane #Nicole continuing to improve as it approaches #Bermuda. Has a good shot to reach Category 3 today/tonight.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CulCpm1WcAE0lAc.jpg)
-
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 54 minHace 54 minutos Moraga, CA Ver traducción
Since 1950, 4 hurricanes made landfall in Bermuda: Arlene('63), Emily('87), Fay('14) & Gonzalo('14). Gonzalo strongest at 110 mph. #Nicole
-
Imagen de #Nicole en #Cat3 y vientos de 160 km/h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CulMKgqWcAEviMh.jpg)
-
Animación del avance de #Nicole en imagen visible en las ultimas 4 horas
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-bDKgDHdqimE/V_5pRkQXklI/AAAAAAAAIyg/YCPs4h01T_M0j1-_VvhNpp0xN7tayt9uwCL0B/s583-no/Nicole.gif)
-
Animación del huracán #Nicole visto en el canal #IR3 (Vapor de Agua) y #RBTOP en las ultimas 7 horas
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-abB1c9YWpkw/V_53LHoWxMI/AAAAAAAAIzE/pQmBKdH12_g397mFwmBi4wnaA00GKwMegCL0B/w720-h480-no/Nicole%2Banimated.gif)
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El huracán #Nicole en #Cat3 y vientos de 178 km/h
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-28AjJRIOks8/V_6itbOiR9I/AAAAAAAAIzw/y_C6jy49ZDgK48gp5QqHWLMqimnBTRhXwCL0B/w631-h583-no/20161012.2030.goes13.x.vis1km_high.15LNICOLE.95kts-962mb-287N-668W.100pc.jpg)
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-emma9Cx_DEI/V_6iuKi9IxI/AAAAAAAAIz0/P_ke0PyWveIvNjp62hC9HwKZZMyYUEqbACL0B/w777-h583-no/GOES20152016286Y2jGYN.jpg)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Kfdgy0-Wn6g/V_6iuG1ZwqI/AAAAAAAAIz4/LStFIuKmc3E4fvz7hHADRskCV-c_o0qAQCL0B/s583-no/2016AL15_1KMSRVIS_201610122030.GIF)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:30pm
CAT3 rumbo directo a Bermuda
...NICOLE SE FORTALECE A UN HURACAN MAYOR...
...EL AVION CAZAHURACANES EN RUTA A INVESTIGAR...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...29.6 NORTE 66.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 210 MILLAS...335 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...956 MB...28.23 PULGADAS
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/rbtop-animated_zpsfbe3hbfu.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/rbtop-animated_zpsfbe3hbfu.gif.html)
-
El huracán #Nicole se intensifica y sube a #Cat4 con vientos de 212 km/h
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM AST ... 0600 UTC ... INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN ... 30.6N 66.2W
ACERCA DE MI 145 ... 230 km SO de BERMUDAS
LOS VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ... 130 MPH ... 215 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL ... NNE o 20 GRADOS A 12 MPH ... 19 KM / H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MINIMA ... 950 MB ... 28.06 PULGADAS
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-XAdUAg2iUJc/V_9AyVz424I/AAAAAAAAI0w/2Y16QqWH8tMYegkBLaKLwVIqmgvcQ0G6QCL0B/w795-h583-no/GOES07152016287muVuSc.jpg)
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-W1mgOPFTGKM/V_9AySMMiNI/AAAAAAAAI0s/iuvg6cAEPyQ9LZ2Pf34klvYrdzXqPKA-wCL0B/w799-h583-no/GOES07152016287PRoGul.jpg)
-
Madre mía... y parecia qu no iba a ser gran cosa, y ha subido a Categoría 4 en medio del Atlántico.
Está la cosa calentita por la zona... ;)
-
El huracán #Nicole mantiene su #Cat4 con vientos de 215 km/h en dirección a #Bermuda ruta del huracán.
