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Autor Tema: Tormenta tropical BONNIE 02L, Atlantico Occidental, mayo 2016  (Leído 4920 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Finalmente el NHC comenzó a emitir avisos sobre la depresión tropical 02L durante la pasada madrugada en España...

En estos momentos está aumentando la convección y cabe la posibilidad de que se convierta en tormenta tropical antes de que haga impacto en tierra.



Aspecto satelital muy bueno, con un gran borbotón convectivo y overshooting que intensa acoplarse al centro de la depresión. Gran oportunidad de convertirse en tormenta tropical y tomar el nombre de BONNIE.

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000
WTNT42 KNHC 280836
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The depression has not become any better organized since yesterday.
The convection is located to the northwest of the low-level center
due to southeasterly shear, and it is also limited due to the fact
that the cyclone has been moving over cooler waters. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt based on continuity. The depression has a small opportunity to
strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it moves over the
warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, although the shear is not
favorable for intensification. This is consistent with most of the
intensity guidance, which do not show any notable increase of the
winds. In between 24 and 36 hours, the circulation will be
interacting with land, and weakening should begin. By 72 hours or
sooner, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low.

Although the low-level center is difficult to locate on satellite
imagery, the best estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at
12 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge
of a mid-level ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer the
cyclone on the same track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a
short wave trough is forecast to approach from the west and force
the cyclone to turn to the east-northeast at a very slow pace. The
NHC forecast is an extrapolation of the previous one, and it
follows the trend of the GFS and the ECMWF models very closely. The
NHC forecast brings the center of the cyclone near the South
Carolina coast between 24 and 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 29.9N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 31.0N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 32.4N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 32.8N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z 33.0N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0600Z 33.5N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z 35.0N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
« Última modificación: Mayo 29, 2016, 15:50:08 pm por Gale »

Desconectado elmer200

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Re:Depresion tropical 02L, Atlantico Occidental, mayo 2016
« Respuesta #1 en: Mayo 28, 2016, 15:59:04 pm »
No creo que llegue lejos como TT, le falta algo de fortalecimiento en cuanto a vientos de intensidad.

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Re:Tormenta tropical BONNIE 02L, Atlantico Occidental, mayo 2016
« Respuesta #2 en: Mayo 29, 2016, 15:53:32 pm »
Durante la jornada de ayer, la DT 02L consiguió convertirse en la segunda tormenta nombrada de la temporada, antes de que esta comience de forma oficial ;D

En la madrugada de hoy en la zona ha hecho impacto en tierra, entrando en Carolina del Sur, y con un notable debilitamiento del ciclón.


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Re:Tormenta tropical BONNIE 02L, Atlantico Occidental, mayo 2016
« Respuesta #3 en: Junio 02, 2016, 12:11:30 pm »
Bonnie está intentando renacer de sus cenizas... Regeneró convección durante la madrugada e incluso intentó desarrollar un ojo y un anillo convectivo. Incomprensiblemente, el CNH no lo ha reflejado convenientemente.

https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/738256261091713024

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Re:Tormenta tropical BONNIE 02L, Atlantico Occidental, mayo 2016
« Respuesta #4 en: Junio 02, 2016, 18:29:43 pm »
No podía ser de otra manera: el CNH lo revive finalmente, clasificándola como depresión tropical Bonnie ;D



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000
WTNT42 KNHC 021434
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low
pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent
organized convection near the center.  Based on this, the system is
again being designated as a tropical depression.
  The initial
intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on
surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity
estimate of 25 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 055/5.  Bonnie is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone
should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.  The
track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which
are tightly clustered.

The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters
for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light.
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during
that time.  After that, increasing shear and sea surface
temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a
remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 35.1N  75.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 35.3N  74.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 35.8N  72.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 36.1N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 36.1N  66.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Re:Tormenta tropical BONNIE 02L, Atlantico Occidental, mayo 2016
« Respuesta #5 en: Junio 04, 2016, 11:02:48 am »
Durante la pasada noche Bonnie recuperó el estatus de tormenta tropical, aunque en estos momentos comienza a debilitarse de nuevo al alejarse de las aguas cálidas de la Corriente del Golfo...

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000
WTNT42 KNHC 040841
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016

Deep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of
thunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few
hours.  The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the
convective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear.  An
earlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was
devoid of convection.  It is assumed that, with the new convective
burst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist.  Thus, the
initial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt.  A further increase in
shear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the
cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours.  Global models
show Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants
absorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon
after that.  The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be
carried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow
over the western Atlantic.  The track model guidance shows Bonnie
moving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to
dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and
is slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 35.9N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 35.5N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 34.9N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 34.4N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


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Re:Tormenta tropical BONNIE 02L, Atlantico Occidental, mayo 2016
« Respuesta #6 en: Junio 05, 2016, 15:25:44 pm »
Bonnie ha pasado ya a la historia. Ayer a última hora se declaró como baja remanente sin posibilidad de regeneración 8)

 



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