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-NZBW1306eEI/V_9Vd7B0HBI/AAAAAAAAI1Y/LLgwvu6Z8CgDE2rOkVLrAqZ_MscbRD9wwCL0B/w979-h537/Bermuda.jpeg)
-
El radar doppler de #Bermuda ya tiene en su punto de mira a #Nicole
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuo6z8TWgAA9NEV.jpg)
-
La imagen satelital en #IR de #Bermuda también se aprecia la magnitud de #Nicole en relación a la Isla
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuo7MoCXgAAuMb8.jpg)
-
Los datos del #BWS confirman la trayectoria de #Nicole sobre #Bermuda
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuo94YqW8AACnwH.jpg)
-
Con las primeras luces del día, se aprecia la magnitud de #Nicole en #Cat3 (205 km/h), frente a la diminuta e insignificante isla #Bermuda
Pobre gente...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CupggSOWAAAK0vu.jpg)
-
El huracán #Nicole con vientos de 205 Km/h aproximándose por el SSW a 80 km de #Bermuda
Via: Gareth Nokes/@nokesy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kjD606w930
-
El ojo de #Nicole sobre #Bermuda
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-VcGKe7iBKpo/V_-c3ZWO1yI/AAAAAAAAI20/ghqcw57AaNw_IeMshw8gl9ayPg7qptxowCL0B/w765-h508/2016-10-13-1358_100km_sri.png)
-
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/wp-content/uploads/bermuda3.jpg)
Hoy tenemos que hacer un paréntesis en el seguimiento del primer temporal del otoño que afecta a buena parte de España, para dirigir nuestra mirada unos cuantos miles de kilómetros más al oeste en el Atlántico Norte. Y es que las Islas Bermudas están siendo azotadas por uno de los huracanes más intensos en esa zona desde que se tienen registros: se llama NICOLE y esta madrugada alcanzó la categoría 4 en la escala de Saffir Simpson.
http://www.cazatormentas.net/islas-bermudas-azotadas-por-uno-de-los-huracanes-mas-intensos-en-la-zona-nicole/
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En este momento #Bermuda en el centro del ojo de #Nicole
Se aprecia en su cámara...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuqAN17W8AA8FvI.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuqAPUrWIAAx5GL.jpg)
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Cierto desfase entre el ojo visto desde el sat vs. visto desde el radar -> cizalladura y eje vertical inclinado #HuracanNicole
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuqB1Z7WcAAklwx.jpg)
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El ojo del huracán #Nicole comienza a dejar atrás la isla #Bermuda
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuqUa3hWYAA_xDx.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuqUegqWIAQUBW9.jpg)
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Animación de la entrada y salida de #Nicole de #Bermuda a la vista desde su radar doppler
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-srIAAPLZFbM/V_--AuYzhAI/AAAAAAAAI3c/e32YhrqJogcQswuTkoT4fUjL3k1BVLEAQCLcB/w765-h508-no/Nicole%2BBermuda.gif)
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Marejada ciclónica al paso de #Nicole sobre #Bermuda
Via: Kevin Pearson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1T1-PGffl0
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Las #estaciones, nos han reportado los datos de #Nicole a su paso por #Bermuda
Velocidad max: 93 Km/h
Racha max: 127 Km/h
Presión: 962 hPa
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuqj86_XgAAAwS6.jpg)
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Los datos de #Pearlisland son mas contundentes que en #GeorgesIsland, siendo mas afectada por #Nicole.
Viento max: 140 km/h
Racha Max: 190 Km/h
Presión: 960,2 hPa
Precipitación: 153 mm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuqo730WEAAjXuZ.jpg)
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Datos interesantísimos... y un seguimiento impecable, como siempre :P
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El huracán #Nicole pierde fuerza a medida que asciende por el paralelo 34º y pasa a #Cat2 y vientos de 174 Km/h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuq_f6aWAAA7dMT.jpg)
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Brutal ese paso por Bermuda...
Ha tenido que ser desastroso para la isla, se ha comido el Huracán de cabo a rabo. Y esa imagen del Ojo con la isla en medio es espectacular. Pero más espectacular se ha tenido que ver desde la propia isla.
Genial seguimiento y muchas gracias!!
Enviado desde mi X6 mediante Tapatalk
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Resumen gráfico de Isla #Bermuda en 3 Imágenes al paso de #Nicole
1.-Se aproxima a la isla
2.-Pasa sobre ella
3.-Sale de la isla
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CurCMN7XYAANfLP.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CurCdTVWEAEuQoL.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CurCtmTXEAA4rAt.jpg)
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El huracán #Nicole sigue debilitándose y perdiendo fuerza cayendo a #Cat1 con vientos de 138 Km/h ya en el paralelo 36
Se aprecia su dispersión.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CutxikXWIAArTiO.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CutxjvrWgAAfKzv.jpg)
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El huracán #Nicole sigue debilitándose en #Cat1 y vientos de 130 Km/h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuvT4SBXgAANBeo.jpg)
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Con esta imagen de #Nicole, (ya casi tormenta tropical) entre lumbres de día y noche nos despedimos por hoy
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuwghn9XYAALFZl.jpg)
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Pues esa imagen era preludio de cómo NICOLE se iba y está resistiéndose a perder su naturaleza tropical... De hecho, se prevé que vuelva a ser un huracán hoy... 8) :P
000
WTNT45 KNHC 150834
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016
The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
Patches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of
the center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still
well defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt.
As mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is
difficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one
should tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition.
However, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery
continue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or
so. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with
tropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the
cyclone to become post-tropical thereafter.
After an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed
down a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about
15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough
and will continue to move with the trough on the same general track
with a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably
kick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the
previous one.
Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.
Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 38.1N 51.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 38.7N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 38.8N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 39.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 39.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 44.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 54.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 62.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uZKb-eHC5sA/WAH3vjU8z3I/AAAAAAAAFQk/eJpZbEdo6hMN8crqTKiIi3R63GOjO4gRwCL0B/w530-d-h353-rw/niccole.gif)
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#Nicole se degrada a #TS (tormenta tropical)
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/--dtBzNcbE3k/WAH9ffXleuI/AAAAAAAAI7k/ljVYDVs5Pgw1t0wbeQ7TPpO3oc3iOaL4wCL0B/w838-h583/2016AL15_4KMIRIMG_201610150915.jpeg)
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Los diagramas de fase basados en el UKMO son impresionantes... en base a esos pronósticos de reintensificación como huracán, el UKMO apuesta por una profundización muy intensa. A ver qué hace finalmente.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuzZwZVWIAAsJHz.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuzZxBUWEAAbBHl.jpg)
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La #TS #Nicole se intensifica de nuevo a #huracán #Cat1 (120 km/h)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu0GXndWEAAhQOx.jpg)
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#Nicole se parece mas a una borrasca #Atlántica por su forma de 9 o coma, que a un huracán, aunque al fin de cuentas, ambos son un #Ciclón
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu0Lf7nWAAA5ATf.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu0LiA8WEAQUMzh.jpg)
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La verdad es que es un caso extraordinario, precioso............. :o :o :o
¿Dónde has visto que haya recuperado el estatus de huracán? Porque no veo que el CNH haya actualizado su abanico de productos sobre NICOLE...
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(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qNcyP2-OWyU/WAJ1kwmMoPI/AAAAAAAAFRc/Hp-tL2Zh1ZMYUH32CnnoxO689JxkFOgxwCJoC/w530-h353-rw/niccoll.gif)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 151459
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016
Nicole has intensified since the last advisory, likely due to
baroclinic influences from a nearby upper-level trough.
Just-received ASCAT-B data shows 70-75 kt winds to the southwest of
the center, and a drifting buoy south of the center reported a
pressure 966.6 mb at 1000 UTC, suggesting a falling
central pressure. Based on these data, the intensity is increased
to 75 kt. It should be noted that the cloud pattern has some
characteristics of a subtropical cyclone due to the cyclone's
interaction with the upper-level trough.
The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central
convection for the next 48 hours or so, indicating that Nicole is
likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics despite cooler
air entraining into the circulation. After that time, the cyclone
should move over sea surface temperatures of 16 deg C or less that
should cause the central convection to dissipate. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become post-tropical by 72
hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours. The new intensity
forecast is adjusted upward for the first 12 hours based on the
current intensity, and after that it is an update of the previous
forecast. Overall, the forecast lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance.
Nicole appears to be slowing its forward motion, and the motion
estimate is now 075/11. A slow easterly motion is expected during
the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is an area of weaker flow
in the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a large
mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should steer the
cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed. The
new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.
Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.
Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 50.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 39.8N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 41.1N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 47.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 19/1200Z 56.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 64.5N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Hora local de Caracas 3:25pm
Nicole y su larga "cola": un frente frío. Es evidente que ya no es un huracán:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zps5miiekie.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zps5miiekie.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/vis-animated_zpsac0ivpuw.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/vis-animated_zpsac0ivpuw.gif.html)
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 50.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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El huracán #Nicole se mantiene en #Cat1 y vientos de 140 Km/h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu1VSr7WAAAzbal.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu1VSsVWAAAY4Hg.jpg)
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Simplemente maravilloso... un huracán con estructura híbrida... no creo que haya muchos casos así...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 152035
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016
Nicole is currently showing a hybrid structure. On the larger
scale, the system has the appearance of an extratropical low, with
cold air advection occurring over the southern semicircle and a
developing frontal cloud band east through south of the center.
However, the system has secluded an area of warm air near the
center where a tropical cyclone wind and temperature structure
exists. The earlier scatterometer overpass showed the radius of
maximum winds to be about 75 n mi, and the warm core is strong
enough to produce hurricane-strength AMSU intensity estimates.
Based on little change in the appearance of the cloud pattern since
the last advisory, the intensity is held at 75 kt.
The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central
convection for the next 36-48 hours, indicating that Nicole is
likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics. After that
time, the cyclone should move over sea surface temperatures of 16
deg C or less that should cause the central convection to dissipate.
Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become
post-tropical by 72 hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours.
The latest dynamical model guidance forecasts the cyclone to be
absorbed by another extratropical low by 120 hours, and that is now
reflected in the intensity forecast. The new forecast is otherwise
an update of the previous forecast.
The initial motion is now 075/10. A slow easterly motion is
expected during the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is in an
area of weaker flow in the mid-latitude westerlies. After that
time, a large mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should
steer Nicole north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed.
The new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and
lies near the various consensus models.
Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.
Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 39.4N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 39.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 39.8N 46.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 40.6N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 50.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 19/1800Z 60.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
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NICOLE se mantiene como huracán, con misma intensidad que ayer... Además, hoy en el infrarrojo parece menos subtropical que ayer. Sin embargo, está afectado por un ramal del chorro polar, por lo que su naturaleza híbrida es manifiesta.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3953/ryh65_upp4.gif)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu4SbqcWIAIQ9au.jpg)
000
WTNT35 KNHC 160832
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016
...HURRICANE NICOLE GENERATING LARGE SWELLS IN THE ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 47.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 47.7 West. Nicole is moving
toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today. A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Nicole is expected to maintain hurricane strength through Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda, the United
States east coast from the Carolinas northward, and the coastline of
Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole
should begin to affect the United States east coast south of the
Carolinas, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward
Islands during the early part of next week. These swells will
create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to
products being issued by your local weather office for more
information.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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El huracán #Nicole sigue manteniendo su condición tras 24 como #Cat1 con vientos de 140 Km/h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu42ultXgAEWyBk.jpg)
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#Nicole continua un día mas como huracán #Cat1 y vientos de 130 Km/h entre el paralelo 40 y 41
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu9FyULWgAAJzVx.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu9FyX0WAAACstU.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu9F04IW8AEOWDR.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu9F24dWgAAk_nE.jpg)
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Qué maravilla de imágenes................ :o :o :o
Algunas notas interesantes:
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach
#Nicole is a hurricane north of 40°N - the 4th hurricane to do so this late in the season since 2000 (Michael-'00, Wilma-'05, Gonzalo-'14).
Nicole es un huracán por encima de los 40ºN, el 4º huracán en hacerlo tan tarde en la temporada desde los años 2000 (Michael, 00; Wilma, 05; Gonzalo, 14).
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 19 hHace 19 horas Walnut Creek, CA
Atlantic TCs have generated 66 ACE units so far this month - the most on record (since 1851) between 10/1-10/16. #Matthew #Nicole
Entre MATTHEW y NICOLE han generado 66 unidades de ACE durante lo que llevamos de mes, que es récord desde 1851 entre los días 1 y 16...
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Espectacular visión de Nicole al salir el sol...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu9vYLlWAAAUIKw.jpg)
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El huracán #Nicole sigue en #Cat1 y vientos de 120 Km/h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu_lyRVXYAQ2auy.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu_lz9aXEAEMk1N.jpg)
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#Nicole pasa a #TS Tormenta Tropical con vientos de 100 Km/h en el paralelo 46
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvCW3aoWAAAbUbl.jpg)
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(http://www.cazatormentas.net/wp-content/uploads/nicsnow4.jpg)
Después de casi 14 días como ciclón tropical, y tras establecer un nuevo récord como el más duradero para un mes de octubre desde el año 1906, el que fuera huracán NICOLE se dirige hacia Groenlandia como un poderoso ciclón post-tropical y dispuesto a dejar una inmensa nevada.
http://www.cazatormentas.net/tremenda-acumulacion-de-nieve-en-groenlandia-gracias-al-huracan-nicole/